The Full CPI "Scenario Analysis", And How Goldman And JPM Are Trading Tomorrow's Inflation Print

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by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Aug 09, 2023 - 06:45 PM

With the (softer than expected) jobs report behind us, the biggest market-moving event ahead is tomorrow's CPI print, where consensus expect the following prints:

  • CPI MoM 0.2%, Last 0.2%
  • CPI Core MOM 0.2%, Last 0.2%
  • CPI YoY 3.3%, Last 3.0%
  • CPI Core YoY 4.7%, Last 4.8%

Absent a big surprise, June may have been as good as it gets for inflation on a YoY basis, and now that base effects benefits are gone, we start going up again for headline inflation, especially with the recent surge in oil and gas prices.