What Are The Prospects Of Putin Mediating An End To The Iran War?
Russia is the only country in the world that’s on decent terms with Iran, the US, Israel, and the Gulf Kingdoms, thus making Putin the only person who could potentially mediate an end to the war.
Putin spoke with the leaders of the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia (de facto since he spoke with Mohammed bin Salman) on Monday, all of whose countries have been attacked by Iran on the pretext that the US military facilities on their territories are being used in the war. The Kremlin readouts that were cited above all sound the same due to them complaining about being attacked, Putin sympathizing with them without condemning Iran, and then floating suggestions that he could mediate an end to it.
Many observers have been under the false impression that Russia is Iran’s military ally, the perception of which proliferated for the reasons explained here, namely due to the alternative reality crafted over the years by top “Non-Russian Pro-Russian” influencers for whatever their reasons may have been. The objectively existing reality is that Russia carefully balances between the Iranian-led “Resistance Axis” on the one side and Israel and the Gulf Kingdoms, the UAE being Russia’s main partner, on the other.
Having contextualized Putin’s four calls, it’s now time to briefly review the goals of Iran, the US and Israel, and the Gulf Kingdoms in this conflict.
Iran only wants to survive the onslaught without regime change, demilitarization, or “Balkanization” while inflicting damage on its regional adversaries and their shared US ally as punishment for the joint US-Israeli war against it.
The US and Israel, meanwhile, want to carry out regime change, demilitarize Iran, and restore its pre-revolutionary role as their ally.
As for the Gulf Kingdoms, they don’t want Iran to attack them anymore due to the extreme fragility of their economies, but some now believe that they’re coming around to more actively supporting Iran’s demilitarization at the very least after what it just did to them.
Russia’s interests are more aligned with Iran’s this time around, though not out of political solidarity, just pragmatism; it wants the Iranian state preserved, the regional balance of power maintained to a degree, and Russian investments protected.
These interests are the polar opposite of the US and Israel’s but, apart from maintaining the regional balance of power to a degree, are arguably acceptable to the Gulf Kingdoms which want an end to hostilities as soon as possible out of fear that more Iranian attacks could destroy their fragile economies.
This explains why they all agreed to talk to Putin on Monday in the hopes that he can discover what concessions the Iranian leadership with whom he remains in close contact might be willing to make.
The Gulf Kingdoms would likely support peace given how degraded the Iranian military has already become, but the US and Israel would likely only accept at minimum an end to Iran’s nuclear program and enforceable guarantees that it won’t rebuild its armed forces, especially not their missile capabilities.
Depending on how much they degrade its military and whether certain “Balkanization” scenarios arise, they might also demand “no-fly zones” over the Azeri- and/or Kurdish-majority regions of the country.
Putin’s task is therefore to devise a reasonable set of compromises that would be acceptable for Iran. Even if these terms aren’t fully acceptable to the US and/or Israel, so long as they’re acceptable to the Gulf Kingdoms across whose airspace and from whose territory many of the US’ attacks against Iran are occurring, they might withdraw the aforesaid permission from the US out of desperation to save themselves from Iran. That could coerce the US into either ending the war or ruining ties with them.