Force Majeure Is Not A City In France
Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
There are certain phrases you don’t want to hear when you’re involved in a massive infrastructure project, and “force majeure” is pretty high on the list.
Yet after Oracle shares started getting federally a** pounded today following reports that the company had issued a force majeure notice connected to its enormous Project Jupiter AI data center in New Mexico, the afternoon quickly turned into one of my favorite Wall Street traditions: corporations explaining why the alarming sounding thing everybody just read and understands crystal clearly is actually completely normal, totally misunderstood by everyone and nobody should worry about anything.
For those unfamiliar, force majeure is a contractual provision generally invoked when extraordinary circumstances outside a party’s control interfere with, or threaten to interfere with, its ability to perform under a contract. Oracle reportedly issued the notice to a unit of Blue Owl Capital developing Project Jupiter, citing potential delays in securing power and protecting Oracle financially if the facility doesn’t come online as scheduled.
Project Jupiter is a massive New Mexico AI campus tied to the Stargate buildout and Oracle’s relationship with OpenAI, requiring roughly 2.4 gigawatts of power and relying heavily on Bloom Energy fuel cells. The problem is that a natural gas pipeline needed to supply the site has reportedly been pushed back roughly six months following permitting problems, while a separate air quality permit for the fuel cell system remains pending. So when news of the force majeure notice hit, Oracle shares sold off sharply and Bloom Energy got dragged down with them.
Then came the idiotic damage control.
Oracle said on X that the project “remains on our planned schedule” and that force majeure notices are “commonplace in developments of this scale” and are often used simply to preserve contractual rights, adding that the notice does not itself establish a project delay or change delivery expectations.
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Technically, that’s true. But companies also don’t issue force majeure notices because everything is going f**king fantastic.
The entire purpose is to protect yourself because some circumstance has arisen, or may arise, that creates enough risk around contractual performance to make protecting yourself necessary.
Bloom Energy then joined the reassurance tour, saying that after speaking with Oracle, it had been assured Oracle “remains committed to Project Jupiter and its contract with Bloom to deliver 2.4 GW of fuel cell capacity” and that Bloom remains excited to execute on Oracle’s planned timeline.
Nothing says confidence like rushing to phone your customer during a stock selloff and then immediately telling X that you just called your customer during a stock selloff. Last time someone did this it was Steve Mnuchin “calling the banks” when the market served investors up a royale fu*k deluxe with cheese back in December 2018.
Look. None of this means Project Jupiter is dead, and Oracle may ultimately deliver the project on schedule exactly as it says it will. But dismissing the notice as meaningless contractual housekeeping also misses the point. It also insults the intelligence of anyone with an IQ higher than that of Ilhan Omar. There is a reason it was issued, just as there is a reason a pipeline has been delayed and permits remain unresolved.
Investors have spent the last several years valuing the AI infrastructure boom as though converting hundreds of billions of dollars of announced spending into functioning data centers is basically a matter of ordering GPUs and plugging them into the wall. In reality, you need land, financing, transformers, transmission, gas, pipelines, permits, cooling and an almost incomprehensible amount of electricity. Every one of those things introduces another potential failure point. As bond yields keep rising, those failure points present themselves more and more.
Read: Bonds Are About To Crash The Stock Market
The financial chain is equally important. Oracle signs enormous AI contracts, which justify enormous data centers, which justify enormous financing packages, which create enormous orders for companies like Bloom and Nvidia, which create enormous backlogs that investors then capitalize into enormous valuations.
As long as everything moves according to plan, the machine works beautifully. But if data centers start getting delayed, equipment deliveries and revenue can get delayed with them. If revenue gets pushed out, financing assumptions can change. If financing becomes more difficult, suddenly some of those gigantic AI backlogs investors have treated almost like cash in the bank start looking considerably less certain.
One force majeure notice doesn’t break the AI boom. But this is exactly the kind of crack I’m watching for. If we start seeing more force majeure notices, delayed power projects, stressed data center debt, renegotiated contracts and suppliers rushing onto social media to assure everybody that their customers are definitely still committed, then we may be looking at something that could set off the crash.
Read: The Real AI Crash Will Start This Year
Force majeure may not be a city in France, but companies generally don’t go there when everything is going according to plan. Just keep that in mind.
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