From Fear Of The Fed To Complacency, Top Goldman Derivatives Trader Sees 'AI Trade' Stalling

After July's painful drawdowns for fundamental long/short managers, the second-quarter earnings season has delivered one of the strongest beat rates on record. Yet, as Shawn Tuteja, who runs ETF and custom baskets volatility trading at Goldman Sachs, writes in his latest clear-eyed assessment of the current equity landscape (available here for pro subs), the market has largely refused to reward those surprises. At the same time, the AI complex that dominated the first half of the year has bounced unevenly off its late-July lows, with clients beginning to differentiate between themes rather than treating the entire trade as a single block. Tuteja's framework centers on a near-term range-bound SPX, a potential zone of complacency into the September FOMC, and a more selective approach to the AI complex now that positioning has cleaned up and implied volatility has re-rated lower.

Below Tuteja attempts to 1) lay out a near-term framework for US equities in light of the strong EPS season and FOMC path and 2) talk through fundamentals and technicals of the AI trade. 

Framework