CPI Preview: Here's What The Street Expects And How The Market Will React

Tomorrow's CPI report will be unique in that for the first time since inflation peaked last June, consensus expects headline inflation to remain unchanged at 5.0%, while core inflation - which last month surpassed headline for the first time since 2020 - is expected to decline just barely, from 5.6% to 5.5%, although there are those such as Goldman and JPM, who see both headline and core annual inflation posting a modest rise (more below).

On a sequential basis, the street is looking for an April headline CPI print of +0.4% MoM (a big bounce from prior 0.1%) while core is seen unchanged at +0.4% (prior +0.4%).