Here Is The First Bank To Make A 50bps Rate Cut This Month Its Base Case

Last week, even well before Friday's fire jobs report, we warned that the upcoming (Sept 9) annual benchmark revision of nonfarm payrolls will be i) huge, ii) negative, and iii) prompt calls for a 50bps rate cut (see "Brace For Another Huge Negative Payrolls Revision, Greenlighting A 50bps September Rate Cut"). Little did we know just how bad Friday's payrolls report would be, although we did benchmark it to where a 50bps rate cut would be in play, and sure enough as the Trump admin scrambles to kitchen sink all the putrid ugliness of the jobs data series ahead of the arrival of the new BLS commissioner, the data was downright catastrophic, yet not catastrophic enough to prompt banks to make a 50bps rate cut in less than 2 weeks by the Fed their base case. 

All except for one.