Buy-Now-Pay-Later Klarna Crashes As Outlook Cut Exposes Consumer Growth Cracks
Klarna, the Swedish fintech firm best known for its buy now, pay later services, crashed in premarket trading in New York after it lowered its full-year revenue and gross merchandise value forecasts following a second-quarter active-user miss, overshadowing stronger-than-expected earnings.
The buy-now, pay-later firm now expects 2026 revenue of $4.08 billion to $4.16 billion, down from a previous forecast exceeding $4.34 billion. Gross merchandise value is projected to be $149 billion to $151 billion, compared with earlier guidance of above $155 billion.
Third-quarter revenue is expected to range from $940 million to $980 million, well below the $1.11 billion consensus estimate. The company forecast gross merchandise value of $35 billion to $36 billion, versus expectations of $39.26 billion.
Second-quarter revenue was a bright spot, rising 27% to $1.04 billion and beating estimates, while gross merchandise value reached $36.6 billion. Earnings were 1 cent per share, compared with an expected 6 cent loss. But active users totaled 120 million for the quarter, missing the 122 million estimate.
Klarna cited about $600 million of currency headwinds and a more cautious view of Germany, its largest market by volume. The company left its US outlook unchanged, with US gross merchandise value rising 27% during the quarter.
Klarna noted that "the U.S. remains Klarna's fastest-growing large region."
Klarna also said CFO Niclas Neglén will step down in early 2027 after six years in the role.
Nordea analyst Thomas Nilsson provided clients with his first take on the earnings:
Klarna Group plc – Buy/USD 30: Strong Q2 overshadowed by FY26 guidance cut
Klarna delivered a strong Q2 with accelerating growth and improving profitability. GMV rose 18% y/y to USD 36.6bn, revenue increased 27% to USD 1.04bn, and transaction margin dollars grew 42% to USD 446m. Adjusted operating income increased to USD 91m, 100% above Visible Alpha consensus, corresponding to a margin of 9%.
The main negative was guidance. FY26 GMV guidance was cut to USD 149-151bn from >USD 155bn, mainly due to FX headwinds and softer volumes in Europe, particularly Germany. Klarna now expects FY26 adjusted operating income of USD 280-300m, compared with previous guidance of >USD 299m. Conclusion: A strong Q2 report that is overshadowed by the GMV guidance cut. Q3 adjusted operating income guidance is only USD 5-15m due to heavy investments ahead of the peak season. With FY26 guidance lowered by ~7% at the midpoint, we expect negative revisions to consensus estimates in the high single digits. In light of this, we view a negative share price reaction of a similar or greater magnitude as warranted today.
Klarna shares are down 18.5% in premarket trading.
The most staggering figure from Klarna's earnings report is that more than 120 million consumers now use its payment network for everyday purchases, ranging from groceries and gasoline to airline tickets.
Management identified the US as its fastest-growing market, but that bright spot carries a darker macro warning: increasingly stretched US consumers are turning to short-term financing to cover routine expenses.