CPI Preview: A Core Print Above 0.3% Would Spoil The Party

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by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Jan 11, 2024 - 12:11 PM

While it's not expected to be a major market mover (certainly not comparable to the shock CPI prints of 2022 and early 2023), tomorrow's inflation print could lead to quite a few stop outs if it comes in hotter than expected.

  • Headline CPI is expected to accelerated in December, rising 0.2% vs the 0.1% increase in November, while core CPI is seen rising +0.3% M/M (whisper is > 0.3%, which the market would frown upon), matching the 0.3% November increase. There is little dispersion between the estimates, with the highest core CPI forecast at 0.3% and the lowest at 0.1%, which probably means we get either a 0.4% or a 0.0% print tomorrow.