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First Venezuela, Next Iran?

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
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Top US officials have been eager to capitalize on the Trump-ordered military raid on Caracas, which saw the Venezuelan capital bombed and its longtime socialist leader Nicolás Maduro captured without major incident and transferred to US soil where's facing federal drug charges related to narco-trafficking and gun-running.

Hawkish pundits are already clamoring for more muscular action targeting Tehran (and other supposed 'rogue' actors) at a moment of ongoing economic protests in Iran pressuring Islamic Republic leaders. Trump is issuing veiled threats to the governments of Cuba, Colombia, and Mexico - but many are asking: is Iran next? Various open source intelligence channels (OSINT) on Sunday have highlighted some unusual American military activity in the UK and Europe, for example...

It's hard to know if this constitutes the usual Pentagon logistical operations in Europe, but it does indeed raise questions regarding Washington's force posture vis-a-vis Iran. 

One theme of the last several months of Trump's military build-up in the southern Caribbean has been that in sending so many warships to Venezuelan waters, including at least one nuclear-powered submarine and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group, is that this level of military asset concentration in Latin America means less deadly or long-range assets in the Middle East (CENTCOM) area of operation.

But could we be witnessing a quick pivot, now with Maduro awaiting trial in New York?

There are various things to consider when it comes to potential White House discussions on the matter. First, it must be recalled that Trump wisely declared mission accomplished when US bombers 'obliterated' (in the US estimation) Iran's three most important nuclear development sites at the tail-end of the June Israel-Iran war, which lasted just 12 days. There was no sustained American bombing campaign against Iran, also as Trump knows that "doing another Iraq" would be hugely unpopular at home.

There's another difficult reality when it comes to US actions targeting Iran, which behind Venezuela also possesses among the world's biggest proven reserves of crude oil. Iran is a country of over 90 million people, has a large military overseen by the elite IRGC, has long been 'military tested' (the 1980's Iran-Iraq war comes to mind), and has one of the world's premier arsenals of mid and long-range ballistic missiles. It even posses hypersonic capabilities (which the Israelis also learned). Because of this, last June Israeli warplanes were careful to operate largely outside Iranian airspace, and even though many anti-air missile sites were allegedly destroyed, this threat remains strong.

Reports of more IRGC missile tests over Iran Sunday night into Monday...

Trump will of course leave people guessing in his 'shoot from the hip' fashion. After all, the operation to topple Maduro was held as a tightly guarded secret even from many top Pentagon officials (in terms of the timing and "need to know" details just before it was launched). Here's what one Conservative, anti-Iran pundit has to say:

First Venezuela, next Iran. These military flights signify a barrel of whoop-ass, not just a can. Likely, these show deployments of the 101st Airborne AND the 1st Battalion, 75th Ranger Regiment.

The US Navy Fleet Tracker is oddly dark as well. We have 11 Aircraft Carriers, look at the 12/29/25 update compared to the 03/17/25 update. We are no longer posturing, we are in OPSEC mode. In Kuwait, the USA maintains roughly 13,500 troops at any given time. These troops serve as a Middle East response force (among other missions).

So why are the 1/75 Rangers and 101st Airborne deployments significant? The 75th Ranger Regiment's primary mission is airfield seizures. The 101st is an Air Assault unit. The USA just moved a huge strategic asset designed to open the gates of hell into whatever country we choose.

And as for keeping people guessing, there was this remark from Trump just days ahead of the operation to kidnap Maduro. "If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go," Trump posted on Truth Social last Monday.

Would Russia comes to Iran's defense if it is threatened with large-scale military action? Certainly the vehement condemnations would fly from Moscow, but Russia's military is obviously busy doing other things...

Regardless of if the US deescalates ongoing tensions with Tehran, or if Trump chooses to soon escalate, the Ayatollah and Islamic Republic leaders just got a lot more nervous and uncomfortable as they helplessly watch their longtime ally Maduro being hauled before a US federal court on American soil.

For now the most likely scenario is that Trump will be content to see where the now weeklong protests inside Iran go, as they threaten societal stability, and as the US-led sanctions regimen continues to wreak devastation. It is also likely that he would unleash Israel first, and not send US troops for direct action - akin to what happened in the last June bombing raids.

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"It's time"... another Israeli direct threat aimed at Iran:

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