"Door To Doom Has Opened" As Hartnett Spots "Obvious Echo" To 1999 And 2009

Two weeks ago, in a note titled "The Boom Loop" BofA CIO Michael Hartnett wrote that with the Trump admin desperately ön maneuvers to maintain the Treasury bid (FX supports for Asia/Middle East are owners of $3.8 trillion in Treasuries) which is key to reverse the “deflation” of Trump inflation disapproval", avoiding a bond market rout is absolutely critical; which is why Hartnett expected Trump and Bessent to successfully hold the 5% "Maginot Line" for 30 year Treasuries.... for if it doesn't, and should "the 5% Maginot Line break badly - here the BofA strategist reminds us that booms/bubbles always end with sharp jump in yields: JGBs +230bps in ’89, USTs +260bps in '99, China +150bps in '07 - then "the door to doom starts to open."

Fast forward to today, when "the door to doom" has cracked wide open for toxic cloud of sulfur to cross, as not only has the 30Y not held 5.00% but closed Friday 11bps above the "Maginot Line", and worse, is on the verge of breaking above a multi-year resistance, which will promptly see long-end yields spike by multiple sigma in one day as a historic VaR shock is now in play.