Dismal Data, Choppy Chipmakers, & A Fed Dove Send Bonds, Stocks, & Gold Higher

Disappointing data (all the macro you can eat is dovish), divergences in the AI leaders (TPUs >> GPUs?), and a (capital-D) Dove for Fed Chair sent rates lower, rate-cut odds higher, and stocks, gold, and crypto higher.

Dismal Data: US Macro was weak today as the shutdown release valve is opened. As Goldman's Chris Hussey notes, after weeks of very little data, markets are having to digest a bunch of 'catch-up' releases as the federal government agencies re-open and report on the economy again. The data we are getting today, however, is particularly dated. Two months into the 4Q, we are getting data today from the last month of the 3Q (the summer quarter) -- making it not particularly relevant for understanding how things are going today or, more importantly, how things might go tomorrow and into next year. Nevertheless, markets consume what they get...