Hartnett: The Four "C" Trades For When The War Ends

Whether he was lucky, or good, it may not matter - especially for those who made money on his short-term trade recommendation - but one week ago, Bank of America CIO Michael Hartnett wrote that in the last week of March, the sell signal ended (after the S&P tumbled almost 10% peak-to-trough since it was triggered in December); and noted that "with oil >$100/bbl, 30Y yields at 5%, and the S&P <6600 policy panic begins", which traditionally represents a key market inflection point.  

To be sure, we haven't yet observed the Fed unleash any panicked policy moves (although last week's Treasury-to-Oil correlation snapping certainly hinted that something is coming), but markets tend to price major moves before they happen and they certainly did that last week when the S&P surged 3.5%, ending a streak of 5 consecutive weeks lower and the best weekly return since November 25.