Goldman Downgrades US Consumer, Says Working Poor Will Be Hit Especially Hard On Energy Shock

Goldman retail analyst Kate McShane struck a more cautious tone on the consumer in a note published Monday morning, warning that the Gulf energy shock is driving fuel prices higher and is set to squeeze the working poor's household discretionary spending the hardest. 

McShane's new assessment on the consumer now expects discretionary cash flow growth of 4.2% in 2026, down from her prior 5.1% forecast, a downgrade that leaves this year only marginally above 2025's 4.1%.