Futures Drop After Latest Trump Headline Vortex, Silver Slides Ahead Of Index Rebalance

US futures are lower as New Year optimism gives way to jitters about the economy and geopolitics with attention turning to tomorrow's NFP report. Traders are also trying to make sense of Trump’s latest edicts on defense and corporate landlords, with a vortex of headlines making things feel more unpredictable than usual. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures drop 0.2% with Nasdaq 100 contracts -0.3% with tech names leading declines amid profit-taking on artificial-intelligence trade but off the day’s lows after a report that China is to approve some Nvidia H200 purchases as soon as this quarter. In premarket trading, Mag7 names mixed but net higher as Semis are weaker. Defense stocks are up after Trump demanded a $500 billion boost to annual defense spending. That followed an edict that major defense contractors that work with the government must end stock buybacks and dividends until they invest more in factories and research. Corporate landlords are also in the spotlight after Trump pledged on Wednesday to stop institutional investors buying more homes, with Blackstone closing 5.6% lower. Energy, Industrials, and Staples the leading sectors as the yield curve twists steeper and the USD has a slight bid. Key overnight headlines were that China is looking for new oil sources, and China will approve some NVDA H200 chips.  In commodities, crude is higher while Ags and Precious Metals are sold. Silver investors brace for an annual rebalancing of commodity indexes that could see futures contracts worth billions of dollars sold in the next few days. Today’s macro data focus is on jobless claims and the Challenger Job Cuts report, the latter showing a decline in job cuts as December hiring picks up. US economic calendar includes 3Q preliminary nonfarm productivity, weekly jobless claims and October trade balance (8:30am), wholesale inventories (10am), December NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am) and November consumer credit (3pm). Scheduled Fed speakers include Miran (8am and 10am)

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Alphabet (GOOGL) gains 0.7% as Cantor Fitzgerald upgrades to overweight (Amazon +0.3%, Nvidia +0.4%, Tesla -0.9%, Meta -0.4%, Microsoft -0.6%, Apple -1.2%). 

• Defense stocks advance, with Northrop Grumman (NOC) up 8% and Lockheed Martin (LMT) rising 7%, after President Trump said he wants to increase the country’s military budget by about 50% to $1.5 trillion in 2027.
• Alcoa (AA) falls 3% after JPMorgan downgrades the stock to underweight, saying the rating cut reflects relative valuation following a period of outperformance. The bank also said it prefers copper over aluminum.
• Globus Medical (GMED) gains 7% after the medical device maker issued a profit forecast for 2026 that beat expectations.
• Helen of Troy (HELE) drops 5% after the consumer products company cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
• Revolution Medicines (RVMD) falls 6% after AbbVie says it is not in talks to buy the cancer-drug developer.
• Soho House (SHCO) declines 11% after the members’ club operator said it faces a funding gap tied to the company’s pending sale.

In other corporate news, a regulatory filing revealed that the DOJ is conducting an in-depth review of Paramount Skydance’s hostile tender offer for Warner Bros., while Netflix also said it is engaging with antitrust authorities. JPMorgan is set to replace Goldman Sachs as the partner for Apple’s credit-card business. Revolution Medicines fell in extended trading after AbbVie said it’s not in discussions to acquire the cancer-focused biotech firm. Constellation Brands reported comparable EPS and net sales for the third quarter that beat estimates and reaffirmed its full-year forecast. No major earnings are expected before the market opens.

Sentiment was muted for the second day in a row as the January rally fizzled after soft ADP data left little incentive to add risk before Friday’s payrolls number, while shockwaves from the US raid on Venezuela continue to play out. Gold and silver fell for a second day, with investors bracing for an annual rebalancing of commodity indexes that could see futures contracts worth billions of dollars sold in the next few days (See Silver About To Crash: Why Two Banks Think A Meltdown Looms Next Week).

Defense stocks are up premarket after Trump demanded a $500 billion boost to annual defense spending. That followed an edict that major defense contractors that work with the government must end stock buybacks and dividends until they invest more in factories and research. Corporate landlords are also in the spotlight after Trump pledged on Wednesday to stop institutional investors buying more homes, with Blackstone closing 5.6% lower.

“We see a bit of a profit-taking after a couple of days and I think geopolitical risk remains quite high,” said Nataliia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank. “The market is now really positioning for the upcoming earnings season.”

Elsewhere in AI, China plans to approve some imports of Nvidia’s H200 chips as soon as this quarter for select commercial use, according to people familiar. And 2025’s hottest corner of the stock market — memory and storage companies — remains scorching in the new year, but some Wall Street pros are now wondering if a reversal is coming.

The rally in global bonds also stalled, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries rising two basis points after announced layoffs at US companies dropped to a 17-month low in December. Weekly jobless-claims data will offer further clues on the state of the labor market after earlier figures this week offered mixed signals.

One of Trump’s earlier campaigns, tariffs, are also back in the news, with the US Supreme Court poised to decide the fate of most of the duties as soon as Friday. More than 1,000 corporate entities are now involved, court records show. Even if the Supreme Court declares the tariffs unlawful, the justices are likely to leave the question of refunds to lower courts. 

Meanwhile, corporations and governments in the US, Europe and Asia have borrowed roughly $260 billion across currencies by the close of business on Wednesday, the highest tally on record for the comparable period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A further barrage of bond offerings is poised to push that number higher. At least 23 issuers are expected to price bonds in Europe’s primary market, raising at least €23.8 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In Asia, China announced plans to issue about $75 billion of bonds early this month.

European stocks are also tilting lower: the Stoxx 600 is down 0.3%, weighed down by IT, energy and materials names.Banks outperform, while British food retailers lag on disappointing Christmas trading. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday: 

• Soitec shares jump as much as 11% on Thursday after the semiconductor wafer firm named Infineon executive Laurent Rémont as its CEO starting in April.
• BAE Systems shares rise as much as 7%, leading a broad rally in defense shares after President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he will request an increase in the US military budget.
• OVH Groupe shares surge as much as 8.2%, the most since April, after the IT services firm reported higher first-quarter revenue compared to last year.
• Implenia shares jump as much as 6.4% and hit a record high after its joint venture with Marti won new rail infrastructure contracts.
• M&S shares gain as much as 3.7%, the most since November, after the UK retailer maintained its full-year guidance despite reporting a slowdown in clothing sales.
• Cerillion shares jump as much as 11%, the most since 2023, after the IT service firm won its largest-ever contract worth ~£42.5 million with Oman Telecommunications.
• Associated British Foods shares drop as much as 12% to a nine-month low after the group warned its profit will be lower than expected this fiscal year due to weaker Primark sales and a mixed performance in its food business.
• Tesco shares slide as much as 6% after Britain’s largest supermarket chain posted softer-than-expected like-for-like growth in its core market over the Christmas period.
• Greggs shares decline as much as 8.2%, the most in five months, as the baker’s trading update for the last three months of 2025 disappoints analysts.
• Shell shares drop as much as 3% in London after the British integrated oil company published a trading update analysts saw as a slight negative.
• Logitech falls as much as 5.4%, to the lowest level in five months, after BNP Paribas downgrades the Swiss firm to neutral from outperform, with its peripherals and gaming-related sales likely to face a hit from hikes in memory pricing.
• Sabic shares fall as much as 4.8% to the lowest level since April 2009 after the petrochemical firm reported non-cash losses from divesting two units.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell for a second day, with weakness in Hong Kong extending and Japanese shares reeling amid the country’s tensions with China.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.9%, the most in three weeks, with Tencent, SoftBank and Samsung among the biggest drags. Equities in Japan, Hong Kong and mainland China led the losses, while those in South Korea fluctuated. Hong Kong markets underperformed in the region, weighed down by a lackluster tech sector, with Lenovo sliding on concerns that surging memory prices will squeeze its margin. The mainland market was dragged by a retreat in local brokerage shares. After a strong start to 2026, the weakness in Hong Kong “may just be a breather,” said Marvin Chen, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. Japanese stocks extended their declines as investors turned cautious amid rising tensions with China. In the latest escalation, Beijing launched an anti‑dumping probe into dichlorosilane, a semiconductor material imported from Japan. Shares of Japanese chipmaking‑materials firms fell, while Chinese companies involved in dichlorosilane jumped.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index is a touch higher. Antipodeans lag, with the Aussie dented after cautious comments from Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser.

In rates, treasuries hold small curve-steepening losses amid deeper selloff in bunds following European government bond supply surge including syndicated sales by Italy and Portugal and conventional offerings by France and Spain. US yields cheaper by 1bp to 2bp with curve spreads slightly wider; 10-year near 4.17% is 1.6bp cheaper on the day, German counterpart by an additional 1.5bp. German yields are 1-2bps higher following strong factory orders. US 10-year yield is up 1bp with no follow-through from the early release of Challenger data, with layoffs at a 17-month low. Focal points of US session include jobless claims data and corporate new-issue slate adding to already historic weekly volume.

In commodities, spot gold and silver are down for a second day in a row with respective losses of 0.7% and 3.3%. Spot gold slipped below $4,450 an ounce, after losing nearly 1% in the previous session. Silver dropped below $75 an ounce. Brent crude held above $60 a barrel. WTI crude has continued to climb throughout the European session, higher by 1.5% but still on track for a weekly loss. Prices remain sensitive to updates on Venezuela. Bitcoin is down 1.0%. 

Looking at the day ahead, the US economic calendar includes 3Q preliminary nonfarm productivity, weekly jobless claims and October trade balance (8:30am), wholesale inventories (10am), December NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am) and November consumer credit (3pm). Scheduled Fed speakers include Miran (8am and 10am). Micron, Synopsys and News Corp are among companies presenting at the Needham growth conference in New York.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.4%
• DAX little changed
• CAC 40 -0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.16%
• VIX +0.4 points at 15.79
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1208.2
• euro little changed at $1.1677
• WTI crude +0.9% at $56.51/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The White House is drafting an executive order broadly targeted at addressing Americans’ frustration with the cost of living, including a push to allow people to dip into their retirement and college savings accounts to afford down payments on homes. The draft is also expected to move toward banning large investors from acquiring single-family homes. Politico 
• Trump said our military budget for the year 2027 should not be $1tln, but rather $1.5tln.
• House votes to advance Democrats' bill to extend expired healthcare subsidies. US bipartisan Senate group believes it is on the verge of a deal, regarding health care and a Obamacare subsidies extension, Punchbowl reports; however, the Hyde language is "now viewed more acutely as an insurmountable problem."
• Trump signs a Presidential Memorandum directing withdrawal of US from participation in 66 international organisations.
• Punchbowl reported that the State of the Union date of February 24th is firm, which US President Trump will deliver.
• Colombia expects tensions with the US to ease following an hour-long phone call between Donald Trump and Gustavo Petro, a senior Colombian diplomat said. The two presidents will meet at the White House at some point. BBG 
• US officials are said to be working on options for business deals in Greenland, including rare earth minerals mining and hydroelectric power, to step up links to the island. BBG 
• California Governor Gavin Newsom will call for a crackdown on institutional investors buying up homes in the state, targeting private equity and hedge fund investors purchasing homes, particularly corporate entities buying at scale. BBG 
• President Trump and his advisers are planning a sweeping initiative to dominate the Venezuelan oil industry for years to come, and the president has told aides he believes his efforts could help lower oil prices to his favored level of $50 a barrel. WSJ 
• US oil companies want “serious guarantees” from Washington before they make splashy investments in Venezuela as Trump urges them to back his bid to reshape energy markets. FT 
• Following Trump’s approval, The Senate could vote as soon as next week to impose new sanctions aimed at pressuring Russia to end its war with Ukraine. Politico 
• China plans to approve limited imports of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips this quarter, people familiar said. Sales will exclude military and state sectors. Reuters reported that Nvidia is requiring Chinese buyers to make full payment upfront. BBG 
• China said its latest export controls are aimed at the military and won’t affect civilian trade. It sought to reassure Japanese businesses amid concern over supply chains and rare earths. BBG 

Trade/Tariffs

• China is to reportedly approve some NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 purchases as soon as this quarter, according to sources cited by Bloomberg; China to bar H200 from state bodies and critical infrastructure; Beijing is said to allow commercial use of H200 AI chip. Alibaba (BABA) and Bytedance have both reportedly informed NVIDIA that they are interested in ordering in excess of 200k units each of the H200, according to sources.
• India's Foreign Ministry reportedly intends to remove restrictions on Chinese firms bidding for government contracts, according to sources.
• US President Trump posted "I have just been informed that Venezuela is going to be purchasing ONLY American Made Products, with the money they receive from our new Oil Deal". Full Post: "I have just been informed that Venezuela is going to be purchasing ONLY American Made Products, with the money they receive from our new Oil Deal. These purchases will include, among other things, American Agricultural Products, and American Made Medicines, Medical Devices, and Equipment to improve Venezuela’s Electric Grid and Energy Facilities. In other words, Venezuela is committing to doing business with the United States of America as their principal partner – A wise choice, and a very good thing for the people of Venezuela, and the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter!".

Central Banks

• BoJ's Nagoya region branch manager said US trade policy is having negative impact in the region, but is not dealing a severe blow to region's economy. Some firms in the region see China's export curb as potentially having an impact on their businesses.
• BoJ maintains its assessment on all Japan's 9 regions in its quarterly regional report.
• ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (Nov 2025 vs Oct 2025): median consumer perceptions of inflation over the previous 12 months remained unchanged, as did median inflation expectations for the next 12 months, for three years ahead and for five years ahead. 1-year: 2.8% (prev. 2.8%). 3-year: 2.5% (prev. 2.5%). 5-year: 2.2% (prev. 2.2%).
• ECB's de Guindos said the ECB is at inflation target, but uncertainty remains very high.
• BoE DMP (Dec): 1yr ahead CPI expectations maintained at 3.4%; 3yr ahead maintained at 2.9%. Wage Growth1yr ahead: 3.7% (prev. 3.8%).
• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser said likely seen the last rate cut in the cycle and the likelihood of near term rate cuts is very low, also noted November CPI data was helpful, but largely as expected, according to ABC interview.
• SNB Minutes: Governing Board confirmed that it remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary; Board will continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust monetary policy if necessary.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks eventually traded mostly negative following a similar handover from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and DJIA pulled back from record highs. ASX 200 traded marginally higher as strength in health care, tech, consumer stocks, energy and financials, offset the losses in mining and materials, with mild tailwinds seen amid a softer yield environment in Australia. Nikkei 225 extended its decline beneath the 52,000 level amid soft wages data from Japan and further frictions with China after MOFCOM yesterday announced an anti-dumping probe into Japan's dichlorosilane imports, which is a key chipmaking chemical, while Japan protested China's operation of mobile drilling rigs in waters on the Chinese side of the Japan-China median line in the East China Sea. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp eventually traded negative with the Hong Kong benchmark pressured amid tech-related weakness and with some early pressure seen in China’s OpenAI rival Knowledge Atlas Technology a.k.a. Zhipu, during its Hong Kong debut. The mainland eventually gave up the modest gains that were seen as the PBoC conducted a CNY 1.1tln outright reverse repo operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system.

Top Asian News

• China's Ambassador rejects Japan's export controls negotiations.
• PBoC announced on Wednesday it will conduct a CNY 1.1tln outright reverse repo operation on Thursday to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system.
• Fast Retailing (9983 JT) Q1 (JPY): Revenue 1.03tln (prev. 0.895tln), PBT 226.7bln (prev. 196.6bln), Net 147.5bln (prev. 131.9bln).

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) are mostly lower, following the negative tone seen in APAC trade. The DAX 40 (U/C) did initially buck the negative mood, with upside facilitated by strength in Rheinmetall (+3%) after President Trump called for a 50% increase in US defence spending by 2027. European sectors have opened mostly in the red. Leading sectors are Banks (+0.4%), Insurance (+0.2%) and Food Beverage & Tobacco (+0.2%). The banking sector has been underpinned by gains in BNP Paribas (+2.0%) after the Co. said that the judge's decision to certify the verdict in Sudan clears the path for the bank to pursue an appeal, otherwise newsflow has been light for the other outperforming sectors. To the downside, Basic Resources is weighed on by downside across underlying metals.

Top European News

• EU plans to pursue a special rulebook for corporates outside national law, which would create a voluntary ‘28th regime’ for companies to operate across EU, according to FT.

FX

• DXY is essentially flat/incrementally firmer and trades above its 100 DMA within a fairly narrow 98.67 to 98.82 range; further upside for the Dollar could see the test of its 200 DMA at 98.87, the round 99.00 mark and then the 50 DMA at 99.08. G10s are mixed against the Dollar, with some underperformance in the Antipodeans which have been weighed on by the risk-tone and pressure in the metals complex.
• Really not much driving things for the Dollar this morning, but with some focus on an early release of the US Challenger Layoffs (Dec), which fell to 35.55k (prev. 71.3k). The inner report highlighted that “while December is typically slow, this coupled with higher hiring plans, is a positive sign after a year of high job cutting plans”. A constructive picture for the labour market, which follows on from a rebound in the ADP in the prior session (albeit that printed shy of expectations). Ahead, a couple more labour market metrics in the form of jobless claims and RevelioLabs Employment data.
• EUR is also flat and currently at the lower end of a narrow 1.1668-1.1682 range. A strong German Factory Orders print had little impact on the single currency this morning. Focus has been on regional geopolitics in the past couple of days; on one front, positive mood music out of Ukraine with President Zelenskiy suggesting that the war could end in H1’26. Elsewhere, Trump’s continued verbal assault on Greenland will keep NATO and allies on their toes.

Fixed Income

• A contained start for fixed benchmarks with newsflow somewhat light early doors aside from ongoing digestion of updates regarding Venezuela. But have gradually slipped from best levels as the morning progressed.
• USTs got to a 112-21 peak, firmer by three ticks, and Bunds to a 128.15 high with gains of 10 ticks at most early doors. Thereafter, the benchmarks began to gradually trim as the risk tone lifted off lows into the morning, with assistance coming via reporting regarding NVIDIA. For USTs, an early release of December's Challenger Jobs series spurred no move, headline printed at 35.55k (prev. 71.3k).
• Supply this morning came from Spain (fine, but softer than is usually the case) and France (strong overall), but neither outing spurred any significant move.
• Gilts opened near-enough unchanged just above 92.00 before extending to 92.16 and then falling to a 91.88 low, in-fitting with action in peers. No move to the latest DMP survey.
• Spain sold EUR 6.28bln vs exp. EUR 5.5-6.5bln 2.70% 2030, 3.00% 2033, 3.45% 2043 Bono & EUR 0.726bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.15% 2036 I/L Bono. EUR 2.8bln 2.70% 2030: b/c 2.21x (prev. 1.97x); average yield 2.51% (prev. 2.471%). EUR 2.01bln 3.00% 2033: b/c 2.08x (prev. 2.34x); average yield 2.94% (prev. 2.88%). EUR 1.46bln 3.45% 2043: b/c 1.87x; average yield 3.8%. 1.15% 2036 I/L: b/c 1.9x (prev. 2.63x); yield 1.51% (prev. 1.469%).
• France sold EUR 13.5bln vs exp. EUR 11.5-13.5bln 3.50% 2035, 0.50% 2040, 3.60% 2042 & 3.75% 2056 OAT. 3.50% 2035: b/c 1.98x (prev. 2.147x); average yield 3.53% (prev. 3.43%). 0.50% 2040: b/c 2.37x (prev. 2.272x); average yield 3.95% (prev. 3.898%). 3.60% 2042: b/c 2.12x (prev. 2.922x); average yield 4.05% (prev. 3.92%). 3.75% 2056: b/c 3.4x; average yield 4.46%.
• Japan sold JPY 524.9bln 30-yr JGBs; b/c 3.14x (prev. 4.04x), and average yield 3.447% (prev. 3.427%). Lowest accepted price 99.15 vs prev. 96.55. Average accepted price 99.30 vs prev. 96.64. Tail in price 0.15 vs prev. 0.09.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent front-month futures post mild upside as the contracts rebound after two consecutive sessions of losses and after the US’ effective seizure of Venezuela’s crude, which promises more barrels in the market and a likely move away from Canadian oil for the US. WTI Feb resides in a USD 55.97-56.51/bbl range whilst Brent Mar sits in a USD 59.96-60.48/bbl band.
• Nat Gas, meanwhile, is on a firmer footing once again after Dutch TTF settled over 2.5% higher, albeit off best levels, with traders citing the current cold snap across some of Europe. ING suggests that EU gas storage is now 58% full vs a 5-year average of 72%.
• Spot gold resides closer to the bottom end of a USD 4,415.40-4,466.48/oz range, but is still holding onto a long-term upward trend.
• Base metals succumb to the modestly firmer dollar and overall weaker risk, with 3M LME copper dipping back under USD 13k/t before finding some support at USD 12,687/t. Newsflow overall remains light, but traders are also cognizant of the SCOTUS update tomorrow, which could provide a ruling on President Trump’s Liberation Day and some targeted tariffs (possible, not guaranteed).
• HSBC forecasts gold to hit USD 5000/oz in H1'26 due to geopolitical risk and increasing fiscal debt; High volatility trading level likely.
• ICE plans 22-hour trade for European and UK gas and power by February 23rd.
• US President Trump's team works up a sweeping plan to control Venezuelan oil for years to come, while Trump believes his efforts could help lower oil prices to his favoured level of USD 50/bbl, according to WSJ.
• US oil companies warn they will need guarantees to invest in Venezuela, according to FT.
• Chevron is in talks with US government to expand Venezuela license and seeks authorisation to supply Venezuelan oil to other buyers, according to industry sources. US government also wants other US companies involved in oil exports from Venezuela.
• US Vice President Vance said Venezuela can only sell its oil if it serves US national interests, and the way we control Venezuela is to control the purse strings.

Geopolitics - Ukraine

• US VP Vance said seized oil tanker was a fake Russian tanker, while he stated the US had a legitimate indictment for Maduro and that President Trump will make a determination on Greenland.
• US Republican Senator Graham said after meeting Wednesday with US President Trump, that he has greenlit the bipartisan Russia sanctions bill, while Graham looks forward to a vote as early as next week.

Geopolitics - Middle East

• Israel considers Lebanon's efforts to disarm Hezbollah 'totally insufficient', Sky News Arabia reports
• Iranian Foreign Minister said "We are ready for any situation and we do not want war, but we are ready for it and we are also ready to negotiate", Al Jazeera reported. "We are ready to negotiate with the United States on the basis of mutual respect and mutual interests".

Geopolitics - Other

• US President Trump said the US would be extracting Venezuelan oil for years; "the oil will take a while in Venezuela"; said US oversight of Venezuela could last for years.
• US President Trump's administration draws up new legal justification for Maduro operation with DoJ's opinion expected to say that it was lawful because it was part of a law enforcement action, according to WSJ.
• US VP Vance said seized oil tanker was a fake Russian tanker, while he stated the US had a legitimate indictment for Maduro and that President Trump will make a determination on Greenland.
• China hacked email systems of US Congressional Committee staff with Beijing intelligence said to have used Salt Typhoon to access communications used by top panels in US Congress, while the intrusions were detected in December, FT reported.
• US President Trump comments it was a great honour to speak with Colombia's President, who called to explain the situation of drugs and other disagreements that we have had, Trump said he appreciates his call and tone and looks forward to meeting him. Full post: "It was a Great Honor to speak with the President of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, who called to explain the situation of drugs and other disagreements that we have had. I appreciated his call and tone, and look forward to meeting him in the near future. Arrangements are being made between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Foreign Minister of Colombia. The meeting will take place in the White House in Washington, D.C.".
• US Republican Senator Graham said after meeting Wednesday with US President Trump, that he has greenlit the bipartisan Russia sanctions bill, while Graham looks forward to a vote as early as next week.
• UK PM Starmer spoke with US President Trump this evening and set out his position on Greenland.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: 3Q P Nonfarm Productivity, est. 5%, prior 3.3%
• 8:30 am: 3Q P Unit Labor Costs, est. -0.09%, prior 1%
• 8:30 am: Jan 3 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 212.44k, prior 199k
• 8:30 am: Dec 27 Continuing Claims, est. 1900k, prior 1866k
• 8:30 am: Oct Trade Balance, est. -58.65b, prior -52.8b
• 10:00 am: Oct F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5%
• 3:00 pm: Nov Consumer Credit, est. 10.08b, prior 9.18b
• 10:00 am: Fed’s Miran Speaks in Athens

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

While geopolitical headlines stayed on the front page over the past 24 hours, market attention shifted towards domestic US policy late in yesterday’s session as President Trump’s social media posts dragged on shares of homebuilders and defence companies. That led the S&P 500 (-0.34%) to pull back after reaching new intra-day record highs. Sovereign bonds had a decent session thanks to soft European inflation and further oil price declines, with Brent crude (-1.22%) falling to below $60/bbl, though Treasuries underperformed as another strong batch of US data added to optimism on the 2026 outlook.

In the first of Trump’s posts that triggered a turn in market sentiment, the President said he was “immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes”, which weighed on various real estate-related stocks. Blackstone fell as much as -9% intra-day before closing -5.57% lower, while the capital goods industry group in the S&P was down -2.27%. Trump’s other target was the defence sector. He posted that “I will not permit Dividends or Stock Buybacks for Defense Companies” unless they invest more in production and maintenance and issued a related executive order later on. Defence contractors including Northrop Grumman (-5.50%), Lockheed Martin (-4.82%) and RTX (-2.45%) slid on the news. However, there were potentially better news for defence firms after the close, with Trump demanding a boost in the 2027 US defence budget from $1trn to $1.5trn. It is $901bn in the current 2026 fiscal year. 

The renewed policy risks left the S&P 500 -0.34% lower by the close. The move would have been considerably worse were it not for outperformance by the Magnificent 7 (+0.24%), as the equal-weighted S&P (-1.15%) had its worst day since November. In Europe, stocks had a mixed session, with a new record for the DAX (+0.92%) limiting losses for the STOXX 600 (-0.05%), with the FTSE 100 (-0.74%) leading on the downside.

The sell-off has mostly extended into Asia with the Hang Seng (-1.27%), Nikkei (-1.16%), and the CSI (-0.58%) lower. However, the KOSPI (+0.72%) is defying the negative trend, continuing its upward trajectory as demand for semiconductor stocks continues. The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.28%) is also experiencing slight gains on dovish central bank speak (details below). S&P 500 (-0.20%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.31%) futures are both lower again. 

Early morning data indicated that Japan’s real wages fell by -2.8% year-on-year in November, worsening from October’s revised decline of -0.8% and marking the 11th consecutive monthly decrease, with the weakest result recorded since late 2023. Nominal wages exhibited a similar trend, with total cash earnings increasing by only +0.5% year-on-year (compared to +2.3% expected), representing the slowest growth rate since December 2021. 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) have decreased by -3.4bps, trading at 2.08% as I write. 

Meanwhile, Australian government bonds are rallying hard, with 10-year bond yields decreasing by -9.0bps to trade at 4.67%. The policy-sensitive 3-year bonds are trading -8.4bps lower at 4.07%. This follows comments from RBA’s Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who expressed what is being interpreted as a dovish stance by indicating that the central bank is adopting a one- to two-year perspective on inflation instead of responding to individual data releases.

In term of yesterday’s US data, the highlight was the ISM services index for December, which hit a 14-month high of 54.4 (vs. 52.2 expected). So reassuring investors that the economy had ended the year in a strong position, particularly after the ISM manufacturing index hit a 14-month low earlier in the week. Indeed, the details were very strong as well, as the new orders component hit a 15-month high of 57.9, and the employment component hit a 10-month high of 53.9.

Other indicators also suggested that the US labour market was still in decent shape. We had the ADP print ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report, which showed that private payrolls grew broadly as expected at +41k in December (vs. +50k expected). Then we had the JOLTS report for November, with layoffs down to a 6-month low of 1.687m, whilst the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their roles moved up to 2.0%. So overall, the print was seen as a sign of labour market strength, even as openings themselves dipped by more than expected to 7.146m (vs. 7.648m expected).

In the meantime, markets continued to face crosswinds from various geopolitical issues. One major development yesterday was that the US had seized a Russian-flagged ship in the Atlantic for violating US sanctions. Shortly afterwards, Defense Secretary Hegseth posted that “The blockade of sanctioned and illicit Venezuelan oil remains in FULL EFFECT — anywhere in the world.” It was also announced that another tanker had been seized in the Caribbean Sea. At the same time, US plans for Venezuelan crude continued to take shape, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying that the US plans to indefinitely control sales of Venezuelan oil. Brent crude fell -1.22% to $59.96/bbl, only a dollar above its post-2021 low reached in mid-December. Overnight it's back up around half a percent.

Yesterday’s oil decline supported sovereign bonds, with the 10yr Treasury yield (-2.4bps) down to 4.15%, although the 2yr yield (+0.8bps) held up as investors priced in a bit more Fed hawkishness given the US data. 10yr yields are down another -1.2bps this morning. 

In Europe, bonds were also boosted by the latest European inflation numbers. Those showed that Euro Area inflation fell to +2.0% as expected in December, whilst core CPI was down to +2.3% (vs. +2.4% expected). So that pushed back against residual fears about a hawkish ECB pivot this year and added to the sense that the ECB might cut next rather than hike. Yields on 10yr bunds (-3.0bps), OATs (-3.1bps) and BTPs (-1.9bps) all moved lower. Meanwhile, UK gilts saw a particularly big outperformance, with the 10yr yield down -6.5bps, whilst the 2yr yield fell to its lowest since August 2024, at 3.67%. 

Finishing up with another round of geopolitical news, Trump also posted fresh comments about NATO yesterday, saying that “We will always be there for NATO, even if they won’t be there for us”, which followed a statement from several European leaders on Tuesday defending Greenland’s sovereignty. In an interview with Fox News, Vice President JD Vance said Trump is willing to “go as far as he has to” on Greenland.  Elsewhere, the dispute between China and Japan continued to escalate, with China starting an anti-dumping probe into dichlorosilane, which is used to make chips. That comes on top of a previous announcement this week from China, which bans the export of dual-use items to Japan that could have military uses. All the headlines notwithstanding, gold prices (-0.85%) yesterday fell back for the first time this year, suggesting that investor fears are easing back a little on the geopolitical side.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the Euro Area unemployment rate and German factory orders for November, along with the US weekly initial jobless claims. Otherwise, the ECB will release their Consumer Expectations Survey for November.