PremiumBonds Bid On Bad Data & 'Hormuz Open', Tech Credit Sinks Stocks, Goldman Reveals 'The One Rate That Matters'
Tl;dr: US Treasuries were bid on bad data (housing starts, industrial production, pending home sales all ugly) this morning - after tagging 19-year high yields overnight - helped by lower oil prices (or not higher) as Trump claimed Hormuz 'open' (but diesel is a disaster). Stocks under pressure, led by tech/AI, as credit risks (NVDA) are back on traders' minds (they never went away). Dollar flat while bitcoin jumped as gold dumped.
For months, we have been warning of the dramatic widening of credit risk for the hyperscalers/AI names (as stocks have rebounded from strength to strength) as CapEx needs demand equity dilution and debt-financing.