Only Iran "Friendly" Ships Allowed Transit Through Strait, As Tankers Pile Up Near Hormuz, Waiting To Cross

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely limited, with transits over the past 24 hours consisting almost exclusively of ships "friendly" to Iran, including Chinese and Russian vessels. Meanwhile, those expecting the ceasefire to unblock Hormuz have actually seen the opposite: traffic through the strait, which ticked up at the weekend, has since slowed further. 

Several fully-laden supertankers have moved toward the waterway in the past two days, but haven’t made the crossing out of the Persian Gulf, despite a US-Iran ceasefire taking effect this week.

Unless anything changes, this weekend's ceasefire negotiations will be very short: the US has said the truce is conditional on Iran unblocking Hormuz. Yet since Thursday morning, just nine ships out of the roughly 800 vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf, have been observed passing through the strait, with five heading out of the gulf and four going in the opposite direction.

Among the most important was the Suezmax oil tanker Tour 2, hauling about 1 million barrels of Iranian crude out of the waterway. The Russian flagged supertanker Arhimeda moved in the opposite direction toward Iran’s export terminal at Kharg Island.

In a sign of some modest optimism, several oil tankers inside the Persian Gulf are anchoring near the approach to the strait, likely in order to be among the first to get underway as soon as the waterway opens up. Yet even as the ceasefire has pushed shipowners to begin considering options, most say conditions are still too unclear to attempt an exit.

Two Japanese oil tankers - itching with anticipation to get the hell out - left the waters off Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura on Thursday to move closer to the strait. The Mayasan and Yakumosan, both very-large carriers each hauling around 2 million barrels of crude, began sailing east late Thursday from waters off Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia, where they have been since mid-March. The Sea Condor, a Greek-flagged products tanker that loaded in Kuwait, was also moving east in the direction of Hormuz.

Mayasan sailed into the gulf a few days before war broke out on Feb. 28, ship-tracking data show. It picked up crude from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia in late February. It is indicating Tomakomai, a port in northern Japan, as its destination. Yakumosan entered the gulf in late February, and picked up a cargo of Qatari crude from a floating storage vessel in early March. It then soon took another load from Saudi Arabia’s Juaymah, before idling for a few weeks off Ras Tanura. It is signaling a mustering point off Das Island in the United Arab Emirates as its destination.

The Japanese ships sailing east on Friday have links to Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd., a major Japanese shipowner and key energy player. While the company extracted at least one vessel from the gulf before this week’s truce, President Jotaro Tamura said on Thursday the group would now need to scrutinize details and the implementation of the ceasefire before allowing its tankers to test the Strait of Hormuz. 

Mitsui owns Mayasan, while Yakumosan’s owner Phoenix Ocean Corp. shares MOL’s address. MOL said it could not comment on “the navigation status or operational measures of individual vessels,” adding its priority was the safety of seafarers, cargo, and vessels. 

The Japanese tankers follow a similar move by three fully-laden Chinese ships. On Thursday, the three Chinese VLCCs clustered at a spot approaching Iran’s Qeshm, the island that now serves as a gateway for Hormuz transits. Two of the ships are linked to China’s Cosco Shipping Corp., a giant and prudent state-owned player.

The Cospearl Lake, a very-large crude carrier linked to China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping Corp., and He Rong Hai, owned by a smaller entity, appeared to be traveling east early on Thursday morning at near-top speeds, according to ship-tracking data, before coming to a virtual halt. Another Cosco-linked VLCC, the Yuan Hua Hu, began its eastward journey a few hours later. All three are signaling Chinese ownership on their tracking systems, a move typically done for safety during Iran-approved transits (and in this case they aren't lying).

The Chinese ships are already notable for their cargoes. Two are carrying Iraqi crude, and the other Saudi. While Iran has referred to “brotherly” Iraq, most other transits have been granted to friendly nations. Iraq has told traders and refiners that vessels carrying the country’s oil are now able to transit the Strait of Hormuz thanks to an Iranian exemption.

Cospearl Lake’s and Yuan Hua Hu’s passages would also mark the first such attempt by a Cosco oil tanker in the six-week war. The company, like other large shipping firms, tends to be conservative, and its crude carriers have been trapped since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began, prompting Iran to all but close Hormuz in retaliation

Sea Condor, the Greek-flagged ship, also moved into the gulf at around the same time and picked up Kuwaiti fuels in early March. Its owner is Turandot Marine Co. which shares the same contact details as its manager, Pantheon Tankers Management, in Athens. 

The tankers are part of a growing armada amassing at the entrance to the strait, off the United Arab Emirates. A Saudi Arabian-flagged VLCC, the Jaham, has moved east toward a nearby holding area off Dubai. They join other ships including two Indian-flagged, fully-laden supertankers that have been in the area since late March - the Desh Vibhor, which is off Ras Al Khaimah, and the Desh Vaibhav, which is near Dubai.

Shipowners are not only concerned about the safety of crew and cargo, but also about the need to manage Iranian demands to secure safe passage, including payments which could expose companies to sanctions risks. Trump, who announced a complete opening of Hormuz along with the ceasefire earlier this week, said on Thursday he was optimistic, only to then chastise Iran for doing a “very poor” job of allowing oil through.

Meanwhile, all transits observed in the past day passed through a narrow northern corridor of the Strait between the Iranian islands of Larak and Qeshm, which is the only passage permitted by Iran's military. 

Observed Transits

According to Bloomberg, since Thursday morning, two Iran-linked oil tankers, two bulkers and a single container ship have been observed leaving the Persian Gulf. The Greek oil tanker Serengeti, which appeared on automated tracking systems off Sri Lanka on Thursday, is estimated to have made the outbound crossing on April 1.

From the other side, two tankers sanctioned by the US for their involvement in the Iranian oil trade - one of which was the Arhimeda - were observed entering the Gulf on Thursday. A small bulk carrier also made the inbound transit. On Friday morning, the only vessel seen heading into the Persian Gulf was a Chinese-linked bulk carrier.