Russia's Oil Revenue Sinks As Urals Falls To $59

Submitted by Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

Russia collected 326.2 billion rubles, or about $3.76 billion, in net oil revenue in August, down 22% from a year earlier and the lowest monthly total since February.

Russia’s tax authority calculated August oil revenues using a crude price of just over $59 per barrel. Urals, Russia’s main export grade, averaged almost $95 per barrel during the spring after the Iran war pushed buyers toward barrels outside the Persian Gulf.

Total Russian oil and gas revenue fell 16% year over year in August to 424 billion rubles. Oil and gas provide roughly one-fifth of federal budget revenue.

August oil receipts were more than 60% below July, which included a large scheduled payment from Russia’s profit-based tax on producers.

Moscow also paid refiners more than 197 billion rubles in August to maintain domestic fuel supplies. Refinery subsidies have reached almost 916 billion rubles since January.

Ukrainian drone strikes have repeatedly disrupted Russian refineries this year. Russia responded with restrictions on gasoline and diesel exports and increased fuel imports as domestic supplies tightened.

The refinery outages have also reduced Russia’s ability to absorb its own crude production. Every barrel that cannot enter a refinery must move into storage, find export capacity or remain underground.

Export capacity has developed problems of its own. Ukrainian attacks have disrupted terminals and shipping operations in the Black Sea and Baltic, reducing Russia’s ability to redirect crude displaced by refinery outages.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Thursday that Russia’s recent production decline should reverse as refineries restart.

Rystad Energy expects a deeper hit. The consultancy recently cut its 2026 Russian crude production forecast to 8.95 million barrels per day and expects output to decline to roughly 8.6 million bpd in 2027.

Russia benefited earlier this year from a sharp increase in global oil prices. August brought Urals back near $59, refinery subsidies above $2 billion for the month, fuel export restrictions and additional pressure on crude production.