April Payrolls Preview: A Big Drop From March; Here's How To Trade It

The April jobs report is expected to show a sharp slowdown after Marchʼs 178k gains, with headline NFP seen at 65k, and the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% M/M, lifting the Y/Y rate to 3.8% (from 3.5%). Traders will be looking to see if the March strength was flattered by temporary factors, including returning healthcare strikers and weather-related payback, or whether the labor market remains resilient enough to keep the Fed comfortable staying on hold. Analysts say that a soft headline print could therefore be dismissed as noisy, given Marchʼs distortions; a number above consensus, however, could ease stagflation concerns, and add to the hawkish narrative, reinforcing the case for an extended pause.

Expectations: