CPI Preview: An In-Line Day To Keep The Rate Hikes Away

Now that the labor situation is known (and lousy), attention turns to the July CPI due Wednesday at 8:30am ET, where we don't expect anything close to the same fireworks from last Friday's jobs print or last month's CPI report which saw the biggest drop since Covid. 

Expectations

• Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.1% M/M in July, rebounding from the remarkable oil-driven 0.4% decline in June, while the annual rate is expected to ease to 3.4% Y/Y from 3.5%.
• Core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.0%), with the annual rate of core inflation seen cooling to 2.5% Y/Y from 2.6%.