Container Ship Sinks In Hormuz After Iranian Strike Last Month; UBS Gives Latest Strait Update
The Egyptian-owned, Maltese-flagged container ship Safeen Prestige (IMO: 9593517), which was damaged in the first week of the U.S.-Iran conflict following an Iranian strike, has reportedly sunk in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Bloomberg, Pakistan's hydrographic service said the container ship sank last week, leaving only an oil slick on the surface of the water in the Hormuz chokepoint.
The IRGC torched the SAFEEN PRESTIGE in the Strait of Hormuz and continues to reignite the fire.
— سيف الدرعي| Saif alderei (@saif_aldareei) March 27, 2026
Now they’re illegally closing the strait
This is pure maritime terrorism, not politics.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is a global terrorist organization and must be treated as such. pic.twitter.com/u22UNaYSc5
Satellite imagery from the EU's Copernicus Browser appears to confirm this, showing the container ship on fire in late March and then disappearing from imagery by last Thursday.
The Safeen Prestige is owned by Transmar International Shipping of Egypt and managed by GFS Ship Management of Dubai, according to the maritime blog TradeWinds. It is also listed as a Maltese-flagged container ship on VesselFinder.
Data from the risk intelligence platform Sayari shows the ownership structure of the container ship:
The latest on Strait traffic comes from UBS analyst Henri Patricot, who noted as of Tuesday morning, there were still "mixed developments" in the maritime chokepoint.
Here's more from Patricot:
We mentioned on Friday that flows via the Strait picked up slightly as two oil tankers and a LNG carrier came out of the Gulf but this is still very limited and we continue to estimate an oil shortfall of ~12Mb/d, pre-SPR release.
Over the weekend, an Iranian spokesperson said that Iraqi ships would be allowed to pass through the Strait. It is not clear how that is different from previous comments that the Strait would be open to friendly countries and the announcement has not led to a visible increase in flows for now. Iraqi oil production has dropped by >3Mb/d since the start of the conflict as the country's alternative export routes are limited.
Separately, two Qatari LNG carriers attempting to cross the Strait on Monday ended up turning back.
UBS analyst Catherine Gordon provided more color:
Developments around the Strait of Hormuz remain mixed ahead of the latest stated US deadline, though dedicated investors are cautious about anchoring too heavily to the timing itself, given prior instances in which similar deadlines were set and later extended.
Even if President Trump ultimately opts to delay, soften, or walk back the deadline, that would do little to change the current reality of the oil disruption, as there is still no evidence of a meaningful improvement in flows.
While a small number of tankers have exited the Gulf, volumes remain extremely limited, two Qatari liquefied natural gas carriers reportedly turned back, and UBS continues to estimate an oil shortfall of approximately 12mb/d pre‑Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Weekend commentary suggesting Iraqi vessels may transit the Strait has yet to translate into observable normalization, even as Iraqi production has fallen by more than 3mb/d due to constrained export routes.
Against this backdrop, conditions are increasingly consistent with UBS's "two‑month disruption" scenario, with Brent potentially reaching around $130/bbl in the second quarter and remaining historically elevated through year‑end, lifting inflation and weighing modestly on growth without tipping the global economy into recession (Global Economics & Strategy note).
Polymarket odds have 13% odds of traffic resuming to normal by the end of April.
Professional subscribers can read more on the Hormuz chokepoint at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.