Americans' Consumer Confidence Rebounded Dramatically Off COVID Lows In October

After crashing below COVID lows in September, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index surged back to the highest level since June in October's data released today. 

The headline index rose by 7.5 points to 91.7 (1985=100) in October, up from 84.2 in September (a slight upward revision) and dramatically better than the 81.0 expected.

The Present Situation Index - based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions - increased by 8.6 points to 120.4. 

The Expectations Index - based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions - recovered by 6.9 points to 72.6, only partially reversing three consecutive monthly declines. The survey period for this month’s preliminary results was October 1-21.

“Consumer confidence advanced in October, driven primarily by improved perceptions of current and expected business conditions,” said Fergus McCormick, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, The Conference Board.

“The recovery was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October. Yet, despite the increase in October, consumer confidence remained on the long-term downward trend that’s persisted over the past few years. Consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months. This likely reflected higher price levels and persistent inflation, which eroded consumers’ purchasing power.”

That was the biggest beat since May 2025...

McCormickcontinued: “Among write-in responses in October, consumers continued to express frustration with rising costs. References to prices, the high cost of food and groceries, and oil and diesel prices rose. Comments about war and conflict eased for a second straight month but remained elevated. Mentions of jobs and employment as an area of concern also ticked up, though to a lesser extent.” 

On a six-month moving average basis, only consumers under age 35 and those with a household income of $100k or more expressed an increase in confidence. By generation, confidence amongst Gen X, Baby Boomers, and the Silent Generation continued to trail significantly behind Gen Z and Millennials, widening a sharp generational divide that has emerged over the past two years. 

In October, confidence improved across all political affiliations—but much more so for Republicans.