Citadel Securities Reflects On "A More Fragile World"

Authored by Nohshad Shah, Citadel Securities head of EMEA Fixed Income,

WAR WITH IRAN IS BACK. 

This week has seen a material escalation in kinetic activity, with sustained US strikes against Iranian coastal military sites, air defences, logistics infrastructure, maritime capabilities and, increasingly, transport and energy-related infrastructure deeper inside the country. Strikes around Bandar Abbas and southern Hormozgan suggest Washington is willing to move beyond purely military targets and pressure Iran’s ability to move people, goods, and energy along its southern corridor. In essence, the MoU and ceasefire framework have effectively collapsed. The Strait of Hormuz remains the central battleground, with POTUS having reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports that is now being actively enforced. Iran, in turn, is retaliating more broadly across the region…Tehran has resumed attacks on US allies and facilities, including in the GCC, and recent strikes suggest the risk to regional infrastructure is already beginning to materialise.