'December Rate-Cut Still Looks Likely': Goldman Sees Shift In Consumer Health, AI Impact On Labor Market

Powell was deliberately hawkish in the view of top Goldman trader Rich Privorotsky, as he went out of his way to emphasize that December was not a forgone conclusion. 

Powell’s press conference was admittedly more hawkish than many had expected, with Goldman noting that he did not reference the September dot plot, where the median projection implied a third cut in December.

And he said more emphatically than at the last meeting that policy is not on a preset course (“far from it”), acknowledged that there are “strongly different views” on the FOMC about a December cut, and noted that some participants might see the lack of official data as a reason not to cut in December.

Goldman suspects there is substantial opposition on the FOMC to the risk management cuts and that Powell thought it was important to voice other participants’ concerns today.