Goldman's Commodity Desk Lays Out The Oil Price Scenarios From Iran War

Ahead of what is likely to be chaotic trading in oil, which is already up well over 10% in weekend OTC trading, Goldman's trading desk including strategists Daan Struyven, Samantha Dart, Yulia Zhestkova-Grigsby and others, have shared their views on the risks to energy prices from the Iran war. We excerpt from the report (available to pro subs) below. 

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz--through which normally 20% of global supply for both oil and LNG flows--appears significantly disrupted as many shippers, oil producers, and insurers have shifted to a cautious wait-and-see mode amidst reports about damaged ships. We estimate the upside risks from developments in the Middle East. For now, our base case energy price forecasts, which assume no sustained supply disruptions, are unchanged.