Here's How Markets Have Performed Since The Start Of America's MAGA Experiment

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

MAGA: I remember 2017 well. It brought me to one knee. Trump had won the election in late 2016. The world braced itself for the chaos that was to come. Of course, we should all have known better. That’s not how markets work. Only rarely does an Artificial Superintelligence give investors extraordinary profits without inflicting ungodly pain. When it does give unearned gifts, it is to tempt us to foolishly bet on the obvious in some future market cycle. No ASI would ever operate in consistently predictable ways. Anyhow, over the course of 2017, the beginning of America’s MAGA experiment, here’s what happened in markets: 

• Dec 31 2016 - Dec 12 2017: S&P 500 +19.0% and VIX -4.12 at +9.92. Nikkei +19.6%, Shanghai +5.7%, Euro Stoxx +8.4%, Bovespa +22.6%, MSCI World +19.0%, MSCI Emerging +29.0%, Bitcoin +1711.8%, and Ethereum +8063.3%. USD rose +9.2% vs Turkey, +2.1% vs Brazil, and +0.7% vs Indonesia. USD fell -10.4% vs Euro, --7.4% vs Mexico, -7.3% vs Sterling, -5.2% vs India, -4.7% vs China, -4.6% vs Australia, -4.3% vs Canada, -3.8% vs Russia, -2.9% vs Yen. Gold +6.2%, Silver -3.9%, Oil +0.3%, Copper +19.7%, Iron Ore -20.1%, Corn -10.6%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +3bps at 1.28%, US -5bps at 1.92%, JP -12bps at 0.47%, and UK +5bps at 3.07%). 2yr Notes +64bps at 1.83% and 10yr Notes -4bps at 2.40%.

MAGA II: In 2017, the stock market grinded higher all year in an unprecedented fashion, so that by Dec 12, 2017, the VIX was below 10. Investors sold volatility aggressively, and the more they sold, the lower the VIX fell, reflexively. Which created the conditions for a series of volatility spikes that climaxed in Covid. In this first year of Trump II, we endured Independence Day, the VIX index hit 60, and we suffered so many policy flip flops that they barely affect the market at this point. Here’s how markets have done in the second stage of America’s MAGA experiment:

• Dec 31 2024 - Dec 12 2025: S&P 500 +16.6% and VIX -1.67 at +15.68. Nikkei +27.4%, Shanghai +16.1%, Euro Stoxx +14.3%, Bovespa +32.8%, MSCI World +19.9%, MSCI Emerging +28.0%, Bitcoin -2.5%, and Ethereum -4.0%. USD rose +20.8% vs Turkey, +5.6% vs India, and +3.3% vs Indonesia. USD fell -29.9% vs Russia, -16.1% vs Sweden, -13.3% vs Mexico, -12.3% vs Brazil, -11.8% vs Euro, -6.8% vs Australia, -6.3% vs Sterling, -4.2% vs Canada, -3.3% vs China, and -0.9% vs Yen. Gold +55.0%, Silver +101.7%, Oil -15.6%, Copper +28.8%, Iron Ore +1.3%, Corn -2.5%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +2bps at 1.79%, US -7bps at 2.27%, JP +31bps at 1.78%, and UK -50bps at 3.01%). 2yr Notes -71bps at 3.53% and 10yr Notes -39bps at 4.19%.

MAGA III: There is so much more to America than its politics. At its core, America is the greatest business enterprise the world has ever known. Politicians fight over the fair distribution of its spoils, while engaging in international policy experiments that shift from generation to generation. It appears we’ve entered a phase that’s more focused on the Western Hemisphere than Europe and Asia. Investors will look to historical periods for parallels. Perhaps they’ll find some that prove helpful. Definitive. I’m of the mind to keep mine open, searching our Artificial Superintelligence for signals, signs. Here’s how markets have performed since the start of America’s MAGA experiment in late 2016:

• Dec 31 2016 - Dec 12 2025: S&P 500 +207% and VIX +1.41 at +15.45. Nikkei +166%, Shanghai +26%, Euro Stoxx +61%, Bovespa +166%, MSCI World +154%, MSCI Emerging +60%, Bitcoin +9497%, and Ethereum +40147%. USD rose +1111% vs Turkey, +67% vs Brazil, +36% vs Chile, +33% vs Yen, +33% vs India, +29% vs Russia, +24% vs Indonesia, +23% vs South Africa, +9% vs Australia, +3% vs Canada, +2% vs Sweden, and +2% vs China. USD fell -13% vs Mexico, -10% vs Euro, and -8% vs Sterling. Gold +271%, Silver +288%, Oil +0.5%, Copper +115%, Iron Ore +21%, Corn +14.4%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +54bps at 1.79%, US +30bps at 2.27%, JP +119bps at 1.78%, and UK -1bp at 3.01%). 2yr Notes +235bps at 3.54% and 10yr Notes +174bps at 4.18%.