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Gulf Exports Roar Back To Pre-War Levels, Goldman Says; Blas Sees "Trump Has Advantage" On Hormuz

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Authored...

The US conflict with Iran has been ongoing for seven months and will soon enter its eighth month. Diplomatic signals this week, along with another request for a US SPR dump and reports of Gulf oil export flows improving toward prewar levels, have sent Brent crude futures down to around $103 a barrel.

Goldman analysts Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, Alexandra Paulus and Daan Struyven have penned a new note explaining that estimated "dark exports" have helped boost Persian Gulf oil exports to 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, back to prewar levels and an encouraging development ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.

"We estimate that Persian Gulf oil exports, including estimated "dark exports", have recovered to 23.3mb/d over the last week, in line with their 2025 average, as exports doubled in September," the analysts wrote. 

They said, "The remarkable adaptation of both Middle East supply and China import demand supports our base case that Brent prices moderate to $85/bbl by year-end and to $80 in 2027." 

Grigsby attributed much of the export-bound surge to increased Hormuz shipments, including ship-to-ship transfers. Those flows have offset a drone attack that paralyzed Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, but the most recent reports say the pipeline has restarted. 

Crude accounted for nearly 90% of September's export recovery in the Gulf area, reaching 19 million barrels a day over the past week, or 108% of its 2025 average.

But the analysts warned that exports of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel remained at just half their 2025 average.

Saudis led the recovery. 

They also pointed out "a divergence between the fall of Iranian exports and the rise of exports of other Persian Gulf producers."

Taken together, what does this mean for the Trump administration? 

Well, Bloomberg commodities expert Javier Blas wrote in an opinion piece that President Trump has gained the upper hand in the battle over the maritime chokepoint, with crude exports from US allies through Hormuz and bypass routes recovering toward prewar levels.

Blas wrote:

I don't know who will win the US-Iran war. But if you ask me who's prevailing in the battle over the Strait of Hormuz, it's clear US President Donald Trump has the advantage. As much as Tehran says the opposite, the strait is effectively wide open. Crude oil exports from regional US allies via the waterway, plus bypass routes, have risen to about 80% of prewar levels. Iran, meanwhile, has seen its own oil exports plunge to zero.

A couple of months ago, the surge in oil shipments would have been seen as a major American victory. Yet Brent crude, the oil price benchmark, remains above $100 a barrel. Inside the White House, some must be asking themselves: If this is winning, what would losing look like?

Yet restoring crude flows addresses only one part of the global energy shock. Goldman energy analyst Nikhil Bhandari warned last week that the global refining crisis could extend well into 2027. Russia still has a refinery crisis and export halts of crude products were just extended into fall. 

Blas' view is that Trump is gaining control of Hormuz while Tehran's leverage has eroded. But whether that translates into lower fuel bills depends on the refining crisis Bhandari described: fuel prices will remain elevated into next year (read the report here).

Professional subscribers can read the full note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

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