“We don’t see a closure of the Hormuz strait but see possibility of disruption" 

...macro risk worsening, geopolitical risk 'off the highs', trade policy risk plunging...

"Markets tend not to price in geopolitical risks until there is a conflagration"

The new narrative: "lack of tariff inflation is transitory"...

“This is the meeting where the Fed will have fully incorporated tariffs into their forecasts”

Today's market was brought to you by the word "we" and "solar" and the number '-0.9%'...

“Today’s downward movement, triggered by Trump, could actually last for a few days or even a few weeks”

...as trade policy uncertainty plunges, geopolitical risks soar.

...as 'trade policy uncertainty' plunges, geopolitical risk reignites...

"We are seeing behavior fully consistent with risk-off"

“There’s a resistance at this point to really add a lot of risk”

...trade war, real war, and hedge funds hammered!

"CPI is not expected to be market-moving but that could increase the scope for an impact from a big surprise" 

"...starting to feel some similar tremors underneath the surface in terms of the recent market price action..."

"We believe the path of least resistance for equities remains upward"

On the surface, it was another boring, low-volume, range-bound session with the intraday S&P band at just 40bps

“The market is dealing with uncertainty around tariffs, but technology is back at the forefront.”

'Goldilocks' payrolls topped 'Godzilla' Trump vs 'Kong' Musk turmoil this week...

“Futures are edging higher, perhaps as Musk has started to suggest on X that he would be open to a cooling-off period" 

"...what a shitshow."