France's Champagne Output Set To Crash 48% As Harvest Crisis, Sliding Chinese Demand Batter Vineyards

A perfect storm of sliding demand, shrinking vineyard acreage, and weather-damaged yields has sent France's Champagne output forecast for this year plunging.

Bloomberg cites new data from the Agriculture Ministry showing that Champagne output is projected to plunge 48% from 2025 to 1.34 million hectoliters. The estimate is based on the latest figures through Sept. 1.

The ministry also said that nationwide wine production is expected to fall 6% to 34 million hectoliters, putting the harvest 17% below its five-year average and among the smallest in three decades.

For French winemakers, the squeeze is coming from many directions: declining wine demand and adverse weather conditions have sent wine and spirits exports into a downward trend.

For instance, top French wine and spirits exporters Ricard, LVMH's wine and spirits division, and Rémy Cointreau show that weaker US and China demand has pressured sales since 2022-23. 

via Bloomberg...

In Burgundy, best known for its prestigious wines, particularly reds made from Pinot Noir and whites made from Chardonnay and situated in the eastern part of the country, losses exceed 50%. However, in the Bordeaux region, production is expected to rise 10% compared with the very low level recorded in 2025, thanks to improved yields. But the region is still expected to be 11% below the 2021-25 average. 

Last week, French authorities allocated more than 1 billion euros to farmers and vineyards affected by this summer's scorching heat waves and wildfires.

Separately, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported last month that much of the slowdown is coming from Asia buyers in revolt. 

"We've seen a much sharper drop in customers from China," Chinese-French wine merchant Arsen Zhao said. "Consumers are trading down, while large volumes of European wine imported previously have yet to be sold, leaving inventories high and weighing on new orders."

Zhao noted, "Some high-end French wines are now selling for less in China than in France." This has created turmoil for major wine brands as unsold inventory piles up and prices come under pressure. 

Turning to prices, Liv-ex, short for London International Vintners Exchange, a global marketplace where professional wine merchants buy and sell fine wine, reports that the latest data for several price indexes, including the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 and Champagne 50, have fallen from peaks over the last several years. 

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 index peaked in late 2022, plunged nearly 30%, and has formed what appears to be a bottom. 

The Champagne 50 index peaked in late 2022 and subsequently bottomed in 2025.

For wine collectors, the key question is whether the decline in Liv-ex wine indexes has put in a proper bottom, creating an attractive entry point to add to their collections.