'Recovery Still Fragile' - Chinese Bond Yields Hit Record Lows Despite Surprise GDP 'Beat'

China's Q4 GDP and December industrial production reports beat market expectations meaningfully, with the 2024 full-year GDP growth target officially reached (what an amazing coincidence).

Real GDP growth rose notably to +5.4% yoy in Q4 from +4.6% yoy in Q3, driven by the acceleration of sequential growth on the back of more coordinated and forceful policy easing and export frontloading due to concerns about potential US tariff hikes.

“The biggest bright spot in the economy last year was exports, which was very strong especially if price factor was excluded,” Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas SA.

“That means the biggest problem this year will be US tariffs.”