Brent -7%, USD weaker as US pauses strikes on Iran; Equities benefit with NQ outperforming - Newsquawk US Market Open

European bourses are firmer following a similar APAC lead, as oil prices and yields slumped on the lack of US-Iran weekend action.
Crude oil and gas futures were weighed down by the US not striking Iran over the weekend. Metals benefit across the board.
However, US CENTCOM commander Cooper advised the Pentagon and the White House that the next possible step is to return to a large-scale military operation.
Fixed income markets are higher; US focus turns to supply & midterms. No move to German Ifo or ECB speak. In FX, the DXY is softer to the benefit of G10 peers, although petro-currencies fail to benefit.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods Orders (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2). Supply from the US. Earnings from LVMH. Comments from US President Trump.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European Bourses - Begin the week firmer (STOXX 600 +0.8%) as oil prices and yields fall after the US halts strikes on Iran. The DAX outperforms as SAP continues to climb, while Spain’s IBEX is supported by strength in Retail and Travel. The FTSE 100 and OMX Copenhagen lag as Shipping and Oil majors come under pressure.
Sectors - Trade broadly higher, with the exception of Energy and Utilities. Moves are driven by geopolitical de-escalation, with Retail and Travel & Leisure leading, while Tech also outperforms following CXMT’s surge on its Shanghai debut.
US equity futures - Firmer on easing Middle East tensions (ES +0.8%, NQ +1.5%, RTY +1.3%), with focus on upcoming earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Amazon and Apple, set to test the resilience of the AI trade.
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FX

DXY - Softer (-0.2%) as oil and yields moderate following the US halt to strikes on Iran. The index trades within a tight 101.11–101.32 range, with the geopolitical pause and easing tightening bets weighing on the Buck, though the outlook remains fluid ahead of the Fed this week.
JPY - Firmer amid the softer USD backdrop and lower yields though moves remain contained in a 163.32-163.71.
EUR- EUR is stronger against the USD, with EUR/USD briefly moving above 1.14 to a 1.1418 peak before paring gains. Newsflow light, with Ifo broadly in line and focus turning to upcoming growth and inflation data later in the week.
GBP - GBP is modestly firmer vs USD but underperforms EUR, with EUR/GBP higher. Price action is likely driven by the unwinding of recent Sterling outperformance, while attention turns to the BoE meeting where a pause is expected, with the vote split in focus.
Antipodeans - Antipodeans outperform as risk sentiment improves, supported by the pullback in oil and yields alongside the broader USD softness.
RBI likely sold USD via state run banks to lift INR past 96, according to traders.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7911 vs exp. 6.7703 (prev. 6.7939).

FIXED INCOME

UST - Firmer, benefiting from the pullback in energy prices following the pause in US strikes on Iran. The contract reaches a 108-22 peak, up around 10 ticks on the day, though remains shy of recent 109-00 and 109-08+ highs. Focus turns to upcoming 2yr and 5yr supply, while broader attention also builds around US midterm developments.
Bund - Bunds move in tandem, lifting to a 124.95 peak but failing to test the 125.00 handle or last week’s 125.10 high. There was little reaction to the Ifo release, which is broadly constructive despite softer current conditions, nor to ECB’s Kazimir, who reiterated a hawkish stance with a high bar to avoid a September hike.
Gilt - Gilts gap higher and extend gains by over 50 ticks, approaching but not reaching last week’s 87.37 peak. The move is driven by the broader fixed income bid on lower yields, with some additional support from reporting around PM Burnham's approach to the welfare bill.
Australia sold AUD 300mln 3.00% March 2047 bonds b/c 3.22, avg yield 5.4319%.

COMMODITIES

Crude futures - Crude was sharply lower following the US pause in strikes on Iran, though losses were trimmed into the European morning. Brent Oct’26 fell over 7% at worst to USD 84.91/bbl (vs high USD 88.95/bbl), while WTI Sep’26 dropped to a USD 82.46/bbl trough (vs peak USD 86.20/bbl). Dutch TTF also slumped, dipping below EUR 58/MWh before recovering towards EUR 59.50/MWh.
Precious metals - Precious metals were firmer intraday but off best levels as energy pared losses. Spot gold traded towards the lower end of a USD 4,083.80–4,116.19/oz range (vs Friday’s USD 4,052/oz close). Spot silver similarly sat towards the bottom of a USD 59.08–60.09/oz range (vs Friday’s USD 58.20/oz low).
Base metals - Base metals posted modest gains but also came off highs as energy recovered. 3M LME copper traded within a narrow USD 13,615.00–13,730.43/t range.
CPC’s Black Sea terminal expected to resume oil loadings today following a one week suspension after drone attacks, sources say.
Iraqi militias and political parties have received official approvals to establish oil facilities; Iraq has allocated about 1.5mln BPD for domestic consumption, including 300K BPD for the Ministry of Electricity. The reported note that more than a third of Iraq’s oil production revenues since 2011 have gone to militias and political parties.
A magnitude 5.5 earthquake struck the Antofagasta region of Chile, according to EMSC.

TRADE/TARIFFS

China Foreign Ministry said China's countermeasures on EU do not target any one country.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

European Commission is considering watering down a large business levy which was designed to raise funding relating to the next 7yr budget, Politico reported citing sources. Officials said to be considering exempting loss-making companies and raising the revenue threshold to exclude smaller businesses for the "Corporate Resource for Europe" charge.
UK PM Burnham hinted he will make it more difficult to claim benefits to bring down the welfare bill, according to Huffington Post. It was separately reported that Burnham said UK must get really serious about cutting welfare.
France questioned UK involvement in EU’s EUR 5bln tech start-up fund, according to FT.
Italy cabinet to meet at 16:30EDT/17:30CET to discuss diesel costs.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

EU Loans to Households YoY (Jun) Y/Y 3% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.1%).
EU M3 Money Supply YoY (Jun) Y/Y 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.2%).
EU Loans to Companies YoY (Jun) Y/Y 4.0% (Prev. 4%).
German Ifo Expectations (Jul) 86.7 (Prev. 84.1).
German Ifo Current Conditions (Jul) 86.5 (Prev. 87.0).
German Ifo Business Climate (Jul) 86.6 vs. Exp. 86.1 (Prev. 85.6).
UK CBI Distributive Trades (Jul) -26 vs. Exp. -45 (Prev. -54).
Swedish Household Lending Growth YoY (Jun) Y/Y 3.2% (Prev. 3.1%).

NOTABLE EUROPEAN EQUITY HEADLINES

Volkswagen's (VOW3 GY) Audi H1 update (EUR): Revenue 29.2bln (prev. 32.6bln). Downgrades the FY26 revenue guide to 58-63bln (prev. 63-68bln).
AstraZeneca (AZN LN) Q2 2026 (USD): Revenue 15.4bln (exp. 15.3bln), adj. EPS 2.63 (exp. 2.50). Interim dividend of USD 1.06/shr (prev. 1.03/shr)Sales Breakdown. Product: 14.51bln, +5%. Alliance: 874mln, +34%. CEO. "We remain confident in the strength of our pipeline and have more than twenty high-value readouts due over the next 18 months". "...on track to deliver our USD 80bn Total Revenue ambition, which assumes successes and setbacks".

CENTRAL BANKS

ECB’s Kazimir said second round effects are costly to reverse, ECB must act before they are visible; at least one more hike needed as part of measured adjustment to inflation risks. A rate hike will be warranted even if the inflation situation improves somewhat. Should the situation escalate, with the price pressures becoming stronger and more persistent, we will need to tighten more over the next quarters than is currently expected. Incoming data and geopolitical developments would need to be very convincing to do for me not to advocate another hike in September; We didn’t surprise the markets now, we shouldn’t surprise them in September.
Swiss Total Sight Deposits (w/e Jul 18) 469.27bln (prev. 469.4bln W/W), Domestic 442.66bln (prev. 443bln W/W).
Indonesia Central Bank Governor Perry Warjiyo steps down due to personal reasons, while Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti will act as interim Governor. Damayanti said Bank Indonesia will continue to prioritise professional governance and will work with the government to run the economy, also said they will do their mandate as normal and in accordance with best practices.
Monetary Authority Singapore slightly raises the rate of appreciation of the SGD NEER policy band, while it makes no change to the width and level it is centred. said:. Inflation could pick up more strongly than anticipated if energy price spikes anew. MAS core inflation is projected to step up from July and remain elevated, but should moderate discernibly from around mid-2027. Expectation is that overall GDP will be sustained at high levels in the near term. Singapore's economy is forecast to record a firm pace of growth for 2026 as a whole. Singapore's imported costs are likely to rise in the quarters ahead.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

Sources say Bipartisan Senate talks over funding federal agencies past the 30th September deadline are trending in the right direction, Punchbowl reported.

NOTABLE US EQUITY HEADLINES

Disney+ (DIS) expands live content offerings with esports and music festivals, to stream MLB games via partnership with SPOTV.
NVIDIA (NVDA) expands agent toolkits with PhysicsNeMo and CUDA-X libraries for autonomous engineering AI.
NVIDIA (NVDA) is in talks with OpenAI to guarantee USD 250bln financing for data centre, according to WSJ.
Newsquawk Weekly US Earnings Estimates - 27th-31st July 2026: Earnings plentiful with Mag-7 names the standouts.
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) wins dismissal of shareholder lawsuit stemming from 2022 infant Formula recall, according to a court ruling.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

US President Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on Tuesday, according to Axios.
Ukraine air force noted ballistic missile threat from the east and UAV detected in Dnipropetrovsk region.
Multiple apartments and 15 vehicles are on fire in Russia's Belgorod after a UAV attack, according to TASS.

MIDDLE EAST

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said some countries in the region are continuing to be involved in the conflict, they need to stop. The conversation between Iran and Oman regarding Hormuz have been positive.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, in an interview on Sunday, said Iran has no fear of negotiations, but it will not accept negotiations whose goal is to dictate or impose demands.
Yemen Navy official said that a Navy patrol boat was attacked and destroyed on Sunday in the Red Sea, which left three crew members missing and the official blamed Houthi militants firing from several small boats.
Fewer than 10 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz daily over the weekend, according to shipping data. It was separately reported that shipping traffic through Bab el-Mandeb fell on Sunday after Yemeni Houthis attacked Saudi oil installations along the ‌Red Sea coast.
US Central Command Commander Cooper stressed that the two weeks of strikes in the Strait of Hormuz area had significantly degraded Iran's ability to attack ships, according to Axios's Ravid.
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said diplomacy remains open, but our priority is defending the nation.
Yemen's Houthis said on Sunday that it attacked three Saudi oil tankers in the past 48 hours and is enforcing maritime blockade measures against vessels linked to Saudi Arabia.
Houthi-Affiliated Al Masirah TV said Saudi strikes attack Yemen’s Kamaran Island.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Araghchi met with his Chinese counterpart, Mehr News reported; the sides discussed the Middle East situation.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said they have not accepted a 10 day ceasefire.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said they have not requested the resumption of talks with the US, intermediaries are conveying messages to the US. Kuwait has effectively made its territory available to the US.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the situation around Hormuz has not changed, it remains shut.
IDF intercepted two drones over the border with Jordan, TimesofIsrael's Fabian reported.
Iranian army reiterates that it will response more severely to "any possible incursions by the enemies", Tasnim reported.
Saudi Foreign Ministry said Saudi Arabia discussed with Oman the issue of ensuring the freedom and safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, Al Hadath reported.
Iranian TV said a ship was involved in an accident, and five ships that attempted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz via the unsafe passage this morning were turned back.
Explosion reported in Erbil, Northern Iraq, according to Press TV.
Israeli forces raid areas in West Bank and Jerusalem, according to IRNA.
Sources told Asharq that Trump and Aoun are discussing a security agreement between Washington and Beirut.
UK PM Burnham and Saudi Crown Prince MBS discussed regional developments in a telephone conversation, according to IRNA.
An oil tanker exploded in the Strait of Hormuz after hitting a naval mine when it deviated from a navigation route designated by Iran, Mehr News reported.
Iranian media reported of explosions in Jordan.
Jordan Army said it downed two drones.
Israel PM Netanyahu is travelling to Washington for a White House meeting with President Trump tomorrow, I24 reporter said.

OTHER

Israeli official said PM Netanyahu’s planned visit to Washington has been postponed; no reason cited, and no new date has been set.
CPC’s Black Sea terminal expected to resume oil loadings today following a one week suspension after drone attacks, sources say.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin remains flat/subdued just above the USD 65k mark.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks were mostly positive, with risk sentiment underpinned as oil prices and yields declined following a halt in US-Iran strikes over the weekend, although some of the gains are capped, with price action somewhat choppy during the session as participants also await several major central bank meetings and key earnings later in the week.
ASX 200 was led higher by strength in tech, materials and miners, while energy and defensives lag.
Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with price action choppy amid recent currency moves, intervention risks, lower yields, and softer-than-expected Services PPI data, while participants also await the BoJ later in the week.
KOSPI saw two-way trade and ultimately declined despite reports of NVIDIA deals with South Korean firms including SK Group and Naver, with the sector cautious ahead of key tech earnings.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive as Hong Kong was led higher by tech stocks including CXMT stakeholders such as Xiaomi and Meituan, with energy at the other end of the spectrum following the drop in oil prices, while the attention in the mainland was on CXMT, which soared over 500% on its debut in Shanghai's STAR Market, making it mainland China's most valuable company by market cap.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

Chinese President Xi holds phone talks with Brazilian President Lula, while Xi called for China and Brazil to play a greater role in improving the global governance and upholding international fairness and justice. said:. China is ready to further strengthen bilateral multilateral strategic coordination with Brazil. China and Brazil should jointly promote high-quality development of the Greater BRICS Corporation. Supports Brazil in rejecting external interference.
Seven new suspected H5 bird flu cases were identified in South Australia.
Japanese PM Takaichi said the government is ready to take further timely action as needed to cushion economic blow from the Middle East conflict, adds FX rates move on various factors and it's hard to identify impacts of any specific factor. said:. Raising Japan's growth potential and its competitive advantage will boost market trust in the yen. Monetary policy adjustment and specific monetary policy means are up to the BoJ to decide.
Japanese PM Takaichi will address measures including a consumption tax reduction in her press conference later today.
Japanese PM Takaichi said cutting debt-to-GDP ratio is key to fiscal management.
Japanese PM Takaichi does not comment about the possibility of a cabinet reshuffle.
Japanese panel said to be looking at revising up minimum wage target; looking at hiking to "high JPY 1100 range", Kyodo reported.
Japan PM Takaichi noted Japanese inflation is amongst the lowest in the G7, adds that there are encouraging signs emerging for the wage outlook.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

Hong Kong Balance of Trade (Jun) -52B (Prev. -44.2B).
Hong Kong Exports YoY (Jun) Y/Y 53.4% (Prev. 40.8%).
Hong Kong Imports YoY (Jun) Y/Y 45.4% (Prev. 42%).
Japanese Coincident Index Final (May) 117.9 vs. Exp. 118.5 (Prev. 118.1).
Japanese Leading Economic Index Final (May) 116.5 vs. Exp. 116.8 (Prev. 116.1).
Japanese Services PPI YY (Jun) 3.2% vs Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.3%).
Chinese Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY (Jun) Y/Y 18.7% (Prev. 18.8%).
Chinese Industrial Profits YY (Jun) 15.1% (Prev. 21.1%).

NOTABLE GLOBAL EQUITY HEADLINES

Softbank (9984 JT) is said to be nearing a deal for Blackstone's (BX) Japanese payments unit, Bloomberg reported.
The Trump administration will launch a global partnership with more than 20 allies today to accelerate the development of secure 6G wireless networks, as it seeks to blunt China's influence, Politico reported.
Nvidia (NVDA) and members are forming an alliance to build and share open tools that promote responsible use of and trust in AI. Firms involved include: NVIDIA, Adobe, Cadence, Capital One, Cisco, Cloudera, Cloudflare, Cognition, CrowdStrike, Databricks, Dell Technologies, DoorDash, Elastic, HPE, Hugging Face, IBM, LangChain, the Linux Foundation, Microsoft, NAVER, NetApp, Nous Research, OpenClaw, Palantir, Palo Alto Networks, Red Hat, Reflection AI,Salesforce, SAP, SK Telecom, ServiceNow, Siemens, Snowflake, SpacexAI, Synopsys, Thinking Machines Lab and TrendAI.