BofA Sees Customer Gas Spending Jump 16%, But Discretionary Spending Holds Up

The national average for 87-octane gasoline has remained above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level for two straight weeks after the largest monthly jump in AAA data going back two decades. The fuel shock has Wall Street analysts focused on whether surging pump prices will begin crowding out discretionary spending.

Bank of America CFO Alastair Borthwick told analysts on a conference call earlier today that the fuel shock at the pump has not undermined overall consumer strength so far, though that could change if the Hormuz chokepoint is not resolved in the near term, according to Bloomberg. 

The BofA presentation Alastair cited showed that, for the first quarter, consumer spending at the pump was up 3%. For March, gas spending soared 16%. However, no meaningful spending pullbacks were visible elsewhere: Entertainment, travel, and retail spending all remained healthy, with entertainment spending rising 12% in the quarter.

BofA has joined a number of other firms, including Chime Financial, in disclosing gas-cost impacts on their customers. Chime's CFO warned earlier this month that clients spent 25% more on fuel in March compared with the prior month.

Ally Financial, Capital One Financial, and American Express are set to report this week and will likely provide more color on fuel-shock impacts on their customers.

AAA data showed that the national average for 87-octane gasoline has hovered above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level for the last two weeks.

On the economy, Goldman analyst Jessica Rindels told clients on Sunday how the U.S.-Iran conflict, now in its seventh week, is set to produce a mild stagflation shock, though not on the scale of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In our latest U.S.-Iran conflict report (read here), President Trump stated the war is "very close to over," with another round of peace talks scheduled for this week. A Wall Street report cited U.S. officials overnight as saying that more than 20 vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.