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Trump Hails Iran's Full Hormuz Reopening As U.S. Reportedly Weighs $20 Billion Cash-For-Nukes Deal

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Authored...

Summary

  • Trump Praises Iran for Fully Reopening Hormuz Chokepoint; Crude Tanks, Yields Dump, Equity Futs Up

  • Iran's Aragchi says "Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open"

  • US mulls cash-for-uranium deal as 'three-page' MOU peace plan takes shape. Trump claims US will get the 'nuclear dust'. - and all without help of 'Paper Tiger' NATO

  • Peace talks reportedly on Sunday in Islamabad

Odds of a permanent peace deal by the end of the ceasefire are soaring above 50% by the end of the month...

NATO 'Paper Tiger' can 'Stay Away': Trump

The President continues unleashing a series of Iran-related statements on Truth Social, in his latest once again dumping on NATO, claiming that the alliance has belatedly offered the US help in its Hormuz Strait mission, but Trump in all caps said he told them to 'stay away' unless 'they just want to load up their ships with oil.' 

He then repeated a familiar theme of his, blasting NATO as a 'Paper Tiger' for its allege weakness and lack of help with US Iran and Hormuz operations. However, from NATO and Europe's perspective, the strategic vision and scope of the mission has been constantly evolving, leaving allies confused to say the least - so this doesn't provide them with enough incentive or confidence to assist in intervening.

And he quickly followed with this highly dubious claim:

And more, now we're something like 10 or 11 Truth Social statements in and it's still just morning:

Trump Again Touts US Will Seize 'Nuclear Dust'

President Trump keeps touting that the US will seize Iran's "nuclear dust" - which he says is what has resulted from the massive bombing campaign of Iranian nuclear sites as part of Operation Epic Fury. 

But the US will get this even as "No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form" - in the latest Friday Truth Social post. However, none of this has been acknowledged by Iran in terms some kind of grand bargain with the US. The below appears merely another fresh threat from Trump, in order to perhaps create leverage and fear amid potential renewed talks.

Trump Responds 

Minutes after Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas posted on X that the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open", President Trump responded on Truth Social:

"IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU!"

Of course, we joke, but really...

About 20 minutes after Trump's first Truth Social post, the president fired off another, this time declaring that the "naval blockade will remain in full force." 

Trump said: 

The Strait of Hormuz is completely open and ready for business, with full passage restored.

However, the naval blockade will remain in full force and effect as it pertains to Iran only until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete.

This process should move very quickly, as most of the points have already been negotiated. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Market impact so far:

  • WTI dropped 9% to $86/bbl after Iran announced the Hormuz chokepoint opening during the ceasefire

  • Brent retreated to $91 a barrel

  • The dollar plunged while bonds surged, with 10-year yields falling to 4.23%

  • European benchmark NatGas prices also fell sharply following the announcement

  • Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index erased all gains since the Iran war began

  • US main equity futures are green

UBS analyst Nana Antiedu comments on "OIS markets reprice" as Hormuz reopens:

BoE and ECB pricing reacted sharply to US President Trump saying that the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open.

The GBP OIS market has now removed 11bp of hikes removed for the year, now pricing 27.5bp cumulatively.

Similarly, the 10bp of hikes have been removed for the ECB this year, now pricing 44.4bp cumulatively. For the FOMC, OIS markets reprice cumulative cuts to 15bp, down 5bp.

This chart shows market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate changes in 2026.

Iran Opens Hormuz

In a rather shocking turn of events, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Aragchi posted on X that the Strait of Hormuz is open:

"In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran."

Oil crashed even lower on the report...

Are we getting close to 'Mission Accomplished'?

US Mulls $20BN Cash-For-Uranium Deal

According to two U.S. officials and two additional sources briefed on the talks, Axios' Barak Ravid reports that the US and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war.

The three-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) the two sides are negotiating over also includes a "voluntary" moratorium on nuclear enrichment by Iran.

The U.S. demanded in the last round of talks that Iran agree to a 20-year moratorium. Iran countered with five years. The mediators are still trying to close the gap.

As part of the MOU, Iran would be allowed to have nuclear research reactors for the production of medical isotopes, but would pledge that all of its nuclear facilities would be above ground.

The existing underground facilities would remain out of commission.

Perhaps the most notable element under discussion being that the U.S. would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium.

Axios adds that a top priority for the Trump admin is ensuring Iran can't access the stockpile of nearly 2,000kg of enriched uranium buried in its underground nuclear facilities, in particular the 450kg enriched to 60% purity.

The Iranians, meanwhile, need money.

The parties are negotiating over what will happen to the stockpile and how much of Iran's assets will be unfrozen. They are also discussing the terms on which Iran could use that money.

WTI Crude front-month oil futures prices are tumbling on the report, down over 11% - back near post-ceasefire lows...

President Trump said Thursday that U.S. and Iranian negotiators would likely meet this weekend for a second round of talks to try to seal the deal.

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