Futures Rise, US Stocks Set For New Record As Hopes For Iran Peace Deal Persist Despite Bombing

US futures are higher again, led by tech and small caps. As of 7:30am, S&P 500 futures rose 0.7%, signaling US stocks are set for another record high when the market reopens after Memorial Day weekend. Nasdaq 100 contracts, supercharged by the artificial intelligence trade, gained more than 1% as Magnificent Seven big tech shares rallied in premarket trading. In premarket trading, all Mag 7 are higher led by NVDA (+0.8%), TSLA (+0.8%) and GOOG/L (+0.7%). 10-year Treasury yields fell six basis points and the dollar was steady after dropping against major peers in the previous session. Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 index slipped, handing back some of Monday’s 1% advance. Brent trading below $100 on hopes of deescalation between Iran and the US. Yet even though we have seen a barrage of optimistic media reports regarding progress on the US-Iran negotiation; on Monday night the US conducted "defensive" strikes on Iranian military targets, which the Iranian foreign ministry moments ago condemned as ceasefire violations. Gold and silver are both lower this morning, falling 1.0% and 2.5%, respectively; Ags are mostly lower. Today's economic data slate includes the April Chicago Fed national activity index and May Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am), March FHFA house price index, S&P Cotality home prices and FHFA 1Q house price purchase index (9am), May consumer confidence (10am) and May Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (10:30am).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Nvidia +1.2%, Tesla +1%, Apple +0.6%, Amazon +0.4%, Alphabet +0.2%, Microsoft +0.2%, Meta Platforms +0.1%)

Amentum Holdings Inc. shares (AMTM) gain 0.4% after BNP Paribas initiated coverage of the engineering firm with a recommendation of underperform as it sees growth lagging peers.
AutoZone shares (AZO) fall 5.6% after it reported net sales for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp. shares (BAH) are up 1.4% after Stifel upgraded the company to buy from hold.
Bridgebio Pharma shares (BBIO) dip 0.8% after Raymond James downgraded the drugmaker to market perform from outperform, citing near-term headwinds.
Circle Internet Group Inc. shares (CRCL) rise 0.6% after it was initiated at KeyBanc Capital Markets with a recommendation of sector weight as it sees the stablecoin issuer being a leader in the sector, however dealing with lower margins.
Okta Inc. shares (OKTA) are up 2.3% after Arete upgraded the software company by two notches, to buy from sell.
Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PBA) rises 0.9% after it was upgraded to buy from hold at TD Cowen on sector growth.
Shares in rocket and satellite companies (RDW +16%, MDA +17%, ASTS +7%) are rallying, set to extend recent gains since SpaceX filed publicly for what stands to be the largest-ever initial public offering.
Shares in semiconductor companies with exposure to Asia (WOLF +8.5%, SMTC +4%) are rallying on optimism over a potential breakthrough in technology by Huawei.

Shares in rocket and satellite companies rallied in US premarket trading Tuesday, extending recent gains. The sector has advanced since SpaceX filed publicly for what stands to be the largest-ever initial public offering. Among the movers, Redwire Corp. climbed 15%, MDA Space Ltd. jumped 13% and Firefly Aerospace Inc. rose 11%.

Investors are largely shrugging off a modest rebound in crude prices after the US hit Iranian ships and missile launch sites, and Iran’s Tasnim news agency said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had fired at a US F-35 fighter jet. Israel also threatened to intensify its strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon. While the news flow clouds prospects of a swift resumption in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, investors appear optimistic that peace talks can still progress.

US authorities have described their strikes as defensive in nature, following President Donald Trump’s comment on Monday that talks were “proceeding nicely.” And despite Tuesday’s increase, oil prices are on track for a drop in May after rising in the previous two months.

"The main driver of the mood music is the story in Iran,” Mizuho Bank Ltd. strategist Jordan Rochester said. Despite the strikes and belligerent rhetoric from Iran, “both sides are closer than they have been to date to getting something over the line. The US has made it clear it does not want the kinetic action to re-start,” he said.

With the Middle East de-escalation lifting equity sentiment, “one might have expected to see the dollar weaker across the board – but it has been holding up quite well,” Turner wrote. “We suspect this is being driven by the view that the Federal Reserve is about to turn less dovish.”

As Big Tech raises hundreds of billions of dollars to fund AI investment, Wall Street banks are increasingly finding they have to trade more credit derivatives to keep doing business with the hyperscalers.

JPMorgan strategists said low-volatility stocks look attractive after a selloff triggered by rising bond yields, regardless of where yields go from here. Their US basket includes the likes of P&G, Coca-Cola, J&J and American Electric Power. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said stock markets can handle higher bond yields as long as strong economic growth is the main catalyst, rather than a more aggressive central bank stance.

Meanwhile, the SEC has given the go-ahead for Nasdaq to list index options based on the price of Bitcoin, the latest sign that Wall Street is becoming more tightly integrated with the world of digital assets. South Korea — the world’s best-performing yet most volatile market — is set to debut its first ever single-stock leveraged ETFs this week, tools that have the potential to amplify gains and losses. Analysts expect strong demand from the nation’s more than 14 million retail investors.

Investors are also closely watching the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, with expectations growing that the central bank will need to keep policy tight after the oil-price jump spurred the biggest inflation surge since 2023. A number of officials have abandoned their easing bias, while Trump — who has repeatedly called interest-rate cuts — said on Friday he wanted new Chair Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed independently.

An inflation gauge due later this week is expected to show annual price growth ticking up further in April, potentially reinforcing expectations that policy will stay tight. Chris Turner at ING Bank NV also highlighted the possibility of a strong jobs print later Tuesday, following last week’s robust reading. BlackRock’s Navin Saigal says the Fed may have enough reason to justify a rate cut rather than a hike under new chairman Kevin Warsh. The swaps market is not convinced, pricing in a better than 80% chance of a 25-bpt hike by the end of the year.

Prints this week should shed light on how American businesses are dealing with unresolved questions around tariff refunds. AutoZone reports before the open on Tuesday, followed a day later by HP, and Costco on Thursday.

This week is a big one for economic data, which according to Bloomberg Economics’ Anna Wong “speak directly to the two questions markets care about: whether US consumers are buckling under high gasoline prices, and whether inflation is too sticky for the Fed’s comfort.”
At 10 a.m. ET, she expects confirmation of a modest erosion of consumer confidence in May, followed on Thursday by a still-hot reading for April of the PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 index slipped 0.2%, handing back some of Monday’s 1% advance, as oil prices climbed, fueling concerns that a resolution to the Iran war remains out of reach. Auto and technology stocks underperformed, while the mining sector led gains. Here are some of the biggest movers Tuesday:

Kingfisher shares roe as much as 8.3%, briefly hitting a two-month high, after the DIY-retailer reported first-quarter sales and reiterated its guidance, which analysts said is providing some reassurance following recent pressure on the stock.
Atalaya rose as much as 7.2% after the miner’s earnings significantly beat consensus forecasts.
Industrie De Nora shares rose as much as 11%, briefly hitting their highest level since January, after the maker of industrial electronic equipment said it has agreed to buy BW Water, which Jefferies said will help increase exposure to high-growth markets.
CVS Group shares advanced as much as 5.8%, the most since April 8, after the UK veterinary services provider launched a £50 million share buyback program.
Ferrari shares fell as much as 7.8% in Milan, the most in more than seven months, after analysts criticized the design of the supercar maker’s first fully electric model, priced at €550,000.
Vodafone shares fell as much as 4.9% after being downgraded to underperform by Bank of America.
Melrose shares fell as much as 7.3%, most since Feb. 27, after authorities ordered precautionary evacuations around the company’s GKN Aerospace facility in California following a thermal issue with a storage tank.

Asian shares are headed for a fourth straight session of gains, as optimism around artificial intelligence outweighed lingering unease over US-Iran talks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%, with SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and SoftBank among the biggest boosts. South Korea’s Kospi climbed 2.6% to a record, while Hong Kong shares also rose as the markets reopened after Monday’s holiday. Tech hardware stocks have been driving gains in the region despite concerns over elevated valuations and sustainability of hyperscaler spending. The prospect for a negative economic impact from the Iran war has also been shrugged off, even with a rebound in oil prices after fresh US military strikes. This week, investors will be watching rate decisions in South Korea and New Zealand to gauge the impact of higher fuel prices on inflation. Other key events include earnings from Chinese EV smartphone and EV maker Xiaomi due later Tuesday.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar index is higher by 0.1% with gains in the greenback most pronounced against the kiwi ahead of Wednesday’s RBNZ rate decision.

In rates, Treasuries hold solid gains as US trading resumes after Monday’s holiday, after yields gapped lower at the Asia open on mounting optimism about an end to the US war on Iran. Lower energy prices relative to Friday’s close have sent US yields lower across the curve with the 10-year down 5bps; US yields are near session lows are as much as 9bp richer on the day intermediate sector as swaps price in less chance of a Fed rate hike by mid-2027 (Fed-dated OIS contracts price in around 19bp of tightening by the end of this year vs about 27bp at Friday’s close, and a policy-rate peak of around 3.93% by the middle of next year vs 4% Friday). US yields are 6bp to 9bp lower across a steeper curve, with 5s30s spread about 2bp wider on the day; 10-year near 4.48% is richest since May 14. Front-end and belly sectors have support from fading Fed rate-hike expectations as oil prices fall; WTI crude futures remain about 4.5% lower after rebounding slightly following fresh US military strikes in Iran. Treasury auction cycle begins with $69 billion 2-year note at 1pm New York time, followed by $70 billion 5-year and $44 billion 7-year notes Wednesday and Thursday. WI 2-year yield near 4.055% is about 24bp cheaper than last month’s auction, which tailed by just 0.1bp. IG dollar issuance slate includes several offerings so far. Dealer forecasts are for about $30 billion during the holiday-shortened week. Focal points of US session include consumer confidence gauge and 2-year note auction.

In commodities, brent crude futures are up 3.7% on the session but down almost 4% on a two day basis, trading just below the $100/bbl level. Monday’s lack of settlement for WTI explains the current intraday divergence between the two benchmarks with the WTI July contract shedding 3.9%.

Today's economic data slate includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), April Chicago Fed national activity index and May Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am), March FHFA house price index, S&P Cotality home prices and FHFA 1Q house price purchase index (9am), May consumer confidence (10am) and May Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (10:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Kashkari at 8:20pm, speaking at a Bank of Japan conference

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

US and Israeli jets struck Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and other targets, hours after Donald Trump said talks with Tehran on an interim deal were progressing. Israel vowed more strikes on Hezbollah and Iran demanded any deal to reopen the strait include a halt to fighting in Lebanon.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov advised Marco Rubio to evacuate American citizens and diplomats from Kyiv. He warned that the Kremlin plans to continue heavy strikes on the Ukrainian capital. BBG
Huawei Technologies said on Monday it will make industry-leading semiconductors using a new technology in five years, underscoring Beijing's efforts to neutralize U.S. sanctions that have made it hard for China to build cutting-edge chips. RTRS
Workers’ pay packets are shrinking in relation to prices in a growing number of rich countries as the energy shock unleashed by the Iran war chokes off a nascent recovery in real wages. FT
The ECB should raise interest rates in June, even if ongoing peace talks with Iran yield a deal, as the conflict has been far longer than projected and high energy prices are spilling into the broader economy. RTRS
China let the interest rate on a one-year policy loan to banks decline to a record low, according to people familiar with the matter, a sign Beijing is stepping up efforts to support an economy that’s losing momentum. BBG
Japan's core inflation as measured by a new central bank gauge accelerated in April ‌and blew past its 2% target, data showed on Tuesday, helping make the case for an interest rate hike as soon as next month. BBG
ECB’s chief economist sees no need to correct markets from anticipating a rate hike next month. Nikkei
NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani is set to unveil a plan today to exempt some distressed rent-stabilized landlords. It would allow eligible owners to impose a one-time rent increase on certain vacant units. WSJ
Hedge funds and mutual funds each carry above-average equity market exposures. Hedge funds and mutual funds initially reduced exposure to US equities at the onset of geopolitical tensions in March but hedge funds have since lifted net leverage to the 85th percentile relative to the last five years. Although mutual funds lifted cash allocations from a record low of 1.1% at the start of 2026 to 1.4% at the start of April, cash balances as a share of assets still remain extremely low relative to history. GIR

Iran Conflict News

Over the weekend, US President Trump posted that an agreement has largely been negotiated, subject to finalisation between the US, Iran and various Middle Eastern countries, while the final aspects and details of the deal were being discussed, and will be announced shortly. He followed up by stating that negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, while he informed representatives not to rush into a deal and that time is on their side.
Reuters reported that the proposed framework is broken into three stages: 1) formally ending the war, 2) reopening the Strait of Hormuz and 3) opening an extendable 30-day window for broader negotiations on nuclear issues and sanctions relief. Axios further reported, citing a US official, that an agreement would involve a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the Strait of Hormuz would be opened, Iran would be able to freely sell oil, and negotiations would be held on curbing Iran's nuclear programme.
However, a US senior official told Axios that the White House doesn’t expect an agreement to end the war with Iran on Sunday and believes it could take several days for the deal’s approval by Iran’s leadership.
Elsewhere, Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi travelled to Doha for talks with Qatar's PM.
US Central Command spokesperson said US forces conducted self-defence strikes in southern Iran on Monday, in which US forces hit targets, including missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines. Furthermore, CENTCOM said it will defend troops while maintaining the ceasefire restraint and stated that strikes have concluded for now.
Explosions were reported in Iran's Bandar Abbas city, with the cause initially unknown, while similar sounds were also heard in the Persian Gulf, around Sirik and Jask. A Mehr News Agency reporter stated shortly after that the situation in the city was normal and completely under control, with no reason for any concern for the people of Bandar Abbas. However, N12 reporter Nitzan Shapira posted on Telegram that unofficial channels identified with the IRGC said fighter jets attacked two boats in the port of Bandar Abbas and that four people were killed. Furthermore, Iranian media reported the killing of a number of Iranians as a result of the American-Israeli attacks on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Asharq.
US President Trump posted "The Enriched Uranium (Nuclear Dust!) will either be immediately turned over to the United States to be brought home and destroyed or, preferably, in conjunction and coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, destroyed in place or, at another acceptable location, with the Atomic Energy Commission, or its equivalent, being witness to this process and event."
US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran negotiations will take a few days and that President Trump said he will make a good deal or no deal, while Rubio added that there were some talks going on in Qatar and thinks there is a lot of talking back and forth going on about specific language in the initial document. Rubio commented that negotiating the language of the deal with Iran could take a few days, and the Strait of Hormuz is going to be opened one way or the other.
US Secretary of State Rubio said US strikes on Iran do not preclude a diplomatic deal and that an Iran deal is possible within days, while Al Jazeera reported that the US strike on Iran's Bandar Abbas is a 'small hurdle' but unlikely to derail peace talks.
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said America will no longer have a safe haven in the Middle East; "the region will no longer serve as shields for American bases." He further said the clock cannot be turned back and the "shaky Zionist regime will move closer to the end of its ominous existence."
Iran's IRGC said Iran has the right to respond to respond to any US ceasefire breach. They have identified hostile aircrafts entering Iran's airspace in the Gulf region and have shot down one MQ-9 drone.
IRIB News said the claims by Al Arabiya regarding the 14-point MOU between the US and Iran are false and baseless.
Iran's Supreme Leader issued directives on officials' war duties, including managing wartime economy and for officials to seek reparations from enemies, while it was also stated that officials are to use the Hormuz Strait as leverage.
Iranian official source said Tehran warned Washington that any Israeli attacks on Beirut or the southern suburbs would seriously jeopardise ongoing efforts to end the war, and could derail the diplomatic track altogether, according to journalist Hashem.
Iranian National Security Committee Chairman said if the US side takes confidence-building measures at the implementation level and we see tangible results, this could be the basis for further steps. He added that Iran will not compromise on national interests.
IRGC senior spokesperson said, "If we are attacked, our attacks will be more intense, heavier and stronger", according to IRIB News citing an Al Jazeera interview. The report added that "The response to any new aggression will be different from what it has been before."
Israeli Broadcasting Authority said the Israeli army has begun mobilising its soldiers with the aim of intensifying its operations in Lebanon, according to Al Jazeera.
Israeli army intensified strikes in southern Lebanon on Monday, as Israeli PM Netanyahu said he had ordered the military to escalate its offensive in Lebanon in an effort to "crush" Hezbollah, according to CBS News and AFP.
Israeli warplanes conducted airstrikes on the town of Al-Duweir in the Nabatiyeh district, southern Lebanon, according to Al Mayadeen.
Hezbollah said it targeted Israeli forces at the headquarters of the 300th Brigade in Shumera.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed as the recent optimism regarding a nearing US-Iran agreement was clouded by reports that the US launched 'self-defence' strikes in southern Iran against missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to lay mines, although the market reaction to the renewed attack was limited, with some reports downplaying the likelihood that it could derail peace talks. ASX 200 was subdued with the index led lower by utilities and energy, but with the downside limited amid a lack of data releases and following the mixed geopolitical signals. Nikkei 225 pulled back after printing a fresh record high and briefly returned to beneath the 65,000 level amid profit taking and as participants reflected on the latest geopolitical headlines, while there were comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Himino that they will continue to raise the policy rate, adjust the degree of monetary accommodation according to economic activity, prices and financial conditions. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the mainland subdued alongside the geopolitical uncertainty, while the Hong Kong benchmark outperformed on return from the holiday closure as tech strength helped participants shrug off China's announcement late last week regarding a cross-border investment crackdown.

Top Asian News

Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said authorities are watching Middle East developments carefully and will act in a timely manner to cushion the impact on households.
Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Ozaki said they are aware of reports regarding consumption tax, but nothing decided yet and will refrain from prejudging.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) trade mixed. Risk sentiment has softened after reports overnight that the US conducted strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran overnight, with US CENTCOM citing self-defence. To add, US Secretary of State Rubio tempered expectations, saying a deal could take a few days and warned that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened "one way or the other." Sectors lack a clear directional bias. Basic Resources (+1.2%) is the clear sector outperformer, helped by UK miners (Glencore, Rio Tinto). To the downside lies Technology (-1.2%) and Autos (-1.7%).

Top European News

EU Commissioner for Startups Research and Innovation said the UK could join a EUR 4bln EU startup fund this year, according to FT.

G10s are broadly lower against the Buck as thin risk-on holiday trade on Monday was partially pared as US CENTCOM conducted "self-defence" strikes in Iran and Iran issued unconstructive rhetoric regarding the strikes.
DXY trades modestly higher, returning to Monday’s session highs amid the aforementioned geopolitics and a general rebound in crude benchmarks. Dollar saw upside this morning on rare remarks from Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, suggesting “America will no longer have a safe haven in the Middle East…. the region will no longer serve as shields for American bases". USD strength seen on these remarks was pared just above Monday's session highs of 99.12. DXY should remain supported by its 50DMA at 98.93, as it was on Monday, with resistance at 99.50.
Kiwi is the worst G10 performer, heading into the RBNZ meeting and OCR projections on Wednesday, with Antipodeans generally underperforming amidst the modestly sour tone (AUD/NZD +0.3%, NZD/USD -0.5%). RBNZ is expected to keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25% for the third consecutive meeting as geopolitical uncertainty and mixed data support the case for a pause. Markets currently assign c. 70% probability of a hold, with risks skewed to tightening.
GBP is also softer as energy is boosted on geopolitics, and GBP/USD reverses from the 1.35 mark after gains on bank holiday Monday.
EUR is one of the best-performing G10s as it resides a touch below 1.1650 after soft EZ, and hawkish US data pushed EUR/USD lower last week. The European docket for the remainder of the week, with EZ inflation and GDP data scheduled.

Central Banks

ECB's Schnabel said the ECB should raise rates in June, even if an Iran peace deal is struck, while she sees signs of energy inflation spillovers.
ECB's Lane said the ECB is not pre-committing to a particular path after June, Nikkei reported.
BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said higher long-term interest rates are being interpreted by markets as a sign of persistent inflation concerns worldwide, while he added that monetary policy will be guided appropriately to achieve the inflation goal stably and sustainably. Himino also commented that the economic outlook can change depending on the Middle East situation and they will consider the timing and pace of adjustment while monitoring how Middle East developments affect Japan's economy, prices and examining the likelihood of realising the baseline scenario. Furthermore, he said they will continue to raise the policy rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation according to economic activity, prices and financial conditions.

Fixed Income

Fixed benchmarks are mixed, but the bias throughout the European morning is negative. USTs are stronger (given the lack of settlement on Monday), Gilts play catch-up to peers (given Monday’s Bank Holiday), whilst Bunds move lower. To recap recent geopolitical updates, strength in fixed benchmarks was facilitated by the weekend's geopolitical positive updates, in which reports suggested that the US-Iran were nearing a deal. However, the complex then waned from overnight highs amidst reports of the US conducting “self-defence” strikes near Bandar Abbas. The move further exacerbated in European hours after the Iranian Supreme Leader said that America no longer has a safe haven in the Middle East, adding that the region will no longer serve as a shield for US bases.
Markets now remain attentive to whether Iran decides to physically retaliate against the US’s strikes, or whether a deal between the US and Iran can be ironed out. Geopolitics aside, the US data slate includes the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, CB Consumer Confidence and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index; in Europe, ECB speak from Sleijpen will be in focus.
USTs are firmer by c. 15 ticks, but off c. 10 ticks from Monday’s highs; currently trading within a 109-17 to 110-00 range.Elsewhere, Gilts are firmer by around 35 ticks and ultimately playing catch-up to the gap higher seen on Monday; UK paper trades within the 88.17 to 88.70 range. Finally, the German paper has moved lower this morning, given the positive bias seen in the crude complex. Bunds currently off by around 30 ticks and within a 125.95 to 126.26 range. Earlier, hawkish speak from Schnabel failed to move Bunds; she noted that the Bank should raise rates in June, even if a peace deal with Iran is struck.

Commodities

Crude futures rebound following yesterday's hefty losses, with Brent futures firmer by 3.50%, whilst WTI/Brent intraday change quotes diverge given the lack of WTI settlement due to the US holiday yesterday. In terms of geopolitics, US forces carried out “self-defence” strikes in southern Iran against missile launch sites and boats allegedly attempting to lay mines. CENTCOM said the strikes had concluded, “for now”. Over in Iran, the IRGC said Tehran has the right to respond to any US ceasefire breach, adding that it had identified hostile aircraft entering Iranian airspace over the Gulf and shot down an MQ-9 drone. To add, Supreme Leader Khamenei has reportedly yet to approve progress toward a potential US-Iran accord.
Brent Aug’26 resides towards the upper end of a USD 94.36-97.08/bbl range, while WTI Jul’26 sits in a USD 89.41-93.90/bbl band. Dutch TTF prices are firmer by some 4% intraday and back above the EUR 47/MWh mark after oscillating around EUR 46/MWh yesterday.
Spot gold falls with the yellow metal dipping under yesterday’s USD 4,549/oz low after matching the high at USD 4,580/oz, with today’s trough at USD 4,518/oz. Spot silver is also weaker, with prices slipping from a USD 78.39/oz to a current low at USD 75.73/oz.
Base metals are mixed with the LME returning from its long weekend. LME and CME copper trade relatively flat, with price action rather varied across different base metals. LME copper resides in a narrow USD 13.62k-13.73k/t range.
Malaysia has imposed a 10% import duty on some gold bar shipments.
UBS lowers year-end 2026 Gold price forecast to USD 5500/oz; citing persistent yield and USD headwinds

Geopolitics ex Iran

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov called US Secretary of State Rubio to urge the evacuation of US citizens and diplomats from Kyiv, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. Furthermore, the US State Department said Rubio exchanged views with Lavrov on the Russia-Ukraine war, bilateral relations and the situation with Iran.
South Korean military said North Korea fired an unidentified projectile, according to Yonhap.

US Event Calendar

8:30 am: United States Apr Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.03, prior -0.2
9:00 am: United States Mar FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0%
10:00 am: United States May Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 92, prior 92.8
10:30 am: United States May Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 0, prior -2.3
8:20 pm: United States Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Bank of Japan Conference

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

With the US and UK on holiday yesterday, we will include a brief look at the week ahead today and also briefly recap last week. My knowledge of the last 24 hours is slightly clouded by being far away from my screen, having spent yesterday managing a cricket tournament for 70 under nine children on our local village green, on what turned out to be the hottest day in May in UK history, surpassing the previous record set in 1944. It is fair to say that the real hero of the day was the driver of the ice cream van who swung by at just the right moment.

The team I coach won the group stage, only to lose in the semi final to the fourth place team that we had beaten earlier. The chairman has given me his backing to stay on in my post, but the children (mostly my two twins) were calling for me to be replaced. With player power being what it is these days, my days may be numbered.

Since the weekend, the real hope is that the days may also be numbered for the war in Iran as well, with momentum building since the start of the weekend that a deal could be in the works. Brent, which ended last week at $103.54/bbl, is this morning trading at $97.87/bbl, around -5.48% lower than Friday’s close.

However, Brent had got as low as $96.02 late yesterday before news overnight that US and Israeli jets conducted fresh strikes in Southern Iran, hitting missile launch sites and mine-laying boats. These actions were described as "defensive" and not an end to the ceasefire with Iran.
Net net, optimism is still elevated that an agreement can be made to end the war. We have been here before, of course, but it has felt for some time that the move towards peace has been three steps forward and one or two back. It is now 48 days since the main kinetic encounters, and my view for a while has been that such a prolonged truce and ceasefire would not have held if the US genuinely wanted to continue strikes, unless there was absolutely no alternative. Last night's targeted action is clearly a warning shot that the ceasefire is fragile though, so we will have to see what the next few days of negotiations bring.

This morning S&P 500 futures are +0.62% and NASDAQ futures +0.85% which is a few tenths of a percent lower than most of yesterday before the overnight strikes. In Asia, the KOSPI (+2.96%) is leading gains and reaching a new record but it was on holiday yesterday along with the Hang Seng (+0.53%). The Nikkei (-0.11%) is slightly lower with slightly bigger falls for the Shanghai Composite (-0.81%).

European equity futures are down two or three tenths but this follows a strong day on Monday with the DAX (+2.01%) strength typifying the move. Euro Stoxx (+1.11%) closed within a whisker of pre-Iran War levels and if you're looking for a highlight then the FTSE-MIB (+2.24%) finally cleared its all-time high last seen back in the year 2000!! So a momentous day for Italy!

10yr European bonds were around 9 to 12bps lower across the curve yesterday even if futures suggest a little bit of a sell off at the open. This morning 10yr USTs have reopened -5.1bps lower after the long weekend.

Moving on to the rest of this week, inflation once again dominates with important price data across the US, Europe and Japan. In the US, the clear focal point is Thursday’s April personal income and spending report (Thursday), which contains the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Our economists expect core PCE inflation at around +0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from March, with the year-on-year rate edging higher. This release matters not just for the inflation print itself, but for how it fits with the broader narrative of sticky services inflation and resilient demand. On the real economy side of the same report (Thursday), our economists expect momentum to cool after a very strong March, with personal consumption growth slowing back to around +0.3% month-on-month and personal income rising by roughly +0.4%.

This comes after a hawkish speech from Waller on Friday. He discussed how the recent labour market and inflation data had caused him to reevaluate the balance of risks with inflation becoming the “driving force” behind monetary policy in the near term. In particular, he noted that he would support changing language in the statement to remove the easing bias and make it clear that “a rate cut is no more likely in the future than a rate increase”. In light of this there is a lot of Fedspeak to watch this week. You can see a list in the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual but keep an eye on Minneapolis’s Kashkari (today) and Dallas’s Logan (tomorrow)—both of whom had dissented against the easing bias in the April statement. They are likely to repeat their view that the stance of monetary policy should be more balanced, particularly as inflation risks remain front of mind.

Staying with the Fed, last Friday, our Chief US economist, Matt Luzzetti, wrote an interesting piece entitled “overinsured” where he discusses how the Fed has delivered 175bps of rate cuts in this cycle even as inflation has remained well above target, framing the last round as “insurance” or “risk management” cuts in response to elevated downside labour market risks. Matt suggests that relative to a set of standard policy rules, the first set of cuts in 2024 was appropriate. But following the second set last year, and the recent acceleration of inflation, the fed funds rate is now significantly below all policy rule settings. This finding is robust to different plausible estimates of r-star and the use of economic forecasts instead of current inflation and unemployment in the policy rules. See Matt’s piece here for how future rate hikes might be interpreted as a prudent reversal of that insurance.

Beyond PCE, Thursday also brings durable goods orders (Thursday), where our economists look for a modest headline increase consistent with steady but unspectacular capital spending momentum. Earlier in the week, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index (tomorrow) is expected to edge lower, potentially reflecting the cumulative impact of higher rates and policy uncertainty. Weekly initial jobless claims (Thursday) remain an important high-frequency signal on labour market conditions, although holiday effects may add some volatility.

In Europe, attention turns to the May flash inflation prints at the end of the week, with Germany, France, Italy and Spain all reporting on Friday, ahead of the Eurozone aggregate the following week. Our economists expect inflation to remain above target across the region. Alongside the data, the ECB publishes the account of its April meeting (Thursday) and its Financial Stability Review (Wednesday), offering further insight into how policymakers are balancing lingering inflation pressures against softer growth and financial stability considerations.

In Asia, Japan is the key focus. Friday’s Tokyo CPI (Friday) will provide an early read on national inflation trends, alongside April industrial production and retail sales (Friday). Our economists expect inflation measures to firm modestly, underscoring that price pressures remain present even as activity data stay mixed. Elsewhere, China releases industrial profits (tomorrow), Australia publishes its April CPI (Wednesday), and the RBNZ announces its latest policy decision (tomorrow), where our economists expect the cash rate to be left unchanged.

On the corporate side, earnings highlights include US tech names such as Dell, Marvell and Salesforce, alongside consumer-facing firms including Costco and Dollar Tree, with most results clustered around mid-to-late week.

Recapping last week now, more for those who were off yesterday. Markets put in a strong performance overall, as hopes mounted for some kind of US-Iran deal. So that raised investor expectations that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen in the weeks ahead, which helped to bring down oil prices. Indeed, Brent crude fell -5.24% last week to $103.54/bbl, whilst WTI fell -8.37% to $96.60/bbl. Moreover, investors dialled back their expectations for a more protracted conflict, with the 6-month Brent future also down -2.97% last week to $88.28/bbl.

That decline in oil prices meant investor fears eased about a stagflationary shock to the global economy, supporting bonds and equities on both sides of the Atlantic. In fact, the S&P 500 posted an 8th consecutive weekly advance for the first time since 2023, rising another +0.88% over the week. And over in Europe, the STOXX 600 posted a +3.00% advance, closing at its highest level in the last month. Interestingly, the latest advance took place despite weakness among the big tech stocks, with the Magnificent 7 falling -0.76% last week, ending a run of 7 consecutive weekly gains.

With oil prices coming down, that also helped to ease fears about near-term inflation, which again was clear on both sides of the Atlantic. For instance, the US 1yr inflation swap fell -31.0bps to 3.11% and the Euro 1yr inflation swap fell -15.4bps to 3.62%. But despite easing fears on the inflation side, investors also dialled up the chance that the Fed would hike rates this year, with 24bp of rate hikes now priced by December. That included a +3.2bps rise on Friday as the University of Michigan survey showed 5-10 year expectations spiking from 3.4% to 3.9% in May and Fed Governor Waller struck a more hawkish tone, saying that he’d support removing the easing bias in the Fed’s statement. That backdrop meant that front-end Treasury yields continued to move higher last week, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +5.1bps to 4.12% (+3.9bps Friday), its highest level since February 2025. However, the 10yr yield came down, falling -3.5bps on the week to 4.56%.

In Europe however, sovereign bonds saw a much stronger rally thanks to the oil price declines, alongside worse-than-expected flash PMIs. So in contrast to the US, investors dialled back their expectations for rate hikes from the ECB this year. That meant just 65bps of hikes were priced by the December meeting, down from 75bps the previous week. In turn, yields fell across the continent, with the 10yr bund yield down -12.9bps to 3.04%, whilst 10yr gilt yields fell -27.5bps to 4.90%, marking their biggest weekly decline since 2023. Otherwise in fixed income, US credit markets outperformed last week, with IG (-1bps) and HY spreads (-7bps) tightening slightly. By contrast, European spreads widened, with both IG (+1bps) and HY spreads (+13bps) rising.

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