Off-Ramp In Progress? Israeli Media Signals 'Completion Phase' Of Iran War
It's no secret that Washington is looking for an off-ramp amid what has been a steady pattern of escalation with Iran over the past month since Operation Epic Fury began. The White House's anticipated timeline and even list of objectives has seriously shifted since the war's start, as has the scope, given Tehran's 'unexpected' big retaliatory strikes on the Gulf and Israel - including on energy and infrastructure targets.
It seems Trump was thinking Iran could be parallel to the Venezuela situation - where a 'decapitation' operation swiftly removed Maduro and the US basically acknowledged a pliant puppet in his place (Delcy Rodríguez). That's why White House officials at the very start were talking about an operation that would lust just 'days' or maybe a couple weeks. Now, one month in, and we have fresh headlines like this: "Iran war enters its fourth week with no clear end in sight."
The US administration is meanwhile trying to refocus its definable objectives, however overall vision and strategy for a 'mission accomplished' end-goal has been anything but clear. For example, the start of the war saw the White House officially list as an objective the end of Iran's nuclear program and removal of enriched uranium - but that is no longer listed.
Instead, the State Dept. - citing Marco Rubio - has issued the following military objectives in Iran:
1. The destruction of Iran's air force
2. The destruction of their navy
3. The severe diminishing of their missile launching capability
4. The destruction of their factories
These are much more 'achievable aims' allowing the Trump administration to save face by declaring they've all been met, whenever it wants to proclaim a mission complete situation, and pull Pentagon assets from the theatre.
But the fact that Iran still has de facto hold over the Strait of Hormuz remains a big problem, as does its ongoing nuclear capabilities, despite that nuclear sites have been degraded or possibly destroyed.
One big and somewhat surprising sign that the US-Israeli coalition could be about to wind down the war is that Times of Israel on Monday ran the following headline:
"A month into the war with Iran, the Israeli military has almost completed bombing all of the targets it defined for itself at the start of the conflict, and has now been ordered by Israel’s political leadership to shift to hitting 'economic' targets of the Iranian regime," the publication wrote.
It goes on: "The Israeli Air Force has conducted hundreds of waves of strikes in Iran, dropping over 13,000 bombs on Iranian regime and military sites, including air defense systems, ballistic missile launchers, weapon production sites, some nuclear facilities, and various headquarters."
The same report also details how dozens of top civilian and military leaders have been killed in the campaign, and most importantly longtime Ayatollah Ali Khamnieni. However, the report also mentions one Israeli objecting of "setting the conditions" for some kind of popular uprising which could topple the government, and that has not happened. Still, the language in the report strongly suggests an offramp could be in the works, perhaps under pressure by the United States:
On Saturday, IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said that “within a few days” the military would complete targeting all of the “critical” assets of Iran’s military production industries, sites used to develop weapons that threaten Israel. The military has also said it has taken out most of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers and air defense systems.
And here's a key line from Times of Israel:
Israel’s defense establishment is now in what it described as the “completion phase” of the goals it set out at the start of the war, meaning it believes it has largely achieved its objectives of degrading Iran’s military capabilities and “creating the conditions” for the Iranian regime to fall, The Times of Israel has learned.
Yet there are still other signs which suggest the war could go on for quite a bit longer, and even turn into a deeper quagmire, given the White House has yet to rule out ground forces.
I told @NewYorker: “What is the point of the entire U.S. military role in the Middle East? If it has any point, it should be to prevent something like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Yet U.S. military action has only brought about the very problem it’s supposed to prevent.”
— Stephen Wertheim (@stephenwertheim) March 30, 2026
Is Trump heading toward trying to 'force' a 'mission accomplished' moment? It would be interesting if this happened before the Strait of Hormuz was actually opened up. Such an outcome would probably be used by Iranian officials to instead declare 'victory' for the Islamic Republic.