What The UK Trade Deal Mean For US-China Negotiations And Other Trading Partners

The details of the US-UK deal (which saw the UK "use flattery not escalation") suggest that the US 10% baseline tariff is likely to remain in place for other trading partners with virtually no exceptions, but signals more flexibility than expected on sectoral tariffs. In his comments on Thursday, President Trump also took an unusually optimistic tone on upcoming talks with China - even if he subsequently toned down the rhetoric this morning by saying "80% tariffs on China seems right" - but for the second time this week he indicated that he might re-propose country-specific tariff rates in the near future.

Below we excerpt from the latest note by Goldman chief political economist Alec Phillips, on what he believes are the three main takeaways from the US-UK trade deal:

• 1. Trump announced a preliminary trade deal with the UK that leaves in place the US 10% baseline tariff but scales back sectoral tariffs on autos and steel/aluminum, and appears to lay the foundation for preferential treatment for the pharmaceutical tariffs the Trump administration is considering. The deal appears to reduce UK tariffs on certain agricultural products (e.g., beef, ethanol) from the US, and also exempts UK aerospace parts from US tariffs. Together, these changes look like they would reduce the US effective tariff rate by less than 0.1pp.