The Full CPI "Scenario Analysis", And How Goldman And JPM Are Trading Tomorrow's Inflation Print

With the (softer than expected) jobs report behind us, the biggest market-moving event ahead is tomorrow's CPI print, where consensus expect the following prints:

• CPI MoM 0.2%, Last 0.2%
• CPI Core MOM 0.2%, Last 0.2%
• CPI YoY 3.3%, Last 3.0%
• CPI Core YoY 4.7%, Last 4.8%

Absent a big surprise, June may have been as good as it gets for inflation on a YoY basis, and now that base effects benefits are gone, we start going up again for headline inflation, especially with the recent surge in oil and gas prices.