A Brexit Reversal? Ha! Forget About It, Won't Happen

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Sep 13, 2023 - 09:00 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via,

The idea of a Brexit reversal surfaced over the weekend. Silly Remoaners, let it go and be happy.

Image from The Observer via a Tweet below.

Wishful Thinking

Will Hutton is hardly alone in campaigning to rejoin the EU by putting his focus and ire on the Conservative Party, but in doing so, he must gloss over the fact that it was a Tory government that lead the campaign to ‘Remain’ in 2016, and that many Conservatives never wanted to leave; forced into supporting independence because of the people’s instruction. And if the UK were to ever vote in support of applying for membership again, parochial Tory-bashing won’t suffice. Such a campaign would have to address, head-on, the EU’s failings and inadequacies. It would also have to address what the EU has become since 2016, and most crucially, what it hopes to become in the future. But the pro-EU movement in Britain has always been more focused on what the EU isn’t, rather than what it is. It has shied away from grand constitutional debates about the long-term direction of the EU, and also refrained from criticizing Brussels too much, no doubt concerned about feeding the skepticism all humans share of large, distant, unaccountable institutions determining how we live our lives. And that strategy not to engage more frankly with the EU and its grand ambitions was probably their biggest mistake prior to 2016. People like Will Hutton failed to pressure their British and European colleagues in Brussels to improve transparency, democracy and accountability. They failed to shift the direction the EU was taking towards one UK voters could more readily accept. And in doing so, the seeds of Brexit were sown. ….

if you want to convince most people, you are going to have to move beyond simple Conservative and eurosceptic bashing. You are going to have to talk about the wart-covered EU elephant in the corner of the room. That may not be what readers of the Guardian or Observer are likely to click on, but it is what they will have to wrestle with if they are ever to succeed in taking Britain back into the EU.

A Few Questions

Would the EU want the UK back? If so, on what basis? How?

The UK cannot undo Brexit by a vote. The EU would have to agree. Some countries in the EU might not want the UK back at all, and it would have to be unanimous.

But assume the EU magically displayed a green light. On what basis would the light be green?

The UK would not get the same deal as before. It would have to join the Eurozone Monetary Union (EMU). How would that vote go in the UK?

Consider Schengen and freedom of movement. The UK had an opt out on that. It won’t now. So how would that vote go in the UK?

What about the UK rebate?

For those in the US who have no idea what I am talking about, the UK rebate was a financial mechanism that reduced the United Kingdom’s contribution to the EU budget since 1985.

Does anyone think the EU will let the UK contribute less than other nations to the EU slush fund?

Six Brexit Reversal Referendum Questions

  • Do you agree to abandon the British Pound for the Euro?

  • Do you agree to turn over monetary policy to the ECB?

  • Do you agree to pay your fair share into the EU budget slush fund?

  • Do you agree to the EU’s freedom of movement clause and accept all EU immigrants?

  • Do you agree to subjugate yourselves to the whims of the European Court of Justice?

  • Do you agree to let the EU dictate 100% of your trade policies?

If the answer to any of those is no, the the EU will not let the UK back in the EU.

Some might think my questions are harshly worded. But my wording is mild compared to how the opposition would phrase things if there ever was a serious proposal to rejoin.

Two Locks and a Bonus Kicker

Brexit reversal won’t happen because It’s not just a matter holding a referendum to back in. The conditions for rejoining are not the same conditions the EU granted the UK when it first joined. And the EU might not want the UK back in even if the UK did agree to those terms.

Labour and even some Tory remoaners will piss and moan and blame everything that goes wrong on Brexit. But not even Labour would accept the conditions the EU would require to rejoin the club.

Big UK Economic Upgrade

Please note that the UK economy, blamed on Brexit, was much stronger than previously reported. On September 1, The Independent commented on the UK ‘Extraordinary’ GDP Upgrade.

Panmure Gordon chief economist Simon French called the revision “extraordinary” and said “the entire UK economic narrative – post pandemic – has just been revised away”.

The changes, which added almost 2 per cent to the size of Britain’s economy, mean the UK no longer has the worst growth record among G7 countries since 2019.

They also show Britain’s economy is likely outperforming Germany, Europe’s biggest economy.

The Great Escape

Escaping the EU nannycrats was a great decision. The EU stifles trade, thinking, and competitiveness. Every year global trade talks fail because of the EU.

France has a veto and uses it to save the family farm. It took decades for the EU to work out a simple trade agreement with Canada. Two small countries did not like some simple aspect and nearly delayed the deal forever.

Google, Microsoft, and Amazon would never form in the EU because the EU would bust them apart in the name of “competition” before they ever got going.

Look at Germany, more interested in protecting diesel, and cheating to do it, than lead any innovation in EVs. The EU lagged in phones, in EVs, and is 100 percent certain to lag in AI.

It takes unanimous opinion to do nearly anything in the EU, a fundamental flaw of both the EU and EMU.

And one interest rate surely does not fit the likes of the UK, Germany, Greece, Italy, and Spain, let alone all of the other countries on a forced, but time uncertain, path to join the EMU.

Why would the UK want to be on the hook to bail out bank failures in Italy, Greece, or for that matter Germany. Germany’s industrial production is imploding right now.

Brexit Was Not a Bad Decision and Did Not Fail

It’s important to understand that Brexit did not fail. Rather, the Tories failed at taking advantage of the opportunities of Brexit.

For discussion, please see my May 22, 2023 post Contrary to Popular Myth, Brexit Was Not a Bad Decision and Did Not Fail

OK Remoaners give it up. The decision has been made and no one in their right mind would agree to the conditions and risks necessary to get back in.

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