Goldman Calculates How Much Revenue Is Needed To Justify $1.7 Trillion In Hyperscaler Capex (And What It Leaves Out)

For the past two years, every since Goldman first poured cold water on the AI sector in the summer of 2024... 

... the question hanging over the AI trade hasn't been whether the hyperscalers can spend (they can, and will, and then some - most recently via bond markets, private credit and a proliferating zoo of SPVs, many of which have gottten monkeyhammered in recent days), but whether all that spending will ever earn anything (and, justs as importantly, how much). Now, after a Q2 earnings season in which consensus capex estimates were once again smashed higher, with most banks now expecting well over $1 trillion in spending in 2027, Goldman has decided to answer that question the old-fashioned way: with a spreadsheet.

First, the capex has already been "priced in"... after rising 66% in nine months