"A Deal For The World": Russian Diesel Exports Double Under Trump's Waiver, And America Gets None Of It

Five weeks after Trump announced that Putin would "immediately" supply diesel to the "American and Global Marketplace," we can now check the receipts.

The global marketplace did fine. The American one got nothing.

According to the FT, citing Kpler data, Russia shipped 271,000 barrels a day of diesel in October, double the 135,000 b/d it exported in September. The extra barrels went to Brazil, Turkey and elsewhere. Meanwhile, not a single cargo generated by the sanctions waiver has reached a US port, two US-bound tankers have changed course, and the last one is idling off the East Coast waiting for someone, anyone, to buy it.

Regular readers know we have been tracking the diesel crisis since March, and we were skeptical of the Trump-Putin deal from the moment it hit the tape on Oct 9, mostly because of the arithmetic. It turns out the arithmetic was the least of the deal's problems.

"A Deal For The World"

First, the numbers. Kpler's tally is backed by Energy Aspects, whose head of geopolitics Richard Bronze told the FT that Russian diesel exports rose from 120,000 b/d in September to 260,000 b/d in October. That sounds impressive until you see the comparison he offered: the five-year average for October is roughly 700,000 b/d. In other words, Russia doubled its exports to barely a third of a normal October.

S&P Global's Commodities at Sea data tell the same story in tonnes: Russian diesel and gasoil loadings totaled 985,000 mt in October, against roughly 2.7 million mt in November 2025. Moscow says it wants to export about 2.15 million tonnes this month, though Deputy PM Alexander Novak himself conceded that renewed refinery strikes could cut that number. (We'll take the under.)

The White House, for its part, says that is all according to plan. A White House official told the FT that more Russian diesel on the global market will help ease prices for Americans, in line with the deal Trump struck with Putin:

“As the President has said, this is a deal for the world. This deal was made to add diesel supply to the global market — lowering prices for Americans and the world — which is exactly what will be done.”

That is a convenient reading of a Truth Social post that promised diesel to the "American" marketplace first. Then again, diesel is a global commodity, and a barrel that lands in Santos is a barrel the Gulf Coast doesn't have to ship to Brazil, so the White House isn't entirely wrong. It is just a much less exciting claim than the one made on Oct 9:

Brazil, Turkey... Anywhere But New York

Then there is the US leg of the trade, which so far exists mostly on vessel-tracking screens.

As we reported on Oct 21, the first US-bound cargo, the Malta-flagged Agioi Fanendes, loaded about 40,000 tonnes of ultra-low sulfur diesel at Primorsk on Oct 22 and signaled New York, due around Nov 7. Two more tankers, the Leruo and the Talisman, followed, for a combined ~140,000 tonnes. Then the lawyers showed up:

• A bipartisan group of lawmakers warned banks and the port authorities of New York/New Jersey, Houston, Beaumont and Corpus Christi that handling the cargoes could violate the 2022 ban on Russian energy imports.
• Sen. Richard Blumenthal wrote directly to the Agioi Fanendes' Greek owner, warning him that discharging the cargo would make him party to an illegal transaction (per Maritime Executive).
• New Jersey governor Mikie Sherrill, whose state is the delivery point for New York Harbor, told port and terminal operators to turn the tankers away or face harsh penalties, arguing that Treasury's license can't override a law passed by Congress.

The result, as we noted on Nov 3: the Leruo switched its destination to Brazil, the Talisman diverted into the Mediterranean, and the Agioi Fanendes changed its destination to "for orders." Per Bloomberg, it turned around roughly 400 nautical miles from New York; Reuters later found it halted off the East Coast, and the FT says it is still there, waiting for a buyer. The White House says negotiations with the vessel's owner are continuing, which is a remarkably candid way of saying nobody has bought it yet.

Meanwhile, the barrels that did leave Russia found homes quickly. Brazil has overtaken Turkey as the top destination for Russian diesel so far in November, per Bloomberg, which is also when we tweeted this:

Some perspective on what America is missing: the 40,000 tonnes aboard the Agioi Fanendes are roughly 300,000 barrels. The US burns about 4 million barrels of distillate a day, so the last US-bound cargo of Russian diesel covers less than two hours of American demand (napkin math, but not by much). Phillips 66's Brian Mandell said as much on his company's earnings call, calling Russian supply "a drop in the bucket" relative to how much distillate is offline.

The Refinery Problem, Again

Why did Russian exports double in the first place? Energy Aspects' Richard Bronze was blunt about what did the work: Russian refineries were able to ramp up because Ukraine paused its drone campaign. “If we want to attribute it, it would be the US pressure and Trump’s announcement of an energy ceasefire,” he said.

That pause is over. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries resumed on Oct 30 after a two-week break, and on Oct 31 Moscow extended its diesel export ban yet again (it had already pushed it to Oct. 31), this time through the end of January, with exceptions carved out to keep the Trump deal alive on paper. Bronze told the FT he now expects Russian exports in the coming months to be very lackluster. Kpler's Sumit Ritolia added that Moscow will prioritize the home market, especially as it is now running short of gasoline and rationing it:

“Russian refinery operations remain under significant pressure. We expect them to remain constrained around 4mn b/d in the near term, with limited prospects for a meaningful recovery as attacks continue,” he said.

Recall our point back on Oct 9: Russia's binding constraint is its refineries, and a six-month OFAC waiver doesn't fix a crude unit that was hit by a drone last week.

Goldman's numbers show just how big that refinery problem is. In its October commodity index commentary (available to pro subs), the bank's commodities desk wrote that distillate cracks traded a roughly $15/bbl range during the month on headlines about strategic stock releases, refinery strikes and, yes, Russian diesel exports, before laying out the damage:

Singapore middle-distillate stocks were down 44% year-on-year, while ARA jet-fuel stocks were down 56%. Refiners continued to prioritise diesel output, constraining the availability of other products. Persistent refinery damage continues to constrain product supply, with Middle East outages around 1.6mb/d above seasonal norms and Russian outages 4.2mb/d above seasonal norms. Planned global refinery maintenance was down 1.7mb/d, or 27%, year-on-year, largely driven by postponed US maintenance. Deferred maintenance was expected to prolong product supply weakness into 2027, with planned maintenance rising sharply in Q2.

Put differently, Russian refinery outages alone are running about 4.2 million b/d above seasonal norms, a hole that dwarfs October's entire 271,000 b/d of diesel exports. Goldman's Asia refining team (in "Asia Refining: Robust 2027 margins even in near-term de-escalation scenarios", also available to pro subs) models combined Middle East and Russian outages as peaking near 7 million b/d this summer, and in its baseline they don't normalize until December 2027:

Even If Peace Breaks Out...

Which brings us to the punchline, at least for anyone hoping that a diesel deal (or a peace deal) delivers cheap fuel by spring.

Goldman's base case says the global refining system stays tight well into 2027 even in a scenario where every Middle East and Russian outage magically disappears in January, as Goldman's Jerry Shen summarized the bank's Asia refining team's work in a note to clients (available to pro subs):

Surprisingly, even in the most aggressive normalization scenario—where Middle East and Russian refinery outages completely vanish by January 2027—GIR still models the 2027E Singapore gross refining margin (GRM) at a highly profitable $19/bbl. To put that into perspective, the historical mid-cycle average is just $10/bbl. Under their baseline scenario, margins surge to $33/bbl.

In other words, Goldman's best case for refining margins is still almost double the historical mid-cycle, and the reason is mundane: product inventories have built far less than crude. Singapore middle-distillate stocks are down 44% y/y, per the desk, and the US is in worse shape. As we reported earlier this month, US diesel inventories slid below 100 million barrels for the first time since 2003.

There is also a timing problem nobody is talking about. Refiners postponed this fall's maintenance to run flat out, so global planned maintenance is down 27% y/y, which means a lot of it lands next spring. Goldman expects 2027Q2 maintenance to be especially elevated, with Russia and the Middle East running near seasonal norms while Asia ex-China runs about 50% above its normal level:

Translation: the next diesel squeeze is already on the calendar, and it doesn't need a single drone to happen. No wonder the global diesel crunch is set to last well into 2027.

Same Barrels, Different Map

So where does that leave the diesel deal? Probably about where the skeptics put it on day one. Russia got a sanctions waiver through April 7 and a political win; Brazil and Turkey got the barrels; and US consumers got the indirect benefit of a few hundred thousand extra barrels a day sloshing around a global market that is short several million. AAA had pump diesel around $6.29 a gallon at the start of November, down from the $6.50+ record in September, which has a lot more to do with Iran headlines than with anything leaving Primorsk.

Could the White House still be right that the world gets a bit more diesel and Americans pay a bit less? Sure, at the margin. But with Ukraine back to hitting refineries, Moscow rationing its own gasoline, and Goldman modeling a tight product market into 2027 even in the rosiest scenario, the more likely outcome is that Russian exports fade back toward "lackluster" just as US inventories hit multi-decade lows. Relief, if it comes, will come from Hormuz and from refiners' maintenance calendars, not from the Kremlin.

And the Agioi Fanendes? Last seen idling off the East Coast, carrying less than two hours of American demand that nobody is allowed to buy. A deal for the world indeed.

Much more in the full Goldman "Asia Refining" note and the GS commodities desk's October commentary, both available to pro subs.