How The 2026 Midterms Will Shape Trump's Two Core Policies

With less than a year from 2026's main event, the November midterms, it's time to start thinking big picture. 

As Deutsche Bank's Henry Allen shows in his Chart of the Day below, history is overwhelmingly against the incumbent President’s party in these votes. On 18 out of 20 occasions since WWII, they’ve lost seats in the House of Representatives. The clearest exception to that came in 2002, when President Bush was experiencing strong approval ratings after 9/11, so a very different context.