Goldman Sees S&P Plunging To 5,400 In "Severe Oil Supply Shock" Scenario

For the third time in a row, Wall Street's year-end forecasts (published in the final days of the prior year) are about to be discarded on the scrap heap of financial futility. Because after everyone in late 2023 predicted a recession in 2024 only to see stocks soar, and then literally everyone predicted a stock market collapse following the liberation day drawdown only to be caught dead wrong for the second year in a row, it is now the turn of overly optimistic forecasts from late 2025 to crash and burn as the global economy crash lands into the blocked Straits of Hormuz which will not only send global GDP sliding, but could lead to a quick bear market in stocks. 

That's the warning from Goldman's new chief US equity strategist, Ben Snider (who replaced David Kostin in that role late last year). According to Snider's latest Weekly note (available to pro subs), while the baseline outlook for US equities "remains constructive" (after all, while everyone wants to cover their ass following the recent market inflation point, nobody wants to be the first to call a recession their base case) as the S&P 500 has recently traded along its average path following previous geopolitical shocks...