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Massive Wave Of Iranian Missiles Pummeled Israel Overnight, As Trump Hopes Of 'Quick Victory' Fading

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
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The United States and Israel continue their history-shaping shock and awe style military campaign against Iran, with Israeli forces also now intensifying strikes in Lebanon. Since Saturday, at least 1,230 people have been killed in what's clearly morphed into a regime change operation on Tehran, according to official numbers, which are expected to climb by the day. The war is expanding to nearby countries like Azerbaijan, and possibly even Turkey - in addition to the Gulf states.

Crucially, in Washington the US Senate blocked an effort to curb President Trump's Operation Epic Fury, voting 53–47 against a procedural motion aimed at limiting the operation. Meanwhile Iran is going increasingly 'gloves off' in its response, with Tehran officials saying the war is expanding beyond just direct airstrikes. All the while, President Trump is still seeking 'quick victory' - the NY Times says Thursday. It writes, "his calculation has been that he can launch military operations with the loss of few American lives and minimal disruption to the economy. The opening days of the war in Iran are challenging that assumption." The report continues:

Already, six Americans have been killed. Gulf allies are under attack. The stock market wobbled. Gas prices are rising. The U.S. military is spending, by some estimates, hundreds of millions of dollars per day. In Iran, an airstrike on a girls’ elementary school killed 175 people, according to local health officials and Iranian state media, and the Trump administration says it is investigating who was responsible.

Smoke above Tehran, via EPA

Some of the most important latest developments at the Pentagon as well as CENTCOM headquarters come from fresh reporting in Politico:

Trump administration is scrambling to manage the fallout of the Iran war: The Pentagon is requesting additional intelligence officers for at least 100 days, suggesting the war could last far longer than the initially suggested four-week timeline. Officials say planning was limited. There's talk of "through September."

A State Department source said "too few people were read in on the war plans," which slowed evacuation preparations and travel alerts for Americans in the region.

Critics say the response looked improvised, with one former U.S. diplomat calling it "a completely ad hoc operation… like they woke up on Saturday and decided to start a war."

Again, if the Pentagon is requesting additional intelligence officers for at least 100 days, this strongly suggests the war could last far longer than the initially suggested four-week timeline. Hegseth has already suggested up to eight weeks, and the scope and timeline keeps sliding further.

In Iran, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned of "terrorist movements" along Iran's border with Iraq and called for stronger security measures amid reports that the United States is in talks with Kurdish forces about arming them to foment an uprising against Tehran.

Israel hit hard overnight:

Some Kurdish groups are already 'preemptively' getting hit, with Iran's Intelligence Ministry announcing its forces launched operations against Kurdish groups based in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq. The ministry said it struck positions belonging to "separatist groups" attempting to cross Iran's western border and reported that they suffered heavy losses.

The statement, carried by state media, said Iranian forces are cooperating with "noble Kurds" to thwart what it described as an "Israeli-American" plan to attack Iranian soil. This after many Western pundits have questioned the purpose of government officials airing or 'leaking' supposedly covert plans for the CIA and Mossad to arm Iranian Kurdish separatists. Still, the NY Times is freshly reporting Thursday:

Pro-American, Iranian Kurdish forces based in Iraq are preparing armed units that could enter Iran, creating a potential new front in an already expanding conflict.

Meanwhile, Israel expanded its air campaign inside Iran. In a new wave of strikes around Tehran, the Israel Defense Forces said it hit the headquarters of Iran’s special forces, bases of the Basij paramilitary organization, and other government-linked sites - amid official claims the US and Israel are trying to 'liberate' and get the Iranian people to 'rise up'. About 90 Israeli Air Force fighter jets participated in the operation, striking roughly 40 targets with about 200 bombs, according to the military.

Iranian authorities say civilian infrastructure has also been hit and have charged that more schools are getting obliterated. Missiles fired by the US and Israel struck two schools in the town of Parand, southwest of Tehran, Iran's semiofficial Fars news agency is alleging. Images which were widely circulated showed debris and destruction inside what appeared to be a classroom, while several nearby residential buildings also sustained damage.

Tehran has decried European apathy as its cities get pummeled, with Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei warning that European Union countries will "pay the price, sooner or later" if they remain silent over the US-Israeli attacks. Earlier in the week a few drones were sent against EU-member Cyprus, targeting a British airbase there.

Iran has upped its retaliatory strikes against Israel in another huge assault, launching its 19th wave of missile and drone attacks targeting Israel and US assets across the Middle East. The videos coming out of Tel Aviv overnight were surreal, showing dozens of ballistic missiles soaring above - often evading Israel's air defenses - before hitting targets and erupting in huge fireballs. Damage on the ground also confirms that many missiles continue to get through, with Israel's military appearing to conceal the extent of destruction - and possibly even casualties. Reuters reports Thursday:

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have tightened their grip on wartime decision making despite the loss of top commanders, senior sources say, driving a hardline strategy that is propelling Tehran's drone and missile campaign across the region.

The IRGC said it fired ballistic missiles carrying one-ton explosive warheads at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport. One projectile landed in Bareket, east of Tel Aviv. Millions of residents across central Israel were sent into shelters overnight as missile intercepts triggered explosions that rattled buildings across the area. However, medics reported no injuries following the latest barrage. Official military assessments say that only a small number of missiles were launched and no impacts were recorded in residential neighborhoods. 

While Iran military commander Amir Heydari told state TV on Thursday the vital Strait of Hormuz isn’t closed, traders and analysts still expect it will take weeks before oil flows can resume meaningfully.

Reuters and other have asked: how deep is Iran's missile and drone arsenal (as similar questions are being asked of Pentagon stocks): 

Iranian drone attacks could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz for months, but how long the Islamic Republic could sustain its missile barrage is less clear, according to intelligence sources and military analysts.

The Iranians are claiming to have only tapped their older stockpiles and that they've barely started using the shinier, high-tech and most devastating missiles. As for the ongoing Iranian attacks on US Gulf allies, Iran's military said Thursday it carried out a drone attack on a US military site in Kuwait. Other countries have reported ongoing drone or missile activity, as well as projectiles still targeting oil and logistical sites.

But most importantly, the conflict has come to Azerbaijan for the first time. Iranian drone strikes injured two people and damaged the terminal building of an airport near the Iran-Azerbaijan border - which marks the first such attack on Azerbaijani territory since the war began. The drones reportedly struck the exclave of Nakhchivan, which lies between Armenia and Iran, with another drone reportedly falling near a school in Shakarabad. "We strongly condemn these drone attacks launched from the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran," Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry said.

At sea, Iran's foreign minister condemned a US torpedo strike that sank the Iranian warship IRIS Dena off the coast of Sri Lanka on Wednesday, calling it an "atrocity" and warning that Washington will come to regret the attack. More than 80 people were killed and several remain missing after the vessel sank. The event is under international scrutiny as some Western officials and pundits have stated that according to the Geneva Convention, the US Navy was obligated to search for and rescue sinking Iranian seamen in so far as possible - but that doesn't appear to have happened.

The fighting continues to global energy markets, particularly given cargo vessels are avoiding the Strait of Hormuz after the IRGC announced the closure of the vital shipping route, throttling oil and gas flows - though we reported overnight on an apparently China-owned bulk carrier being able to make it through.

Iran itself remains under a severe communications blackout, with Internet connectivity across the country at roughly 1% of normal levels for more than 120 hours, according NetBlocks. Iranian authorities are reportedly messaging citizens warning they better not protest at this emergency moment when the country is under attack.

The war also continues to spread in Lebanon, where Israel and Hezbollah have been in a ground war for some 24 hours, amid reports of the IDF sending tanks. Since fighting resumed earlier this week, at least 77 people have been killed and 527 wounded, according to Lebanon’s health ministry.

The widening war has further stranded tens of thousands of travelers across the region. Roughly 23,000 foreign nationals remain stuck in Middle Eastern countries as commercial flights are disrupted. Several governments - including the United Kingdom, India, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Australia, and the Czech Republic - are organizing additional flights and safe border crossings to evacuate their citizens. The Trump administration came under fire initially, but has since confirmed it is organizing evacuation flights and other methods for stranded American citizens in the region.

At the same time Western officials say the military campaign is still escalating, with senior US officials warning that American strikes will begin targeting deeper locations inside Iran and emphasized that the operation remains in its early stages. This means ongoing heavy long-range bomber raids by the US.

France has also allowed US non-combat aircraft to use an airbase on French territory, with what a French Armed Forces spokesperson described as the "complete guarantee" that the planes "do not participate in any way in US operations in Iran" and are used only to defend regional partners. Italy announced it will send air-defense support to Gulf countries struck by Iranian retaliatory attacks, according to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

This question of whether US allies will jump in remains an open one. Prior precedents of American Middle East adventurism suggests it's only a matter of time, and we are seeing the proverbial camel's nose under the tent. Another excample: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he "can never categorically rule out participation" in the US-Israeli war with Iran after previously saying Canada would not take part.

Meanwhile, European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged diplomacy to prevent further escalation. "There has to be room for diplomacy here to really get out of this cycle of escalation, she said, adding that "it’s clear wars really end in diplomacy." Kallas said Gulf governments are increasingly “worried about civil war inside Iran” and the consequences that could ripple across the wider region. "Nobody can tell how it will really go, but the risks are clearly there," she said. On this front Tehran and Washington do not appear to be engaged - not even indirectly:

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear program on the condition that the US presents a rewarding alternative offer, Sky News Arabia reported; adds no message was sent to the US to end the conflict. Focused on self defense efforts.

At the White House the war justifications have seemed to change daily. Even a key objective of full regime change appears to have been dropped from the official US list of objectives - perhaps on the realization that it would require major boots on the ground.

Still, looming large over this is the potential for a WW3-style whole regional and global confrontation to erupt, in the unlikely scenario that Russia or China gets directly involved. After all, the conflict has already brushed against NATO territory. Turkish air defenses intercepted what Ankara said was a missile launched from Iran on Wednesday; however, Iranian military leaders denied firing any missile toward Turkey. The interception marked the first - and highly dangerous - time NATO forces have shot down an Iranian missile heading toward a member state during the conflict.

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