August Payrolls Preview: The Wheels Finally Come Off

With the Fed widely seen as holding rates (absent some shock) in September, Friday's payrolls report is less relevant than some more recent vintages in terms of policy impact, however it will be closely watched to confirm the recent deteriorating trend in the US economy (especially after this week's horrendous JOLTS report) which will accelerated thanks to the recent Yellow bankruptcy (30,000 union jobs gone poof) and widespread strikes across the country, and may precipitate an earlier than expected start to the Fed's next easing campaign.

So without further ado, here is a snapshot of what the street expects tomorrow:

• Headline print of 170k, down from prior 187k and the lowest since Dec 2020.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM +0.3%, down from +0.4%,
• Average Hourly Earnings YoY +4.3%, down from +4.4%
• Unemp Rate 3.5%, unchanged vs prior 3.5%
• Labor Force participation rate 62.6%, unchanged vs prior 62.6%