Everyone Is Asking About The "2024" And "Long-Run" Dots: Here's What Wall Street Says Will Happen

The overwhelming consensus from Wall Street analysts, S&P options, and, of course, the Fed's own prior dovish dot plot, is expecting the Fed's dots to show at least 75bps of rate cuts for 2024 (with many banks expecting more), which is in-line with recent macro events and suggests that the market is not expecting any major shift from the FOMC or any meaningful impact on equities.

As shown in the chart below, while there have been whispers of a dot plot shift from 3 to 2 cuts in 2024, only Nomura has 2 cuts as its base case: all other banks are at three or more.