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US, Iran Agree To Meet For Talks In Pakistan Friday As Both Declare 'Victory'; Saudi East-West Pipeline Hit By Drone

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Authored...

Summary: 

  • The Hegseth/Caine presser as expected declared 'victory' in Iran while Gen. Caine emphasized the ceasefire is a "pause" but US forces remain "ready to resume combat." Hegseth says "military will be hanging around in Iran, won't go anywhere, and will make sure Iran complies. Pentagon is trying to put a bow on Operation Epic Fury.

  • US, Iran agree to meet for first direct talks in Islamabad Friday, Pakistan PM Sharif announces.

  • Iran meanwhile demands stiff fees for ships passing through Hormuz during the ceasefire, and says it holds the final authority on which vessels get to pass. Tehran leaders have asserted 'victory' for Iran, amid positive international reaction to the ceasefire.

  • The first two ships since the ceasefire was announced have crossed the Strait of Hormuz after Iran said it will demand that shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency for oil tankers passing through the Strait, as it seeks to retain control over passage

  • Saudi Arabia's vital East-West oil pipeline carrying crude from the Gulf to the Red Sea for export has been attacked at a pumping station, oil rises on the news. There's been sporadic attacks on other Gulf states too.

*  *  *

US, Iranian Delegates Agree to Meet in Islamabad Friday

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has announced that American and Iranian delegates have accepted an invitation to meet in Islamabad on Friday.

He said of a talk with the Iranian president, "I expressed my deep appreciation for the wisdom and foresight of Iran's leadership in accepting Pakistan's proposal to host peace talks in Islamabad later this week, aimed at our joint efforts to restore calm to the region. President Pezeshkian also affirmed Iran's participation in the upcoming negotiations, expressed gratitude for Pakistan's efforts, and extended his best wishes to the people of Pakistan."

IRGC Parliament Official: 'Maritime Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz Must be Halted'

Reuters has picked up on the words of IRGC officer and member of Iranian parliament's "Expediency Discernment Council" Mohsen Rezaee: "In response to the brutal aggression against Lebanon, maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz must be halted immediately and a strong, decisive strike must be delivered against the entity."

This perhaps represents a hardline faction approach, given clearly Tehran has held significant leverage and maintains de facto control of the Hormuz Strait. However, it does not yet appear the official government position, given also the first two vessels have passed through the waterway since the ceasefire was announced.

As we reported earlier Wednesday, The Liberia-flagged Daytona Beach, destined for the United Arab Emirates, crossed just before 8am UK time, while the Greek-owned NJ Earth followed about two hours later, with its destination undisclosed, the tracking platform Kpler showed.

Saudi Aramco Export Pipeline To Red Sea Struck

A huge, and not very 'ceasefirey' development in Saudi Arabia, per the FT (just as Hegseth was speaking): "A pumping station was hit at 1 p.m. local time, the people told FT. The attack was carried out by a drone and damage was being assessed, one of the people told FT Saudi Aramco, which owns and operates the pipeline." FT continues, "The people said a pumping station, one of several along the 1,200km pipeline that has become an economic lifeline for the kingdom since the near closure of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, was hit at about 1pm local time on Wednesday."

One Gulf based representative and analyst complains, "For a ceasefire, the fire does not seem to be ceasing. The UAE and Kuwait are under attack, and Iran says it is under attack too. Beyond the ceasefire itself, the bigger question is that the plan still looks unclear when it comes to what follows..."

The development pushed oil slightly up...

Pentagon Tries to put a Bow on Operation Epic Fury: 'Overwhelming Victory'

Hegseth in his Pentagon press briefing called the ceasefire an "overwhelming victory" for the United States and stated the military "stands ready" to ensure Iran complies with the agreement. He said US forces will still be "hanging around" the region, and further that Iran's nuclear "dust" is being monitored, buried under the rubble, and that eventually the US will either take the enriched uranium or else it will be handed over. "Iran begged for ceasefire," Hegseth declared.

"We stand ready in the background to ensure Iran upholds every reasonable term," Hegseth said. Also Joint Chiefs chairman Gen. Caine stated that all US objectives in Iran have been achieved.

He hailed that US has destroyed Iran's defense-industrial base, including over 80% of missile facilities gone, and its navy lies at the "bottom of the Arabian Sea". It's clear that after six weeks the Pentagon is trying to put a bow on Operation Epic Fury.

During the Q&A, there was a question - largely dodged by Hegseth - centered on wither the US has achieved "strategic" victory vs. merely tactical victory. That ultimately is the question.

Also, is there really ceasefire on the ground? But this is merely day one:

But Iran also sees this as Victory

The United States and Iran have announced a two-week suspension of all attacks, and Tehran reportedly agreed to allow safe transit of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. It all started with President Trump seizing on the last-minute olive branch plan offered by Pakistan's prime minister, which urged a two week extension of the US deadline before massive obliteration bombings began, and in return Iran would agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has essentially declared victory and stated that upcoming talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Friday do not guarantee an end to the war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has given supportive lip service to the US decision but stated that Lebanon is excluded from the two-week ceasefire.

Iran warns of decisive response to any ‘miscalculations’ by US. The IRGC said in a statement: "While we remain open to talks, we trust no promises from our adversaries. Our forces are poised, prepared by decades of experience in confrontations with American and Zionist forces, ready to respond decisively to any miscalculations by the enemy."

Latest from Trump on Truth Social:

Oil prices dropped rapidly after Trump announced the pause, with Brent crude trading just below $95 per barrel. Qatar’s Cabinet welcomed the US-Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, stating it emphasizes "the necessity of immediately halting all hostile actions and practices that undermine regional stability, respect for state sovereignty, and the assurance of security for maritime passages, freedom of navigation, and international trade."

Iran meanwhile is demanding stiff fees for ships passing through Hormuz during the ceasefire, and says it holds the final authority on which vessels get to pass. So now, in essense… stability in global energy flows depends on accommodating Iran AND it will likely get sanctions relief, per the deal on the table.

Iranian state media has featured celebratory scenes in the streets:

Ceasefire Hailed Internationally

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on X that he held a “warm, substantive” conversation with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian. “I conveyed my deep appreciation for the wisdom and sagacity of the Iranian leadership in accepting Pakistan’s offer to host peace talks in Islamabad later this week to work jointly for the return of peace to the region,” he said.

“President Pezeshkian reaffirmed Iran’s participation in the upcoming negotiations and expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s efforts, while conveying his best wishes for the people of Pakistan,” he added.

Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun welcomed the ceasefire, while Israel has instead asserted that Lebanon remains outside the agreement and continued strikes on the country.

To quote armchair war hawk Michael Weiss, A month ago Trump demanded Iran’s "unconditional surrender." Now the U.S. claims these are a feasible starting point for negotiations...

Pope Leo XIV praised the agreement as a “sign of real hope,” stating, “I welcome with satisfaction, and as a sign of real hope, the announcement of an immediate two-week truce. Only by returning to negotiations can we reach the end of the war,” during his weekly audience at the Vatican.

The International Atomic Energy Agency welcomed the ceasefire and signaled readiness to support a diplomatic resolution. Director General Rafael Grossi stated, “IAEA DG Grossi welcomes … a return to diplomacy aimed at negotiating a settlement on key issues including Iran’s nuclear program.” It added: “The IAEA stands ready to support these efforts through its indispensable safeguards and verification role.”

Attacks Continue? Hormuz Status

However, attacks on Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait continued on Wednesday, hours after the ceasefire announcement. Also, there's as yet been no significant change in navigation traffic in the Strait of Hormuz today, per Bloomberg satellite data.

A global shipping industry group representing 130 companies and around 1,500 vessels stated that conditions in the Gulf remain unstable. CEO Knut Arild Hareide said, “We note the signals of a ceasefire, but the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved and unpredictable.”

“It is not yet clear under what conditions safe transit can be carried out. Shipowners are assessing the situation and will not resume transits until there is real security for safe passage,” Hareide added.

Will it hold?

Earlier, Denmark’s Maersk shipping company stated that the ceasefire announcement does not provide sufficient certainty to resume normal operations in the region.

More Geopolitical Headlines

via Newsquawk...

  • US President Donald Trump announced a two-week suspension of bombing in Iran, conditional on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, describing it as a double-sided ceasefire and stating US military objectives have been met while a long-term peace agreement is close to completion.
  • Trump said the US received a 10-point proposal from Iran that serves as a workable basis for negotiations, with most major points of contention already agreed and the two-week period intended to finalize the deal.
  • Trump posted: "A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process...this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!"
  • Trump told AFP the Iran deal is complete and a comprehensive US victory, stating Iran’s uranium “will be perfectly taken care of” and that China played a role in bringing Iran to negotiations.
  • Iranian outlet SNN reported possible ceasefire violations, citing explosions on Siri and Lavan islands, while Iran’s National Security Council warned that if attacks continue in southern Lebanon, it will strike Tel Aviv within hours.
  • Iran confirmed negotiations with the US will take place in Islamabad starting April 10, aiming to formalize battlefield gains politically within 15 days, with talks extendable by mutual agreement.
  • Iranian officials stated talks with the US do not signify the end of the war, while confirming safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks and that operations will halt if attacks on Iran stop.
  • Pakistan’s leadership invited US and Iranian delegations to Islamabad, with reports indicating US envoys and Vice President JD Vance are expected to attend.
  • A US official said the ceasefire will begin this evening, though delays are expected in relaying orders to IRGC field units.
  • Iran and Oman are expected to charge transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz under the ceasefire arrangement.
  • Israeli outlet Ynet reported security sources stating the ceasefire will include Lebanon.
  • Iran’s Supreme Leader instructed negotiators to pursue a truce, according to Axios.
  • Iran’s UN ambassador stated Iran “categorically rejects any temporary ceasefire” and said any resolution must ensure a definitive end to aggression and establish lasting peace.
  • The US will demand removal of nuclear materials from Iran, according to Israeli officials cited by Al Hadath via Haaretz.
  • A White House official stated the ceasefire takes effect once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.
  • A senior White House official said Israel is included in the two-week ceasefire and has agreed to suspend bombing during negotiations.
  • Oman’s transport minister stated no transit fees can be imposed in the Strait of Hormuz under existing agreements.
  • Iraq’s Islamic Resistance announced a two-week suspension of operations.
  • Hezbollah is preparing to announce its formal position on the ceasefire and respond to claims that Lebanon is excluded.
  • A new wave of Iranian missiles was launched toward Israel.
  • An Israeli military official stated Israel continues to conduct strikes inside Iran.
  • Explosions were reported on Iran’s Sirri Island, with the source unidentified.
  • Explosions were also reported at the Lavan oil refinery in Iran, with the cause unknown.
  • Bahrain issued a missile alert hours after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement.
  • Reports indicated an explosion in Kermanshah in northwestern Iran.
  • The IDF confirmed detection of missiles launched from Iran toward Israel.
  • Iran’s Supreme Security Council stated forces remain ready to respond immediately and with full force to any escalation.
  • Maritime data showed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains light and limited.