Bitcoin Overtakes Berkshire, Gold Dumped Off Record Pump, Bonds & Big-Tech Slump
Another day, another set of shitty data dragged US macro surprise index down to lowest since May...
Source: Bloomberg
And before today's surge in the dollar and bond yields, financial conditions had dramatically eased to their loosest since early August...
Source: Bloomberg
But - the big story of the day was bitcoin and bullion.
Bitcoin ripped back above $42,000 for the first time since April 2022 - erasing all the TerraUSD/3AC crisis losses from last year...
Source: Bloomberg
That pushed Bitcoin's market cap above that of Berkshire Hathaway (as Munger turns over in his grave)...
Gold hit a new (nominal) record high overnight at $2135...
Source: Bloomberg
...but shortly after that the selling began as Benoit was called in...
It's 830pm in Basel and he is still in the office.
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 4, 2023
They are not happy with what happened. pic.twitter.com/zeUHmoWd6a
...within the next 8 hours, spot gold prices had dropped $115 from its intraday highs...
Source: Bloomberg
...that is the 6th biggest absolute $ intraday drop in the history of spot gold trading (9/23/11 & 9/26/11 (SNB intervention as gold soared near $2,000), 04/15/13 (taper tantrum), 3/16/20 (COVID lockdowns), 08/11/20 (vaccines))...
Source: Bloomberg
Despite the weak data, yields were higher today.
Bonds dumped most of Friday's pump with yields up across the curve. The short-end underperformed on the day(2Y +11bps, 30Y +4bps)...
Source: Bloomberg
2Y yields are up around 14bps off Friday's lows...
Source: Bloomberg
Huge divergences in equity-land as long-duration (tech) underperformed as yields rose but Small Caps soared (short-squeeze) with The Dow scarmbling to unch on the day and S&P weak...
Unprofitable Tech stocks continue to outperform the Magnificent 7, with the latter now back at support levels seen in the early summer relative to the unprofitable names...
Source: Bloomberg
Before today's decline, 163 S&P 500 members were 'overbought' on an RSI basis, the most since June 2020...
Source: Bloomberg
Nasdaq underperformed Russell 2000 for the 4th day in a row, breaking below the uptrend channel...
Source: Bloomberg
Hedgies were hammered today again, extending Friday's loss for the biggest 2 day loss this year as a short-squeeze hit their shorts and selling hit their biggest longs...
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ripped higher today (no manipulation of gold of course) for its best day in almost two months...
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices were lower on the day (as the dollar soared) with WTI finding support around $73 and chopping around there all day...
Finally, US cyclical stocks continue to charge higher, complteley decoupling from weaker and weaker economic data and falling oil prices... feels a little exuberant here...
Source: Bloomberg
And, after spending July thru Oct starting to recouple with liquidity's reality, US equities exploded divergently in November...
Source: Bloomberg
What happens first - major central bank liquidity expansion... or a crash in stocks?
