'Soft' survey data has been serially disappointing in recent weeks, catching down to the reality of 'hard' data...
So, it was not surprising that analysts forecast for this morning's Chicago PMI to remain in contraction at 46 (up very modestly from 44 in October).
However, when the actual print hit - many traders double-take'd as the 55.8 print was a 13 standard deviation beat to expectations...
It is one of the biggest beats in the series history...
And one of the biggest MoM increases in the economic series' history.
This is the first reading above 50 (manufacturing economic expansion) since August 2022.
Under the hood, 6 of the components increased MoM...
Prices paid rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion
New orders rose and the direction reversed; signaling expansion
Employment rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion
Inventories rose and the direction reversed; signaling expansion
Supplier deliveries rose and the direction reversed; signaling expansion
Production rose and the direction reversed; signaling expansion
Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Finally, we note some have suggested this 'beat' is due to the return of autoworkers after the lengthy strikes.
But we ask, were the analysts - who consensus expectations were for contraction to continue - unaware that the strike was over?