Futures Rebound On Strong Earnings Even As Global Market Mood Remains Dismal

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by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Apr 16, 2024 - 01:16 PM

S&P futures traded modestly in the green, erasing earlier losses and signaling a recovery after the S&P 500 fell more than 1% in the past two sessions, following stronger than expected earnings from index heavyweight UnitedHealth Group which soared 6% after reporting first-quarter profit that beat Wall Street’s expectations and affirmed its outlook for the year, despite the costs associated with a cyberattack on one of its subsidiaries that has roiled the health-care industry; other reporters such as Bank of America and Morgan Stanley also gained. of 8:45am, S&P futures gained 0.3%, after trading down 0.2% earlier this morning; Nasdaq futures also reversed an earlier loss and traded about 0.2% higher. Meanwhile, loans continued their ascent, with 10Y yields rising as highas 4.65% before modestly reversing, while 2-year Treasuries approached 5%. The dollar advanced for a fifth day, its longest run since January.

In premarket trading, Tesla fell as much as 2.6% in premarket trading as two of the electric carmaker’s top executives left in the carmaker’s largest-ever round of job cuts. Morgan Stanley rose 3% in the premarket after reporting wealth management net revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Its equities trading revenue was also ahead of consensus. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • UnitedHealth Group rises 6% after reporting first-quarter profit that beat Wall Street’s expectations and affirmed its outlook for the year, despite the costs associated with a cyberattack on one of its subsidiaries that has roiled the health-care industry.
  • Hims & Hers declines 5% after Jefferies downgraded the telehealth firm to hold, saying expectations on the stock are now at a “more appropriate level.”
  • Intra-Cellular Therapies climbs 18% after posting positive top-line results from a late-stage trial of its investigative treatment for depression.
  • Live Nation drops 9% after Bloomberg reported that the Department of Justice was preparing to file an antitrust complaint against the company over its Ticketmaster business, citing three people familiar with the matter.
  • Macatawa Bank jumps 38% following a deal that will see Wintrust Financial acquire it for about $510.3m, or $14.85 a share, in an all-stock transaction.
  • Morgan Stanley rises 2% after posting a 1Q revenue beat.

Markets have slumped in recent days as economic data continues to underscores US economic strength, while conflict in the Mideast fans the risk of higher energy prices and inflation, frustrating hopes for imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. With earnings season underway, there’s growing concern that the mega-cap leaders will struggle to justify their steep valuations.  

“Markets are looking for an excuse to take a breather and the combination of rising geopolitical risk alongside inflation fear and Fed anxiety is providing some decent ground for that,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro research at Lombard Odier Asset Management.

As noted yesterday, traders are no longer fully pricing in a Fed rate cut before November, while UBS Group AG strategists warned there may be no pivot at all and that US policymakers will instead embark on a hiking cycle. Treasury 10-year yields have spiked more than 10 basis points to 4.65% since the start of the week. With stocks and bonds coming under pressure, the dollar pushed higher as investors piled into haven assets.

Recent data “has given the Fed pause for thought and the market has repriced quite significantly,” said Daniel Loughney, head of fixed income at Mediolanum International Funds. “We have a powerful dynamic whereby US growth and inflation dynamics are mingling with big-picture commodity and supply chain-related inflationary pressures.”

Meanwhile on the geopolitical front, top Israeli military officials have vowed to respond to Iran’s missile attack despite diplomatic calls for restraint.  

This year’s record rally has left markets especially vulnerable to a pullback, according to top Wall Street strategists. A survey from Bank of America Corp. found that investor allocation to equities is at the highest in over two years. Citigroup strategists counted $52 billion of long positions on the S&P 500, 88% of them loss-making. "Should the market turn negative, the move could be faster and larger due to the large, long positions already in the red," Citigroup strategist Chris Montagu wrote in a note.

Stocks outside the US were trading in the red, with equities in Europe tumbling 1% and Asian peers down 2%.

European stocks tumbled out of the fate, tracking losses in their Asian counterparts with the prospect of a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve, rising Middle East tensions and patchy Chinese economic data all playing their part. They have, however, since regained some losses. The Stoxx 600 is down 1.0%, after earlier sliding 1.4% and looking at its largest fall this year. All 20 sectors are in the red but basic resources are the worst performers after Chinese retail sales and industrial production rose less than expected in March. US equity futures are slightly lower.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks dropped by the most in eight months, as worries deepened that US monetary policy will remain tighter for longer and the latest slew of data from China failed to spark hopes of an economic recovery. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid more than 2%, the most since Aug. 2. Tech hardware stocks including chipmakers TSMC and Samsung were the biggest drags on the benchmark, which was poised for its fifth-straight daily loss, the worst losing streak since August.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.2% to its highest since November, adding to Monday’s post retail-sales gain. The greenback has also bulldozed its way through emerging-market currencies, weakening many through closely-watched levels that forced some officials to step in to stem the losses. The pound is flat after the UK unemployment rate rose unexpectedly. Asian currencies are in focus after China’s fixing surprise paved a way for the yuan to weaken to key 7.30 level, while USD/JPY continues to trend toward 155.

In rates, treasuries fell with US 10-year yields rising 4bps to 4.64% while the UK February jobs report sent 10-year yields to highest levels since November. Fed Chair Powell is slated to participate in a moderated discussion with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada at 1:15pm New York time, with no text expected. Treasury coupon sales this week include $13b 20-year bond reopening Wednesday and $23b 5-year TIPS new issue Thursday

In commodities, oil prices erased an earlier gain with WTI crude oil futures down ~0.5%, extending retreat from last week’s highs reached amid escalation of Middle East conflict; Israel has said it will respond to Iran’s weekend attack. Spot gold falls 0.5% to $2,370/oz.

US economic data slate includes March housing starts/building permits, April NY Fed services business activity (8:30am) and March industrial production (9:15am). Fed speakers include Jefferson (9am), Williams (12:30pm), Barkin (1pm), Powell (1:15pm) and Collins (4:30pm)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,100.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.4% to 498.77
  • MXAP down 2.0% to 169.96
  • MXAPJ down 2.0% to 518.74
  • Nikkei down 1.9% to 38,471.20
  • Topix down 2.0% to 2,697.11
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.1% to 16,248.97
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.6% to 3,007.07
  • Sensex down 0.7% to 72,898.76
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.8% to 7,612.49
  • Kospi down 2.3% to 2,609.63
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.44%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0614
  • Brent Futures up 0.2% to $90.26/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $2,371.27
  • US Dollar Index up 0.12% to 106.33

Top Overnight News

  • China’s March economic data disappoints, including retail sales (+3.1% Y/Y vs. the Street +4.8%) and industrial production (+4.5% Y/Y vs. the Street +6%), although GDP for Q1 ran ahead of expectations. RTRS 
  • China’s President Xi Jinping met German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Beijing on Tuesday, saying China’s exports were easing global inflation and the clean energy transition at a time of tension with the EU over trade and the war in Ukraine. FT
  • UK wage growth was higher than expected in the three months to February, despite a weaker jobs market in which unemployment edged up, vacancies fell and more people chose not to work or look for work. The Office for National Statistics said average earnings, including bonuses, were 5.6% higher over the period than a year earlier, the same annual growth rate as in the three months to January. Analysts had expected annual growth to slow to 5.5%. FT
  • Israel’s response will “send a message”, but not cause casualties (options include hitting a facility in Tehran or launching a cyberattack). WaPo
  • Speaker Johnson will put four separate bills on the House floor this week (funding for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and a ban of TikTok) and a draft of the legislation largely mirrors what was already passed in the Senate. NYT
  • UBS’s capital needs may rise by around $20 billion to reach new requirements the government is proposing in the wake of Credit Suisse’s collapse. BBG
  • International Paper agreed to buy UK rival DS Smith for £5.8 billion, creating a global leader in packaging. BBG
  • The Fed’s Mary Daly stressed there’s no urgency for rate cuts given “remarkable” US growth, a resilient labor market and still-elevated inflation. The “worst thing” the Fed can do is move unnecessarily fast, she said. Jerome Powell and Tiff Macklem speak on the North American outlook later. BBG
  • MSFT will invest $1.5B in the UAE AI firm G42, the latest example of the software giant providing capital throughout the AI industry. WSJ

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were lower across the board with global risk appetite sapped by geopolitical concerns related to a potential 'imminent' response by Israel against Iran, while markets also digested mixed key releases from China. ASX 200 retreated with selling across all sectors and consumer discretionary front-running the declines. Nikkei 225 was among the worst hit and fell beneath the 38,500 level with the index shedding over 800 points. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the downbeat mood despite better-than-expected Chinese GDP for Q1 which was negated by disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales data, while property sector woes persisted after home prices further deteriorated and with developer Times China (1233 HK) facing a winding-up petition filed by Hang Seng Bank.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese President Xi told German Chancellor Scholz during their meeting in Beijing that bilateral ties will continue to develop as long as both sides respect each other and seek common ground, while he added that they must view and develop bilateral relations in an all-round way from a long-term and strategic perspective.
  • China's stats bureau said economic conditions are still not stable and the external environment is complex, while it added that uncertainty is increasing and that consumer inflation will recover mildly. China's stats bureau also stated that China's property market is still in the middle of adjustments.
  • Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said won't comment on forex levels or currency intervention and reiterated that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals, while he added that excessive FX volatility is undesirable and is prepared to take all measures on FX.
  • Fitch revises outlook for Chinese state banks to Negative from Stable; affirms ratings

European bourses, Stoxx600 (-1.4%), are entirely in the red, continuing the price action seen in Wall St. from the prior session and following a negative handover from APAC trade as geopols remain in focus and China data was mixed. European sectors are lower; Telecoms was initially propped by post-earning strength in Ericsson (+3.5%), though this ultimately faded. Basic Resources underperforms, given weakness in metals prices. For Luxury names, LVMH due to report after the European close. US equity futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.1%, RTY -0.3%) are lower, albeit to a lesser magnitude than European counterparts. A busy earnings slate will provide direction for markets today; United Health, UAL, Bank of America & Morgan Stanley are all due.

Top European News

  • ECB's Rehn says future rate decisions will ensure that policy rates will remain sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary. If June assessment confirms inflation convergence towards target, could lower rates. Cut assumes there will be no further setbacks in geopolitics or energy prices. At the moment, there is a divergence between the US and European economy; naturally may take different kinds of decision in the coming period; ECB does not pre-commit to any rate path.
  • BoE's incoming Deputy Governor Lombardelli says decline in inflation is likely to be bumpy; sees two-sided risks. Evidence suggests that Brexit has had a negative economic impact via investment and trade. Inflation may rove more persistent than expected. Wage growth is slowing but remains high. Joins the MPC on July 1st, replacing Broadbent.
  • EU leaders are set to revive their capital markets union plan in search for defence funding, according to FT.
  • Morgan Stanley expects the ECB to deliver 75bps interest rate cuts in 2024 (prev. 100bps expected)
  • Deutsche Bank expects ECB to deliver 75bps of interest rate cuts in 2024 (prev. forecast 125bps)


  • USD is firmer vs. all peers as the hawkish Fed repricing/strong US data continues to provide support. DXY has been as high as 106.43 with the next target via the 2nd Nov'23 peak at 106.51.
  • EUR/USD clinging onto 1.06 status after printing a 1.0603 low. In a week lacking in key EZ data and ECB speakers continuing to talk up a June cut, it is not obvious to see how price action can reverse.
  • GBP is flat vs. the USD and holding up better-than-peers with this morning's wage metrics potentially overshadowing a larger-than-expected increase in the unemployment rate. 1.2409 is the base for now.
  • 154.60 is the high watermark for the USD/JPY as the Fed/BoJ divergence play remains the key guiding force. 155 is the perceived line in the sand for the MoF and speculation continues to mount over an intervention by Tokyo.
  • The current risk environment is continuing to act as a drag for the antipodes. AUD/USD is managing to hold above the 0.64 mark with not too much follow-through at the time from Chinese data.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1028 vs exp. 7.2475 (prev. 7.0979).
  • South Korean FX authority says closely monitoring FX market with caution on currency movement, supply and demand; excessive herd-like behaviour in FX market is undesirable.

Fixed Income

  • USTs are contained in a narrow nine tick band that is entirely within Monday's 107-18 to 108-22 parameters. Newsflow limited thus far as we await Israel's response to Iran, though the docket ahead is filled with several Fed speakers.
  • Bunds have been directionally in-fitting with USTs. Following the German ZEW data, Bunds were pressured by around 15 ticks to a new 131.55 session low, taking it below Monday's 131.58 base.
  • Gilts gapped lower by 18 ticks at the open following the latest labour/wage data, with focus on the hotter wage components; benchmark briefly pared as the internals were digested before ZEW hit and pressured the space again. Overall, Gilts continued to drift to a 96.44 base which marks a contract low and has seen the 10yr yield peak at 2.78%.
  • UK sells GBP 1.5bln 0.75% 2033 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.4% (prev. 2.97x) and real yield 0.440% (prev. 0.634%)


  • Crude is subdued and off best levels, but still underpinned by geopolitical risks after reports of a potential 'imminent' response by Israel against Iran; Brent June trades between USD 89.82-90.84/bbl range.
  • Softer trade across precious metals amid a lack of retaliation by Israel thus far whilst the Dollar also edges higher; XAU sits in a USD 2,363-92/oz range.
  • Base metals are lower across the board amid the risk aversion and stronger Dollar. Chinese data overnight was mixed in which Chinese GDP for Q1 topped expectations, but was negated by disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales data.
  • El Nino weather event has ended, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • "Israel sent a message to the countries of the region that responding to the Iranian attack will not endanger the stability of these countries", according to Sky News Arabia.
  • The Israeli war cabinet is weighing a response to the recent Iran attacks; and is to meet again on Tuesday for a third straight day, via the FT
  • Iran's Foreign Minister said in a call with China's Foreign Minister that Iran is willing to exercise restraint and has no intention of further escalating the situation, according to Chinese state media.
  • US officials expect a possible Israeli response to Iran’s attack over the weekend to be limited in scope and most likely involve strikes against Iranian military forces and Iranian-backed proxies outside Iran, according to four US officials cited by NBC News.
  • Iraqi PM confirmed Iraq's interest in obtaining expertise and arms from the US, as well as keenness on security partnership during a meeting with US Defense Secretary Austin, according to Reuters.
  • Saudi Arabia acknowledged that it helped defend Israel against Iran whereby Saudi Arabia's royal family posted on its website about the country's role in defending Israel against the Iranian barrage, according to Jerusalem Post.

Geopolitics: Other

  • US judges North Korea to have the capability to manufacture biological weapons through genetically modified weapons, according to Yonhap.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: March Housing Starts 1.321m, est. 1.49m, prior 1.52m
  • 08:30: March Housing Starts -14.7% MoM, est. -2.4%, prior 10.7%
  • 08:30: March Building Permits 1.458m, est. 1.51m, prior 1.52m, revised 1.52m
  • 08:30: March Building Permits -4.3%MoM, est. -0.9%, prior 1.9%, revised 2.4%
  • 09:15: March Capacity Utilization, est. 78.5%, prior 78.3%
  • 09:15: March Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.2%, prior 0.8%
  • 09:15: March Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.1%

Central Banks

  • 09:00: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks at Monetary Policy Forum
  • 12:30: Fed’s Williams Moderates Event w/ François Villeroy de Galhau
  • 13:00: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Economic Outlook
  • 13:15: Fed’s Powell Participates in Moderated Q&A
  • 16:30: Fed’s Collins Gives Speech on Economy

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I picked an eventful couple of weeks in markets to be on holidays. The highlights of my trip were 1) accidentally mixing up my ski pass with one of my twins (he has the same name as me) which nearly caused us both to be booted off the slopes after the cameras picked up a six-year old on a lift with a 49-year old’s pass; 2) it going from freezing to boiling on the same day; 3) a Saharan dust storm covering the skies and slopes with orange sand; and 4) all three kids passing the “first star” stage at ski school albeit via two not passing initially and me having to pay for a couple of extra private lessons to ensure parity and less arguments and fighting within the family. In fact it's lovely to be back at work and to leave sibling rivalry behind me for a bit.

That said, my first 24 hours back have been far from quiet, with the S&P posting its weakest 2-day run since the regional banking stress last March (-1.20% yesterday after -1.46% on Friday). Equities had initially opened higher in the absence of any immediate escalation in the Middle East, but sentiment turned amid renewed concerns over Israel’s response to Iran’s weekend attack, with the rise in rates also weighing. The sell-off in sovereign bonds received extra momentum from a strong US retail sales print, which took the 10yr Treasury yields (+8.0bps) to their highest level in five months at 4.60%, despite a decent rally later in the US session from a 4.66% peak.

By contrast, when I left for my hols at Easter 10yr US yields were 4.20%. In fact, since 2007 they’ve only been higher than the current level for around 6-weeks straddling October last year. Alongside this we’ve moved from pricing in 2.9 Fed hikes this year just before Easter to only 1.75 as I type this morning. Powell speaks today so we'll see if he changes anything here.

I continue to believe that it’s going to be incredibly difficult to smoothly land this US economic cycle given we’ve moved from the biggest increase in money supply since WWII to the biggest contraction since the 1930. All with the associated lags. The least likely scenario was always likely to be US growth and inflation moving to trend with anything close to the 6.7 Fed cuts priced in at one point in January. Last year I believed the recession was the most likely outcome but as I said at the start of this year when we changed our view, I think I underestimated the true scale of the stock of stimulus/money still in the system even when the flow turned negative with the tightening of policy. Looser financial conditions since October have exaggerated this and contributed to a boost in activity, inflation and markets this year.

So it's possible that stimulus/liquidity is still working its way through the system and you can see that with Peter Sidorov’s recent work on credit conditions here and here. Peter’s work suggests that the US has benefited from more muted transmission of rate hikes but that there could still be an air pocket of US liquidity later in the year when we return nearer to the long-term money supply trend and finally remove the excesses created. If that’s correct then maybe cutting rates in preparation of that is actually the correct thing to do. However faced with inflation that is currently accelerating that would be very very difficult for the Fed to communicate and be comfortable doing. The lag of policy is incredibly difficult to assess in real time. So the most likely scenario is that rate cuts are delayed ( DB only have one cut in December for 2024 now. See here for more) but that in itself creates risks that rates will be left restrictive at the point where the boost from the earlier liquidity overhang runs out.

So a textbook perfect soft landing will still be very difficult to achieve in my opinion. Obviously a no landing but with decent economic growth could be fine for equities while it lasts so the above isn't meant to sound near-term negative but simply to outline the uncertainties that I still think are very large.

The added complication at the moment is the heightened uncertainty in the Middle East. This dominated the wires yesterday, as we saw multiple countries warn Israel against an escalation. For instance, French President Macron said that “We’re going to do everything we can to avoid flare-ups, and try to convince Israel that we shouldn’t respond by escalating, but rather by isolating Iran”. Similarly, UK Foreign Secretary Cameron said that “We’re saying very strongly that we don’t support a retaliatory strike.” And US President Biden said the US “is committed to Israel’s security” and “to a ceasefire that will bring the hostages home and prevent the conflict from spreading beyond what it already has”. Nevertheless, market pricing of geopolitical risk premium began to rise again following an Axios report that Israel’s defence minister Yoav Gallant told US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin that Israel couldn’t allow ballistic missiles to be launched against it without a response. Later on, CNN reported that Israel’s war cabinet reviewed military plans for a potential response in a meeting on Monday, without clarity on whether a decision had been taken. Oil prices followed the shifting geopolitical sentiment, with Brent crude initially falling more than 1% to below $89/bbl intra-day, but rising to back above $90 by the close, and trading at $90.56 as I type.

Risk assets came under increased pressure following the Axios report, with the S&P 500 down -1.20% by the close. The heightened sense of alert saw the VIX index of volatility spike by another +1.9pts to 19.2, seeing its sharpest two-day rise since the regional banking stress last March. In Israel itself, equities posted further declines, with the TA-35 index down -1.23%, following a modest +0.27% gain on Sunday. By contrast, gold benefited in the risk-off mood (+0.55%), closing at a new record high of $2,357/oz.

The equity decline was led by tech stocks, with the NASDAQ down -1.79% and the Magnificent 7 (-2.44%) seeing its worst day since January. Tesla (-5.59%) extended its YTD decline to -35% amid news that it will cut over 10% of its workforce. But the broad turn in sentiment also saw the three largest mega caps – Microsoft (-1.96%), Apple (-2.19%) and Nvidia (-2.48%) – all post sizeable declines. Amid the outperformers, Goldman Sachs gained +2.92% after its earnings beat expectations. European markets had closed before the worst of the equity sell off, with the STOXX 600 (+0.13%) a little higher on the day. There was a divergence between the UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.38%), and other indices including Germany’s DAX (+0.54%) and France’s CAC 40 (+0.43%). Euro Stoxx futures are -1.40% this morning as I type with S&P 500 (-0.28%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.26%) futures lower but not accelerating the losses too much.

Stocks had started Monday on the front foot, in part thanks to a strong US retail sales print that offered a fresh reminder about the strength of the US consumer. It showed retail sales were up +0.7% in March (vs. +0.4% expected), and the previous month was also revised up three-tenths. This also revived fears about a “no landing” though, leading investors to dial back the chances of rate cuts this year. The amount of cuts priced by the Fed’s December meeting came down by -1.8bps to 45bps, and it had moved as low as 37bps intra-day prior to the souring of the geopolitical sentiment.

The retail sales data exacerbated the bond selloff, and the 10yr Treasury yield (+8.0bps) closed at 4.60%, its highest level since November and is further +1bps higher overnight. At the front end, the 2yr yield was up +2.3bps to 4.92%, having been as high as 4.99% at its intraday peak. There were also fresh signs of concern about inflation, with the 2yr US inflation swap (+1.8bps) up to a one-year high of 2.65%.

This morning in Asia equity markets are extending declines. The KOSPI (-2.45%), Nikkei (-2.11%), S&P/ASX 200 (-2.12%) and the Hang Seng (-1.87%) are all seeing major losses. Chinese stocks are also slipping with the CSI (-1.02%) and the Shanghai Composite (-1.42%) lower after some mixed data.

The Chinese economy did make a stronger than expected start to the year, offering some relief to officials after they've unveiled a raft of fiscal and monetary policy measures to boost the economy. Q1 GDP grew at a +5.3% annual pace, beating analysts’ forecasts of +4.8% and relative to a +5.2% expansion in the previous quarter. On a quarter-by-quarter basis, GDP grew +1.6% in the first quarter (v/s +1.5% expected) following an upwardly revised growth of +1.2% in the prior quarter. However, industrial output for March grew +4.5% y/y missing Bloomberg expectations for a +6.0% increase while retail sales advanced +3.1% y/y, less than market expectations for +4.8% growth. C hinese house prices continued to fall in March, dropping - 2.7% from a year earlier and worse than a -1.9% drop in February, indicating that the nation’s property market is struggling to find a bottom. In addition, the PBoC unexpectedly weakened its yuan defense as it cut the yuan’s fixing by 49 pips to 7.1028 per dollar, its weakest level since March this year amid dollar strength.

In FX, the Japanese yen remains under pressure as it fell to its weakest level since June 1990 yesterday, crossing the 154 mark against the dollar despite repeated warnings from the government over potential currency market intervention. It's stable overnight however.

Looking back now at yesterday’s other data from the US, the Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -14.3 (vs. -5.2 expected), and there was also an upward move in the prices paid indicator, which rose to an 11-month high of 33.7. Otherwise, the NAHB’s housing market index remained at 51 in April, in line with expectations.

To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, the Fed’s Williams and Barkin, BoE Governor Bailey, the ECB’s Rehn, Villeroy and Vujcic, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem. Data releases include US industrial production, capacity utilisation, housing starts and building permits for March, Canada’s CPI for March, UK labour market data for March, and the German ZEW survey for April. Today’s earnings releases include Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. Finally, the IMF will be releasing their latest World Economic Outlook.