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Trump Announces "Project Freedom" To Help Ships Leave Hormuz Starting Monday

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by Tyler Durden
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Update: (6:30pm ET):  It appears that Trump's Operation Freedom is just the latest jawboning nothingburger. As the WSJ explains, Project Freedom "is a process through which countries, insurance companies and shipping organizations can coordinate moving traffic through the Strait, according to a senior U.S. official. It doesn’t currently involve U.S. Navy warships escorting vessels through the strait, the official said." In other words, as we mused earlier, this is not the announcement of an escort mission just now, and is just filler for another post from Trump.

As for Iran's reply, one could have seen this coming:

"Any American interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf would not be managed by Trump's delusional posts"

Finally, here is a statement from US Central Command which says... nothing:

U.S. Military Supports Launch of Project Freedom in Strait of Hormuz

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin supporting Project Freedom, May 4, to restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The mission, directed by the President, will support merchant vessels seeking to freely transit through the essential international trade corridor. A quarter of the world’s oil trade at sea and significant volumes of fuel and fertilizer products are transported through the strait.

“Our support for this defensive mission is essential to regional security and the global economy as we also maintain the naval blockade,” said Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander.

Last week, the U.S. Department of State announced a new initiative, in partnership with the Department of War, to enhance coordination and information sharing among international partners in support of maritime security in the strait. The Maritime Freedom Construct aims to combine diplomatic action with military coordination, which will be critical during Project Freedom.

U.S. military support to Project Freedom will include guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members.

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Update: (5:00pm ET): In response to the earlier notice from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which said that "Trump must choose between an impossible military operation or a bad deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran," the US president has decided to take a third path: in a post on Truth Social Trump said the US will begin guiding some ships that aren’t involved in the Iran conflict out through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday.

“The Ship movement is merely meant to free up people, companies, and Countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong — They are victims of circumstance,” Trump, or rather his AI chatbot, wrote Sunday, although it was unclear just how the US will avoid the dozens of mines that line the Strait or evade the missiles that Iran has threatened it would shoot at US ships if they came too close to the Strait. 

Trump called this extraction "Project Freedom", and said it will begin Monday morning, Middle East time. The US president also said that he is "fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all."

 

"This is a Humanitarian gesture on behalf of the United States, Middle Eastern Countries but, in particular, the Country of Iran. Many of these Ships are running low on food, and everything else necessary for largescale crews to stay on board in a healthy and sanitary manner. I think it would go a long way in showing Goodwill on behalf of all of those who have been fighting so strenuously over the last number of months. If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

And while Trump claims the move is "humanitarian," it is a clear U.S. challenge to Tehran's effort to control the strait, and as Axios notes, an Iranian military response could spark a confrontation or even an escalation back to war.

Furthermore, it was not immediately clear whether this move was coordinated with Iran in any way, although without any signaling from official and unofficial channels from Iran, it is most likely a unilateral approach by the White House. 

Earlier, Trump suggested the Islamic Republic’s latest peace proposal might not be enough to satisfy him as efforts to put an end to the conflict have yet to show progress.

To that end, Trump wrote his representatives "are having very positive discussions" with Iran and stressed these discussions "could lead to something very positive for all." Axios adds that the US sent on Sunday another amended draft for an agreement to end the war in response to Iranian officials' latest proposal, so at least there is some token movement on behind the scenes negotiations. 

Aside from a very strong sense of deja vu about all this (Trump said the US would help escort ships more than a month ago and nothing happened). as Jim Bianco notes there are a four of possible outcomes from "Project Freedom", two good, two bad:

  1. US escorts ships out, Iran does nothing, war is over
  2. US escorts ships out, Iran fires on ships that the US can repel, war is over
  3. US escorts ships out, Iran fires on ships and hits them, or they hit a mine. The image of burning ships is a disaster for the Navy and the US, especially if it's a US warship.
  4. The US keeps threatening to do this, but the Navy never actually does it (akin to them not firing on the 40 or so fast boats in the Strait today when Trump said they would a several days ago). The US can be criticized for talking a big game with little action.

Outcomes 1 and 2 would send stocks higher; 3 and 4 would lead to the opposite, although in the current reality where nothing matters, there is a possibility that all 4 outcomes sends stocks to even recorder highs. 

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Earlier

Iran is telling Washington that the ball is in its court as President Trump has affirmed over the weekend that he is reviewing the latest peace deal submitted via Pakistani mediators. Tehran is further saying the US is going from worse to worse as it must now choose between an "impossible" military operation or a "bad" deal.

The intelligence unit of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has newly stated that "Trump must choose between an impossible military operation or a bad deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran," according to Al Jazeera referencing the official statement. The provocative words framing the dilemma came soon on the heels of the following Saturday Truth Social post from Trump:

As for the IRGC statement about an "impossible" miliary operation, it further indicated that Tehran sent the US military a deadline to end its blockade of Iranian ports. It highlighted that Europe, China and Russia are are increasingly taking a more critical toward Washington's war.

"The room for US decision-making has narrowed," the IRGC intelligence unit sad additionally, emphasizing "there is only one way to read this."

At the moment, the two-week ceasefire which was announced on April 8 through Pakistani mediation has been unilaterally extended by Trump, to now be indefinite. On Friday as the conflict reached 60-days, President Trump submitted a formal letter to Congress stressing Operation Epic Fury had already been 'terminated' due to the ceasefire. 

The White House is arguing that this loophole - or the fact that there's currently no exchanges of fire between the US and Iranian sides - means that required Congressional review and authorization of use of American troops is essentially voided. In the meantime gas prices at the pump for Americans are steadily rising. The below is the full IRGC statement to the US side:

The current Iran-submitted plan now being reviewed at the White House reportedly contains 14 points. A Russian correspondent has said that "Iran is seeking a decisive and permanent end to the conflict with the US, rather than a previously proposed two-month ceasefire" and that it seems a one-month window to end all hostilities.

"The plan includes a demand to resolve all issues and end the war within 30 days," said RT correspondent Saman Kojouri, adding that “"he space for compromise between Tehran and Washington is narrowing." Just by the close of last week Trump said he was 'not satisfied' with what he had seen so far.

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