Goldman Now Expects A Fed Hike This Week, Not Because It's Needed, But Because Warsh Doesn't Want To Disappoint The Market

For much of 2026, Goldman stubbornly held on to the view that the Fed would not hike rates, despite mounting inflation pressure (the alternative is having to justify to its clients how the bank can be bullish in the face of what would certainly be another tightening cycle... an alternative which would see the bank miss out on billions in AI related advisory fees).

However, after Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech, and especially after last week's hotter than expected CPI print, it seemed that Goldman would have no choice but to throw in the towel and last Friday we started a countdown to Goldman changing its long-standing "no rate hike" view.