Goldman: Fast Food's 'Bang For The Buck' Gains As Casual Dining Appeal Craters

Goldman analyst Christine Cho has published her latest quarterly survey of 2,000 consumers for 1Q26, pointing to a softer restaurant environment. Muted demand backdrop suggests that the K-shaped economy continues to fester, with working-poor consumers still facing the greatest downward pressure.

Respondents expect their visits to limited-service restaurants (LSRs), restaurants where customers generally order and pay at a counter, kiosk, drive-thru, or app, such as McDonald's, Burger King, Wendy's, Chipotle, CAVA, Sweetgreen, Panera, and others, to hold steady for the next three months, while casual dining still has some room for visit growth, though at a slower pace than in prior quarters. 

The respondents under most pressure to spend on food away from home were among lower-income households, with roughly half of consumers earning under $70,000 saying they plan to dine out less.

Another key takeaway is the growing divide in perceptions of value. Fast food's "bang for the buck" has improved since 3Q25, while casual dining's value perception has deteriorated to the lowest level in Goldman's dataset.

Cho attributes the improvement in fast food partly to value menus, meal deals, and marketing tie-ins, which are boosting scores for value, quality, and willingness to pay more.

"Consumers still see grocery as better value," Cho noted.

Intention to spend was flat. 

GS Brand Scores — Major fast food brands showing sequential improvement with stepped-up value focus

Exhibit 11: Summary of GS Restaurant Survey Scores - % change vs. 3Q25 Summary

Exhibit 12: Summary of GS Restaurant Survey Scores - YoY % change Summary

Cho then covered which restaurant stocks looked the strongest or weakest in the survey:

Stock callouts. QSR was a standout in the monthly dashboard, showing trends consistent with higher brand scores vs. 3Q25 for Burger King (+6.5%), Popeyes (+3.6%), and Tim Hortons (+1.7%) in our survey. DRI remains a casual dining outlier as accelerating NPS trends align with positive transaction growth and an increase in Olive Garden brand score vs. 3Q25. MCD and YUM are successfully pivoting toward value-led growth, contrasting deterioration in conversion and quality scores at SG and BLMN.

The S&P 500 Restaurants Sub-Industry Index has largely traded sideways since early 2025. 

Our takeaway is that fast food's aggressive marketing of meal deals and other value offerings has clearly resonated with budget-conscious consumers amid K-shaped economy woes. 

Professional subscribers can read "Deep-dive into 1Q26 restaurant survey" at our new Marketdesk.ai portal